Am I seriously doomed?

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A question I'd like to throw out:

What happens to the bottom 30% of US allopathic grads? Honestly, all my NBME performances thus far (Step I and shelf exams around -1 SD) put me in this group.

What I would really like is to match an IM program with a good name in a good city. I'm not talking top tier here, but more like the mid-tier/well-respected ones with relatively impressive fellowship matches. If it makes a difference, I go to a mid-tier medical school in a desirable city right now. Currently a 3rd year. I'm hoping to take step II early and do well, but for arguments sake, let's just say I stay in the same general percentile.

Thanks for the help.
 
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Seriously, 50% of applicants are below average, yet when you read all the residency websites they all say their applicants are at least strong or "above average" academically, even at programs that themselves are not above average. Are they just saying that to discourage bad applicants??
 
A question I'd like to throw out:

What happens to the bottom 30% of US allopathic grads? Honestly, all my NBME performances thus far (Step I 209/86 and shelf exams around -1 SD) put me in this group.

What I would really like is to match an IM program with a good name in a good city. I'm not talking top tier here, but more like the mid-tier/well-respected ones with relatively impressive fellowship matches. If it makes a difference, I go to a mid-tier medical school in a desirable city right now. Currently a 3rd year. I'm hoping to take step II early and do well, but for arguments sake, let's just say I stay in the same general percentile.

Thanks for the help.

From the 2007 209 is near the 25th Percentile (207) for Step 1 for those who matched in internal medicine, so roughly 25 percent of people with a Step 1 less than yourself matched into IM, which I guess is good news.

I think it is hard to divide IM programs into mid-tier and top-tier, which sort of assumes there is a lower-tier (but applicants always just say they are applying to "middle-tier" IM programs and residents of poor programs might describe their program as "middle-tier"). I basically divide residency programs generally into:

CATEGORY 1. Top University Programs, i.e. Hopkins, Mayo, MGH . . . maybe there are about 20 or so of these.

CATEGORY 2. University Programs which I divide into two categories:

2 a. University Programs with solid reputation. These are obviously not the MGH's, but also obviously not poor university programs either; i.e. such as a good IM program such as Baylor. Such programs are non-malignant, and produce happy residents.

2 b. University Programs that fall short in many respects, i.e. malignant atmosphere, problems with applying for fellowships, unhappy residents, but are still a "University Program" and therefore still get a ton of good applicants for better or worse. You get to have graduated from a relatively well known residency program, but you paid a price with a malignant atmosphere or plans for fellowship not working out. These are sort of the Lehman Brothers of the residency world, i.e. they are well known IM powerhouses, but because of perhaps changes in leadership or just losing good faculty have been through tough times. For some, taking a 3 a IM program, i.e. a community affiliated IM program that is more stable and produces good fellowship matches is worth it over many 2 b IM programs.

CATEGORY 3. University affiliated/community programs: Many internal medicine programs are more loosely affiliated with an academic institution than others, and community IM programs offer more obstacles in terms of getting a fellowship and just are not seen as prestigious. I subdivide these into:

3a - IM programs that while being community programs or loosely affiliated do a good job educating their residents and many residents get the fellowships they want. THESE ARE THE REAL GEMS IN THE IM RESIDENCY MATCH, THEY ARE NOT OBVIOUSLY AFFILIATED OR WELL KNOWN BUT ARE GREAT PLACES TO TRAIN!

3b- These are the "Whoops" IM programs, where they may have looked great on paper and during interview, but perhaps have a high percentage of IMGs OR DO's (often indicates a weakened academic environment and poor fellowship placement) OR there are malignant aspects or problems getting fellowships for residents. Graduates of these programs with some frequency say they would liked to have gone elsewhere for residency.

Judging by your NBME scores and Step 1, Category 1 is likely a long shot, i.e. I don't think you will get into Hopkins IM program. I think you may, with an emphasis on may, have a shot at some university programs with a solid reputation. Your sure bet is the group in 3, which don't necessarily fit with "well respected", i.e. most people have never heard of, but could get you your fellowship with a lot of hardwork.

Obviously the top candidates go for category 1 IM programs. People who come up short and some top candidates who couldn't get a spot at category 1 IM programs compete intensely for Category 2 IM programs. I.e. at Baylor's IM program you will have a ton of folks with AOA, Step 1 235+ interviewing with you, and these programs generally aim to get top candidates too, but there are more of them, so if you emphasize other aspects of your application you will have a chance.

HOWEVER, a big problem for you is Step 2. It is very very similar to NBME examinations, which if you are one SD below the mean on these (much worse than you Step 1 showing which isn't as bad as below 200), you run a real risk of failing this examination or doing very poorly which will, I would guess, sink you at many Category 2 institutions who may have granted you an interview if not for a poor Step 2. My advice? Since your Step 1 is "decent" i.e. not disasterous, apply to a ton of Category 2 IM programs and take Step 2 only when you are confident you can blow it away. Don't take it if you figure you will do as well as Step 1, more likely you will do the same as your NBME as Step 2 tests clinical diagnosis and treatment scenarios.

Big question though is how did your IM clerkship go? If you aced this, besides your NBME, and maybe even got honors, then you have a leg up for many Category 2 IM programs in terms of getting your shoe in the door, i.e. an interview.

Category 3 is a grab bag of IM programs, hard to differentiate via just looking at their published information and you should talk to residents during the interview process as these programs are happy with residents who got within 20 points of the average for Step 1.

A nice Category 3 IM program ( 3a ) in a community setting with good placements post residency and friendly faculty ranks way above a similar institution with "academic affiliations", i.e. not a real university hospital but associated with maybe two other medical schools/academic centers, but which has bad fellowship placement and is malignant (3b,. . . the worst). For many Category 3 IM programs half the residents did worse than you on Step 1 and you stand out as some sort of medical genius, no kidding.
 
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Seriously, 50% of applicants are below average, yet when you read all the residency websites they all say their applicants are at least strong or "above average" academically, even at programs that themselves are not above average. Are they just saying that to discourage bad applicants??

PDs by and large don't care if "bad applicants" apply to their program, as they would rather fill with "bad applicants" i.e. with less than stellar academic performance than with nobody at all. . . Rather such programs are targeting the "good applicants" with high board scores and good academics who by and large go to places where there are other "good applicants."

For example, if I opened the Darth Neurology IM program and state in a couple years that we are " on par with Hopkins IM residents in terms of board scores, IM passage rates and fellowship placement to excellent hospitals." Then sure, tons of people would apply who have great stats and might rank me over Hopkins if I give them more cake during the interviewing day.

Obviously, a residency program isn't hurt by having a ton of applicants try to get in, beyond screening out applicants electronically. It actually might make a residency program look good if they could say that 10,000 people applied for 10 spots and they "were only able to interview may 1,000."
 
PDs by and large don't care if "bad applicants" apply to their program, as they would rather fill with "bad applicants" i.e. with less than stellar academic performance than with nobody at all. . . Rather such programs are targeting the "good applicants" with high board scores and good academics who by and large go to places where there are other "good applicants."

For example, if I opened the Darth Neurology IM program and state in a couple years that we are " on par with Hopkins IM residents in terms of board scores, IM passage rates and fellowship placement to excellent hospitals." Then sure, tons of people would apply who have great stats and might rank me over Hopkins if I give them more cake during the interviewing day.

Obviously, a residency program isn't hurt by having a ton of applicants try to get in, beyond screening out applicants electronically. It actually might make a residency program look good if they could say that 10,000 people applied for 10 spots and they "were only able to interview may 1,000."

So they are basically lying to try to get better applicants to apply? That's not very nice for people who are looking for real information about how competitive the program is.
 
So they are basically lying to try to get better applicants to apply? That's not very nice for people who are looking for real information about how competitive the program is.

Well maybe you can be more specific as to what program. I have only seen a couple make boasts about their applicants.

What programs do advertise much more often is how their residents compare in national examinations, i.e. inservice exams. This gives you a composite idea of the quality of applicants admitted, and to a certain degree how good the program is. Let's say that the Hopkins IM residents get on average 95th percentile on the medicine inservice exams the past five years. This says a combination of 1 and 2 were at play:

1. Our residents likely had great fund of knowledge coming in to residency and basically teach themselves excellently. (Anybody can walk into a medical bookstore and buy a board review book for Internal Medicine. It takes an excellent student to read it and master it on their own.)

2. Our residency program at Hopkins has the best instructors in IM in the United States, and we can turn all of our residents into excellent IM physicians which is reflected appropriately by our medicine inservice examinations.

I think residency programs are basically trying to sell how great their progam is. If you want to soar with the eagles then you should sign with us. Of course Hopkins picks the best students so who is to say which weighs more, i.e. nature vs. nuture. . .

I have seen some IM residency programs publish average Step 1s, which I think is a fair way to help applicants decide where to apply. Again, Hopkins IM residency program doesn't care if they get an extra thousand applicants that didn't know that they are, well, ahem, Hopkins, and couldn't figure out they would never get an interview. So, it is helpful for applicants to know the average caliber of people applying to certain programs. But realistically, most applicants know which places are hypercompetitive, which is a small minority.

For the most part, programs like Hopkins with supercompetitive applicants publish their stats for a variety of reasons, the least of which is not that it cements their status as a place of excellence.
 
So they are basically lying to try to get better applicants to apply? That's not very nice for people who are looking for real information about how competitive the program is.

Well maybe you can be more specific as to what program. I have only seen a couple make boasts about their applicants.

What programs do advertise much more often is how their residents compare in national examinations, i.e. inservice exams. This gives you a composite idea of the quality of applicants admitted, and to a certain degree how good the program is. Let's say that the Hopkins IM residents get on average 95th percentile on the medicine inservice exams the past five years. This says a combination of 1 and 2 were at play:

1. Our residents likely had great fund of knowledge coming in to residency and basically teach themselves excellently. (Anybody can walk into a medical bookstore and buy a board review book for Internal Medicine. It takes an excellent student to read it and master it on their own.)

2. Our residency program at Hopkins has the best instructors in IM in the United States, and we can turn all of our residents into excellent IM physicians which is reflected appropriately by our medicine inservice examinations.

I think residency programs are basically trying to sell how great their progam is. If you want to soar with the eagles then you should sign with us. Of course Hopkins picks the best students so who is to say which weighs more, i.e. nature vs. nuture. . .

I have seen some IM residency programs publish average Step 1s, which I think is a fair way to help applicants decide where to apply. Again, Hopkins IM residency program doesn't care if they get an extra thousand applicants that didn't know that they are, well, ahem, Hopkins, and couldn't figure out they would never get an interview. So, it is helpful for applicants to know the average caliber of people applying to certain programs. But realistically, most applicants know which places are hypercompetitive, which is a small minority.

For the most part, programs like Hopkins with supercompetitive applicants publish their stats for a variety of reasons, the least of which is not that it cements their status as a place of excellence.
 
To the OP:
It sounds like you have thrown in the towel already. DON'T do that. For Pete's sake man, you're only 1/4 the way through 3rd year. If you haven't done internal medicine yet, then try like hell to get an honors. Here is what you do - go and talk to the IM residency program director NOW and wax poetic about how you like internal medicine, really want to do it and want to get in to a good university program and ask what you need to do to make yourself a better applicant. Ask him about "research opportunities". In reality, most med student research is BS because you can't do real research in a couple of months, but that doesn't matter - what the program directors are looking for is some interest, someone who is willing to go the extra mile. So I advise trying to block off a couple of months for research toward the beginning to middle of 4th year, and trying to find a mentor for that during 3rd year. Also, I advise you to tell your medicine resident, fellow and attendings that you want to get "honors" at the beginning of your medicine rotation, and ask what you can do to get that. Tell them you plan a career in IM. I used to think this would come across as grade-grubbing, but in actuality the people who did this are the ones who got "honors". You also need to start seriously studying for your shelf exams - find out what books the others are studying (who have done well on the tests).

I don't think you are doomed for USMLE step 2 just because your shelf scores aren't great. I actually did better on the USMLE 2 relative to most of the shelfs...though I did do well on the medicine shelf. What you have to realize about the shelfs is they are graded on the curve, so that missing a few questions can throw you off (i.e. -1 SD). I think you are overestimating the important of board scores in IM also. I do recommend you start studying early for step 2, get Rx for Boards and First Aid for Boards. Also there are some question books better than others -can't remember the names though.

I do think you can match at a university program for IM. IM just isn't that competitive of a field. It's just not. There are a LOT of spots, and if you apply widely, and your letters of rec. are good and you do pretty well in your IM rotation (honors is better, but high pass OK), do some research, OK USMLE, I think you'll match just fine.

Don't put things on autopilot and defeat yourself, though.
 
To the OP:
It sounds like you have thrown in the towel already. DON'T do that. For Pete's sake man, you're only 1/4 the way through 3rd year. If you haven't done internal medicine yet, then try like hell to get an honors. Here is what you do - go and talk to the IM residency program director NOW and wax poetic about how you like internal medicine, really want to do it and want to get in to a good university program and ask what you need to do to make yourself a better applicant. Ask him about "research opportunities". In reality, most med student research is BS because you can't do real research in a couple of months, but that doesn't matter - what the program directors are looking for is some interest, someone who is willing to go the extra mile. So I advise trying to block off a couple of months for research toward the beginning to middle of 4th year, and trying to find a mentor for that during 3rd year. Also, I advise you to tell your medicine resident, fellow and attendings that you want to get "honors" at the beginning of your medicine rotation, and ask what you can do to get that. Tell them you plan a career in IM. I used to think this would come across as grade-grubbing, but in actuality the people who did this are the ones who got "honors". You also need to start seriously studying for your shelf exams - find out what books the others are studying (who have done well on the tests).

I don't think you are doomed for USMLE step 2 just because your shelf scores aren't great. I actually did better on the USMLE 2 relative to most of the shelfs...though I did do well on the medicine shelf. What you have to realize about the shelfs is they are graded on the curve, so that missing a few questions can throw you off (i.e. -1 SD). I think you are overestimating the important of board scores in IM also. I do recommend you start studying early for step 2, get Rx for Boards and First Aid for Boards. Also there are some question books better than others -can't remember the names though.

I do think you can match at a university program for IM. IM just isn't that competitive of a field. It's just not. There are a LOT of spots, and if you apply widely, and your letters of rec. are good and you do pretty well in your IM rotation (honors is better, but high pass OK), do some research, OK USMLE, I think you'll match just fine.

Don't put things on autopilot and defeat yourself, though.

This is really good advice, and if this person is a third year then there is plenty of time to focus on Step 2, do as well as possible on medicine rotation, and maybe do some research. You will get an IM spot, but how hard you work now until residency application time could influence strongly where you go. Don't think you are out of the game.
 
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