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[WJV031]

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[candbgirl]

I’m not sure we can answer this because you haven’t given us anything to work with. We can say that out of all applicants each cycle only around 40% are accepted anywhere and of that number about half are accepted at only one school. So that leaves around 60% outright rejected including some with stellar applications. Applying to med school is a crap shoot at best . So who knows really. But if there are some schools that you really want a chance at you need to apply to get accepted. It’s kind of getting late, so rank the secondaries you have left and get to work. Good luck.

 

[LindaAccepted]

If you want to minimize the likelihood that you will need to reapply, keep sending out those secondaries as rapidly as you can while maintaining quality until you have an acceptance from a school that you want to attend more than any of the remaining schools where you need to submit an application. Send first the IS ones (if you haven't already) and the ones you want to attend most.

Unless you're satisfied with a 20% chance that you get in nowhere, keep on doing those secondaries.

 

[Goro]

Background: LM of 79, CA ORM.

I've been applying broadly to schools because I'm a late applicant. I've submitted ~25 secondaries since being verified last month and have since received 3 interview invites from OOS schools, 1 T20 and 2 mid/low tier.

I've estimated that, assuming I am an average interviewer, I have around a 1 - (0.6*0.4*0.8) = ~80% chance at getting into at least one school at this point. However, I'm not sure if interviewing late would make these post-II acceptance rates inapplicable to my situation given that I'm interviewing in October.

Generally speaking, am I safe to begin focusing on only applying to T20s? I want to ensure that I turn in the rest of my secondaries ASAP, especially for top schools. I still have a decent number of mid-tiers like Morsani, OHSU and Geisel that I haven't applied to. Interested in matching into a competitive specialty but also want to avoid needing to reapply next cycle. Thanks in advance!

Never. High stats insure nothing. Also, there are at least 30 schools in the T20

 

[KnightDoc]

I’m not sure we can answer this because you haven’t given us anything to work with. We can say that out of all applicants each cycle only around 40% are accepted anywhere and of that number only about half are accepted at one school. So that leaves around 60% outright rejected including some with stellar applications. Applying to med school is a crap shoot at best . So who knows really. But if there are some schools that you really want a chance at you need to apply to get accepted. It’s kind of getting late, so rank the secondaries you have left and get to work. Good luck.

THIS^^^^. You are doing GREAT so far, especially considering you are a late CA ORM applicant. What you are really asking, though, is whether we can extrapolate from your early success and give you the green light to focus on T20 going forward. No such thing.

No way to know how you are going to interview, or whether your early success is a harbinger of things to come, or all you are going to receive. Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts here. Right now, only 1/3 of your IIs is a T20. Plus, it's how many weeks since you were complete at those schools, and that T20? No, it's never safe to focus only on T20s, for anyone, including a CA ORM with a 79 LM at the end of September.

OTOH, you've already applied to 25 schools. Just how many more are we talking about here?

 

[KnightDoc]

Couldn't have said it better myself! This is essentially what I'm wondering about. I realize that there are too many factors involved here to receive a definitive answer, so I was hoping to get some anecdotal experience from others who had applied late or understand what outcomes are usually like for late applicants.


I have 55 schools on my list, many of which I probably won't be able to complete. My first interview is in mid October so I'd like to be finished with secondaries before then.


It's been 4 for those two, 3 for the T20. Why is this relevant?

Okay, now that you fleshed it out a little, we can give you some more focused guidance. 55 schools is excessive for anyone, and just throwing a crazy amount of applications at the wall at the last minute won't mitigate being late, since, from this point forward, you would just be late 30 times! 🙂

The good news is that you already have 25 in, and have 3 IIs, including 1 T20, which is way better than the vast majority of the pool, especially at this point in the cycle. I applied to 30 schools, which I thought was a lot. You are never going to do a good job applying to 30 more schools at this point in the cycle.

If you are comfortable sharing where you already applied (no need to identify the IIs) and the remaining 30 schools, I'm sure people will have specific opinions on where to go from here. As I suggested in my earlier post, I'd keep the list broad rather than focusing on T20. I honestly don't think you need more than 10 more schools to get wherever it is you are going.

If you are comfortable sharing your two lists and your stats, I'd be happy to suggest an additional 10 or so schools to apply to, given the fact you are already a month late. Again, given the fact that you are already complete at 25 schools and have 3 IIs, with more possibly on the way, you very well might already be set, but I appreciate the anxiety over not finishing what you set out to do.

If throwing in a few more applications helps you sleep and feel better about the cycle, I think you should go for it. But you don't need 55 apps, and unless you already have very few T20s, you shouldn't be focusing on them going forward. JMHO as someone who wasn't late, applied broadly, and applied to a little more than half of 55. 🙂

 

[KnightDoc]

It's been 4 for those two, 3 for the T20. Why is this relevant?

The relevance of when you were complete is both to see whether you were in before the magical Labor Day SDN guideline, and to see how how schools are prioritizing you by measuring how long it is taking you to hear back once complete. You were in before Labor Day, and you are hearing within one month, not two or more, so you are getting bumped to the top of at least a few piles.

This is all very good, and indicates that it would not be a waste of time and money to throw in a few more applications at the end of September! That's the relevance!!! 🙂

 

[voxveritatisetlucis]

Background: LM of 79, CA ORM.

I've been applying broadly to schools because I'm a late applicant. I've submitted ~25 secondaries since being verified last month and have since received 3 interview invites from OOS schools, 1 T20 and 2 mid/low tier.

I've estimated that, assuming I am an average interviewer, I have around a 1 - (0.6*0.4*0.8) = ~80% chance at getting into at least one school at this point. However, I'm not sure if interviewing late would make these post-II acceptance rates inapplicable to my situation given that I'm interviewing in October.

Generally speaking, am I safe to begin focusing on only applying to T20s? I want to ensure that I turn in the rest of my secondaries ASAP, especially for top schools. I still have a decent number of mid-tiers like Morsani, OHSU and Geisel that I haven't applied to. Interested in matching into a competitive specialty but also want to avoid needing to reapply next cycle. Thanks in advance!

Keep in mind that most T20 schools have lower than average post II acceptance rates. If you have already taken a chance at a handful of reach schools, why not add a bunch of schools T20-T50?

might also be a good idea to scroll through school specific threads to see what schools are already booking into November/December. Of course you could still get an II at schools with early cycles but it’s probably less likely

 

[KnightDoc]

Okay, no quote! 🙂

Your initial list looks great, with the exception of CNU. If you've been on their thread, you know why. Based on your stats alone, you don't need them, and, if they are your only A, you are probably better off addressing whatever deficiencies you have and being a reapplicant as opposed to going there. PLEASE tell me that's not one of your As!!!!

Other than that, I really love your initial list. You're not showing us another 30 schools, so it looks like you've edited your list down to the T20s! That's fine if that's what you want, since I honestly think your initial list is broad enough that I think all of the additional schools are extra anyway. With your stats, I wouldn't bother with low yield schools, especially not at this late date.

Unless you've got some crazy special ECs you haven't disclosed, though, schools like Stanford, Mayo and NYU might be donations this late. It's only money if you have your heart set on them, but, still. FWIW, BU is also a low yield school. Given all the other top schools you listed, why not Pritzker or Vandy?

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

Sorry to say that your stats are not that solid for T20’s. GPA is marginally below median for all the t20’s. Focus on mid tier if you have limited amount of time.

 

[KnightDoc]

Sorry to say that your stats are not that solid for T20’s. GPA is marginally below median for all the t20’s. Focus on mid tier if you have limited amount of time.

Respectfully disagree. 523 is above median everywhere, and 3.75, while lowish for T5, is perfectly fine elsewhere. Add onto that the fact that he already has one T20, and there is no basis for what you are saying. Marginally below a median means nothing when a full half of every class, at every school in the country, is at least marginally below their medians. 🙂

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

Any suggestions for more mid-tiers to add? I've got Morsani, OHSU, Geisel, Emory, Case Western on my list.

Maybe Brown, BU, and Quinnipiac. Overall, your list is good. You just need luck. It looks like Pitt is the t20 II. Maybe add WashU because of your MCAT.

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

Respectfully disagree. 523 is above median everywhere, and 3.75, while lowish for T5, is perfectly fine elsewhere. Add onto that the fact that he already has one T20, and there is no basis for what you are saying. Marginally below a median means nothing when a full half of every class, at every school in the country, is at least marginally below their medians. 🙂

The stats aren’t that huge of an advantage when one of the numbers is below the mean. They can get around 300 people to have both 523 and 3.9.

 

[KnightDoc]

The stats aren’t that huge of an advantage when one of the numbers is below the mean. They can get around 300 people to have both 523 and 3.9.

Correct. I'm not saying they are a huge advantage. I'm just saying they are fine.

523 is 99%-ile, and 3.75 is respectable. I'm not sure who "they" is, but there are only around 700 +/- people in the country each year with a 523+, with or without a 3.9, and there are over 2,000 T20 seats.

So, just how many of your 300 are going to each of the T20, especially once you get out of the T5 and T10? 🙂 It's not all about stats, anywhere, but @MDor***'s stats are just fine for T20. I'm pretty confident no school outside the T5 can get anywhere near 300, 200, 100, or even 50 people to matriculate with 3.9+/523+, given how few of them exist and how many end up at T5s.

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

Correct. I'm not saying they are a huge advantage. I'm just saying they are fine.

523 is 99%-ile, and 3.75 is respectable. I'm not sure who "they" is, but there are only around 700 +/- people in the country each year with a 523+, with or without a 3.9, and there are over 2,000 T20 seats.

So, just how many of your 300 are going to each of the T20, especially once you get out of the T5 and T10? 🙂 It's not all about stats, anywhere, but @MDor***'s stats are just fine for T20. I'm pretty confident no school outside the T5 can get anywhere near 300, 200, 100, or even 50 people to matriculate with 3.9+/523+, given how few of them exist and how many end up at T5s.

They are respectable but nowhere near stellar to warrant exclusive focus on t20’s. Plenty people with OP’s stats end up getting only one A to a mid tier school.

 

[KnightDoc]

They are respectable but nowhere near stellar to warrant exclusive focus on t20’s. Plenty people with OP’s stats end up getting only one A to a mid tier school.

Correct. Who said anything about exclusive focus on T20? He posted a list of 26 schools he already applied to. Literally 20 of them are not T20! He can apply to all 14 of the T20s he missed, and his list would still "only" be 50% T20, so where does exclusive focus come from here?

 

[srirachamayonnaise]

Correct. Who said anything about exclusive focus on T20? He posted a list of 26 schools he already applied to. Literally 20 of them are not T20! He can apply to all 14 of the T20s he missed, and his list would still "only" be 50% T20, so where does exclusive focus come from here?

OP was asking whether they should direct their limited attention to t20’s exclusively at this point based on the stats. My answer is no, focus on mid tier if possible.

 

[KnightDoc]

OP was asking whether they should direct their limited attention to t20’s exclusively at this point based on the stats. My answer is no, focus on mid tier if possible.

Okay. And my answer would be that because 77% of the applications he already submitted are outside the T20, he can and should do whatever he wants with the remaining, late submissions. He already covered the mid tiers. He's good, even if he doesn't submit any additional applications at all.

It's all gravy at this point, and he really doesn't need any more mid tiers with a 3.75/523. As I said, he could throw in an additional 14 applications, ALL to T20, and still only be 50% T20. Is that really too top heavy for someone with a 3.75/523?

 

[DoctorFate]

Interviewing in October is pretty much on time. I would only consider post-thanksgiving interviews late. So I think your general stats would hold true, although, of course, you can't use population based stats to predict individual outcomes (especially ones that aren't independent) with any meaningful level of accuracy.