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Your stats are definitely good for midtier. Do you have any substantive leadership experiences? Top 25 will unfortunately be very challenging without leadership and other 'interesting' experiences.
how do I know which schools are midtier? is mt sinai mid tier?
sorry what do you mean by leadership exp? i hate premed clubs and have no time for other orgs. hmmm i have taught other students how to do certain procedures (staining, passaging, background theory, etc) in the biology research lab lab does that count lol?
actually looking into the future I might not get the pub on time - will this hurt my application a lot? is it worth delaying my application because of it?
"mid-tier" is a completely arbitrary term. I would consider any school of 'medium' competitiveness to be mid-tier, which would likely fall in the range of 32-35 median MCATs and around a 3.7 GPA, which you seem to fall under.
Mt. Sinai is quite competitive, particularly because it's in NYC, so I would consider it either lower high-tier or upper mid-tier. The boundaries are never exact and are completely subject to interpretation.
You don't need to do pre-med clubs, just find a hobby or club that you like and get some leadership positions. "No time" is not an excuse as these organizations usually take up a minimal amount of time. You should also not really be that pressed for time academically in undergrad, and adcoms know that.
As for the pub, having one accepted/published will boost your application a little, but not having one won't hurt you by any means. If you are delaying applying just for a pub, it would not be worth it, however if you can add some substantial experiences (could be anything, teaching, travelling, whatever, as long as it's substantive) under your belt in a gap year, those experiences can potentially look very good to adcoms.
so mentoring others in lab wont count as leadership exp?
doesnt tutoring kinda count as leadership? is it possible to have a "leadership" role without having an officer position in a club?
with my current stats, are my chances good for at least 1 tx md school? if I apply to 10 top 25 schools will i get any love from any of them?