There are several programs others have listed as interview offers and rejections, and I've received neither. Do I assume I'm on a wait list? Or would I have been notified? Limbo sucks!
My experience was, if I didn't get an offer with the first go round, it generally meant rejection (with only one exception out of the 70 I applied to). But remember, it only takes ONE to get ine. Just make the best of each interview you have and keep your head up. The fat lady hasn't even put her dress on yet, much less is she ready to break any windows. 😎
That's the way I've been looking at it. I don't think it should make a big difference how many applicants there are once you have a good number of interviews, but the high number of applicants makes landing the interview that much harder. There should either be a larger number of people with few or no interviews, or everyone will have fewer on average, but I think if you can get 10 you should be fine. According to "charting outcomes in the match," the magic number last year actually looked like it was closer to seven ranks to really feel pretty sure about matching, although there were lots of people with 15+.As a side note, does anyone have any thought as to whether or not the unusually high volume of qualified candidates this year will affect the likelihood of matching for a given number of interviews? Like, if someone has 10 interviews this year, do you think that they would have the same likelihood of matching as they would have in previous years? I'm hoping that the hard part this year is getting the interviews...
Are the number of applicants really even up? It seems like this year there are about ~170 applicants for about ~130 spots (last year there were 147 spots). I remember a few years ago the ratio used to be 2:1, so this year and last year, the odds were much better. Granted, this pool is self-selected. The thing that is changing is probably more and more people are doing research before they apply, so the research is not enough to stand out anymore!
Bottom line-- rad onc is competitive and will probably continue to be so for the next few years. After that, who knows? Our health care system is likely to change in the next few years and this may affect what fields medical students choose to go into. Go into a field because you like it and you'll be happy in the end!