48% Acceptances

[YLFounder]

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Recently, I was reading Kaplan's "How to Get Into Medical School" and it states that 48% of applicants get accepted by medical schools. Keeping that in mind, I was wondering how bad do you have to be to actually get rejected from a low-tier school? Because everyone on SDN seems optimistic about everybody's chances for getting into state schools and the like, are these statistics coming from the fact that some people apply to medical school on a whim, or what?

 

[Ace-Co-A]

The answer to your question begins here.

Good stats are the starting point. Qualified applicants are rejected for numerous reasons: lack of clinical exposure, lack of volunteer work, poor interviewing skills, poor writing skills, applying late, etc.

 

[sourdoughllama]

Recently, I was reading Kaplan's "How to Get Into Medical School" and it states that 48% of applicants get accepted by medical schools. Keeping that in mind, I was wondering how bad do you have to be to actually get rejected from a low-tier school? Because everyone on SDN seems optimistic about everybody's chances for getting into state schools and the like, are these statistics coming from the fact that some people apply to medical school on a whim, or what?

I don't think you're reading the same forums as everyone else. People are more harsh on here than in real life

 

[chenzt]

Recently, I was reading Kaplan's "How to Get Into Medical School" and it states that 48% of applicants get accepted by medical schools. Keeping that in mind, I was wondering how bad do you have to be to actually get rejected from a low-tier school? Because everyone on SDN seems optimistic about everybody's chances for getting into state schools and the like, are these statistics coming from the fact that some people apply to medical school on a whim, or what?

https://www.aamc.org/download/321494/data/2013factstable17.pdf

Um... acceptance rate hasn't been that high since 2002. It's more like 42%. Unless they're doing funky math and counting multiple acceptances more than once.

 

[YLFounder]

People are harsh, but there are nice people on here too. I plan on applying to UAB as my first choice, and everyone says that people can get in with a 3.5 GPA. So it doesn't seem to match up with the book statistics which is where my confusion began.

 

[SN12357]

https://www.aamc.org/download/321494/data/2013factstable17.pdf

Um... acceptance rate hasn't been that high since 2002. It's more like 42%. Unless they're doing funky math and counting multiple acceptances more than once.

48% could be the percentage of people accepted if you lump the MD and DO applicant pools together, maybe? That AAMC table is only MD applicants.

 

[Aerus]

People are harsh, but there are nice people on here too. I plan on applying to UAB as my first choice, and everyone says that people can get in with a 3.5 GPA. So it doesn't seem to match up with the book statistics which is where my confusion began.

If the average accepted person's GPA is around a 3.7, obviously people get accepted with a 3.5.

 

[YLFounder]

The websites that I've looked at, (like UAB) don't have an average GPA of accepted applicants and average MCAT scores. They have a minimum, but nothing which could help me gauge my chances. Any suggestions on where to look? I'm sorry about so many questions!

 

[darkjedi]

If the average accepted person's GPA is around a 3.7, obviously people get accepted with a 3.5.

Effing Stats, how do they work?

 

[sourdoughllama]

The websites that I've looked at, (like UAB) don't have an average GPA of accepted applicants and average MCAT scores. They have a minimum, but nothing which could help me gauge my chances. Any suggestions on where to look? I'm sorry about so many questions!

https://services.aamc.org/30/msar/home
You gotta buy a subscription though. It'll be worth it - trust the cheapskate

 

[Reckoner]

The websites that I've looked at, (like UAB) don't have an average GPA of accepted applicants and average MCAT scores. They have a minimum, but nothing which could help me gauge my chances. Any suggestions on where to look? I'm sorry about so many questions!

MSAR gives you a range of scores. US News gives you averages. They both cost money, however. Calling admissions offices and asking them is a free alternative. You should use the search function and read the stickies posted on the front page of this sub-forum.

 

[Entadus]

People are harsh, but there are nice people on here too. I plan on applying to UAB as my first choice, and everyone says that people can get in with a 3.5 GPA. So it doesn't seem to match up with the book statistics which is where my confusion began.

Yes, they could get in.... but will they? It's not a guarantee. They might.

For example, applying broadly to a dozen "low-tiers", you can get 11 rejections, but if you get that one acceptance, you have had success. Typically 48% (42%?) of the applicant pool has this success. The grim reality is that schools dole out mostly rejections

 

[LostinLift]

Yea acceptance rate for MD last year was 41.7% ~48,000 apps for ~20,500 spots. I'm guessing there were even more applicants this year.

If you have the whole package - good numbers, good ECs, good letters, good essays, apply early, not a creep - you will undoubtedly get in somewhere. Problem is not everyone has that. The people with the fewest of these things will likely find themselves empty handed (empty inboxed?).

 

[Gregor Wiesmann]

48%.......I wonder what that number is when you take out all of the people who apply who have a GPA below 3.5?(Just curious, don't be mad at me) Or what about the people who apply to schools out of their stat range, or who don't even apply to enough schools? What about the people who didn't even bother to check that school's specific pre-req's?

 

[Boolean]

48%.......I wonder what that number is when you take out all of the people who apply who have a GPA below 3.5?(Just curious, don't be mad at me) Or what about the people who apply to schools out of their stat range, or who don't even apply to enough schools? What about the people who didn't even bother to check that school's specific pre-req's?

This removes an awful lot of the applicant pool.

 

[Gregor Wiesmann]

This removes an awful lot of the applicant pool.

Yes! Exactly what I was getting at. Premeds will probably look up the statistics on acceptance rates and think, "Oh no! I'll never have a chance at getting into a Medical School!" I wonder what the acceptance rate is for "qualified" applicants, those who have a GPA of 3.5+, MCAT 30+, all pre-reqs done, and who apply to 10-15 schools(MD and DO)? *Yes, I know people with stats below these get accepted*

 

[Lucca]

If the average accepted person's GPA is around a 3.7, obviously people get accepted with a 3.5.

Wrong, on SDN a 3.7 average means that the bottom 1% of applicants have a 3.7. Apply broadly and mostly DO.

 

[Boolean]

Wrong, on SDN a 3.7 average means that the bottom 1% of applicants have a 3.7. Apply broadly and mostly DO.

SDN Maths: Statistics 2 Da Extremes

 

[Itisneverlupus]

48%.......I wonder what that number is when you take out all of the people who apply who have a GPA below 3.5?(Just curious, don't be mad at me) Or what about the people who apply to schools out of their stat range, or who don't even apply to enough schools? What about the people who didn't even bother to check that school's specific pre-req's?

I honestly think this might be a helpful way to look at it. I don't know what the results would be, but it's important to understand that the above applicants (issues with EC, numbers, etc.) are not taken out of the statistics for acceptance/rejection.

That's being said, it might save people some worry to take those percentages with a grain of salt (not sure how much, as I can't speak on how the stats would change), considering what was posted above.

 

[Lucca]

SDN Maths: Statistics 2 Da Extremes

This week's lecture: "If you want to be average, be an outlier."

 

[Itisneverlupus]

This week's lecture: "If you want to be average, be an outlier."

Every applicant is truly unique...just like all of the others.

 

[Boolean]

I honestly think this might be a helpful way to look at it. I don't know what the results would be, but it's important to understand that the above applicants (issues with EC, numbers, etc.) are not taken out of the statistics for acceptance/rejection.

That's being said, it might save people some worry to take those percentages with a grain of salt (not sure how much, as I can't speak on how the stats would change), considering what was posted above.

I think we should also consider the fact that there is a decent number of applicants who simply aren't as neurotic as we are. I can guarantee you the active members of this forum know an awful lot about the admissions process, sure, but that doesn't mean those who aren't knowledgable don't necessarily succeed (they just may not apply to their full potential, i.e. Applying well below their LizzyM score)

 

[Itisneverlupus]

I think we should also consider the fact that there is a decent number of applicants who simply aren't as neurotic as we are. I can guarantee you the active members of this forum know an awful lot about the admissions process, sure, but that doesn't mean those who aren't knowledgable don't necessarily succeed (they just may not apply to their full potential, i.e. Applying well below their LizzyM score)

Sure, I can see that. I was simply trying to point out that "48%" or 41% are just numbers. Of course, they represent something scary for many premeds, but I don't believe that the numbers should be absorbed without taking many other factors into consideration.

After all, they were meant to give some dry information for those that are interested.

 

[Reckoner]

48%.......I wonder what that number is when you take out all of the people who apply who have a GPA below 3.5?(Just curious, don't be mad at me) Or what about the people who apply to schools out of their stat range, or who don't even apply to enough schools? What about the people who didn't even bother to check that school's specific pre-req's?

Well yeah, but on the other hand what about all the people who start pre-med, **** the bed in organic or on the MCAT, and decide that a career in marketing is their true calling?

You're right in saying the stat isn't useful to an SDN demigod unless you exclude the unwashed masses, but keep in mind the majority of people seeing that statistic aren't going to be SDN demigods. I agree that it's a pretty useless number for individuals in general though. It tells you nothing about your chances of getting in to the schools you applied to with your application.

 

[Gregor Wiesmann]

Well yeah, but on the other hand what about all the people who start pre-med, **** the bed in organic or on the MCAT, and decide that a career in marketing is their true calling?

You're right in saying the stat isn't useful to an SDN demigod unless you exclude the unwashed masses, but keep in mind the majority of people seeing that statistic aren't going to be SDN demigods. I agree that it's a pretty useless number for individuals in general though. It tells you nothing about your chances of getting in to the schools you applied to with your application.

And chances are, the acceptance rate will probably increase in order to reduce the upcoming Physician shortage, right?

 

[Itisneverlupus]

And chances are, the acceptance rate will probably increase in order to reduce the upcoming Physician shortage, right?

Depends. If more spots become available while the applicant pool also increases in size, the acceptance rates may not climb too much, even though more individuals are getting into med school.

 

[Goro]

Not on a whim...some people apply who have no business applying. For one, think single digit MCAT scores. I am NOT making this up!

Recently, I was reading Kaplan's "How to Get Into Medical School" and it states that 48% of applicants get accepted by medical schools. Keeping that in mind, I was wondering how bad do you have to be to actually get rejected from a low-tier school? Because everyone on SDN seems optimistic about everybody's chances for getting into state schools and the like, are these statistics coming from the fact that some people apply to medical school on a whim, or what?

 

[YLFounder]

Yes! Exactly what I was getting at. Premeds will probably look up the statistics on acceptance rates and think, "Oh no! I'll never have a chance at getting into a Medical School!" I wonder what the acceptance rate is for "qualified" applicants, those who have a GPA of 3.5+, MCAT 30+, all pre-reqs done, and who apply to 10-15 schools(MD and DO)? *Yes, I know people with stats below these get accepted*

So are you saying that the 48% success rate is actually suppose to be higher than what is listed? Because the underqualified are being factored in as well?

 

[Aerus]

Yes! Exactly what I was getting at. Premeds will probably look up the statistics on acceptance rates and think, "Oh no! I'll never have a chance at getting into a Medical School!" I wonder what the acceptance rate is for "qualified" applicants, those who have a GPA of 3.5+, MCAT 30+, all pre-reqs done, and who apply to 10-15 schools(MD and DO)? *Yes, I know people with stats below these get accepted*

Just be qualified...nbd

 

[Mr Roboto]

You mean a Caribbean school? I don't think they reject people who qualify for loans and have a pulse.

Actually, a pulse might be optional.

I was wondering how bad do you have to be to actually get rejected from a low-tier school

 

[LizzyM]

I don't feel like finding the link so just google AAMC Table 25. You'll see the proportion of applicants with various combinations of gpa and MCAT who are admitted and you can view tables stratified by race. You'll see that there are even applicants with MCAT scores in the top 2% and GPA>3.8 who don't get in anywhere. And there are some applicants with MCAT < 25 and GPA < 3.0 who get in.

With regard to the statement that if the average is 3.7 then some people with 3.5 must be admitted, this is true only if there is a normal distribution to GPA and that is a huge assumption. It might be possible for the minimum GPA to be 3.6 with most students having 3.6, some with 3.7 and a long tail of applicants with 3.8 and higher that would give a mean (and median) of 3.7 but no on with a 3.5. This is called a skewed distribution and it is very common if a school has a minimum floor for GPA, MCAT, etc

 

[DokterMom]

I was wondering how bad do you have to be to actually get rejected from a low-tier school?

This is such the wrong question! Most "low-tier" medical schools have acceptance rates of 5% or so. Yeah, seriously. Compare that to Harvard's recently-published undergrad acceptance rate of 5.9%. So an applicant is statistically more likely to be accepted to Harvard than to a 'low-tier' medical school.

So how bad do you have to be to get accepted to Harvard?

Now most applicants will apply to 15-20 US MD schools, so not just one. And while you can't just say "5% x 20 schools = ~100% chance of admissions" you can dramatically improve your odds of acceptance by applying to multiple schools -- assuming you have the minimum or higher qualifications. As @Goro noted, you can expect to bat 0/130 if your MCAT is sub-20 or GPA is too low.

The better question - the real question - is how excellent do you need to be, assuming you apply widely and aren't picky about where you'll go?

For that, buy the MSAR and look to the 10% - 50% - 90% statistics. For those, I'd suggest that if your ECs are truly exceptional, either your GPA or MCAT is well above the 50%, and your weaker GPA/MCAT is above the 10% -- then apply. If your ECs are pretty average, then your GPA and MCAT better be average or better.

And also bear in mind how many people apply to those 'low tier' schools. Even the brightest and highest-stat applicants have 'safety' schools...

 

[Gregor Wiesmann]

So are you saying that the 48% success rate is actually suppose to be higher than what is listed? Because the underqualified are being factored in as well?

Yes, exactly! I'm saying that on average, based on the criteria I gave for a "qualified" applicant, their chances of getting an acceptance is probably a lot greater than 48%.

 

[Tommyguns89]

Wrong, on SDN a 3.7 average means that the bottom 1% of applicants have a 3.7. Apply broadly and mostly DO.

To be fair, those that get in with a lower than average GPA for that school probably have a higher than average MCAT for that school(or some other factor that other applicants dont have working for them).

 

[Tommyguns89]

I don't feel like finding the link so just google AAMC Table 25. You'll see the proportion of applicants with various combinations of gpa and MCAT who are admitted and you can view tables stratified by race. You'll see that there are even applicants with MCAT scores in the top 2% and GPA>3.8 who don't get in anywhere. And there are some applicants with MCAT < 25 and GPA < 3.0 who get in.

With regard to the statement that if the average is 3.7 then some people with 3.5 must be admitted, this is true only if there is a normal distribution to GPA and that is a huge assumption. It might be possible for the minimum GPA to be 3.6 with most students having 3.6, some with 3.7 and a long tail of applicants with 3.8 and higher that would give a mean (and median) of 3.7 but no on with a 3.5. This is called a skewed distribution and it is very common if a school has a minimum floor for GPA, MCAT, etc

Do schools have hard floors like that in practice? Like everything about an applicant is good except he has a 3.57 instead of 3.6(using your example). Does he get filtered out at the start?

 

[LizzyM]

Do schools have hard floors like that in practice? Like everything about an applicant is good except he has a 3.57 instead of 3.6(using your example). Does he get filtered out at the start?

Yes. However, I doubt that any school has a floor as high as 3.6 but I guess anything is possible. Also, some schools will have a hard floor except for applicants who bring "something special" to the table which is code for racial diversity or a ton of alumni connections/money.