Are top 20 schools a crapshoot?

[iluvbeingpremed]

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Hi all!

So as a long time lurker on this page, I know the general advice is to apply broadly and early. And I do totally understand that an acceptance is an acceptance, and that I would be lucky to get in anywhere when I apply next cycle.

With that being said, I do have a particular dream school that I want to attend more than anything, and I was wondering if there is any particular way to increase my chances other than stellar stats and EC's?

It might just be this website, but I feel like applicants like me are a dime a dozen and while I do believe my activities have been meaningful, it seems as though the caliber of applicants continues to rise.

 

[Spinach Dip]

Applying to any school is a crapshoot.

 

[unnumzaan]

It may seem like a crapshoot when analyzing the dataset as a whole, but there are definitely individual factors that lend to success or failure at specific schools.

The best way to evaluate your "fit" at a school is to look at the data from many past applicants similar to yourself (aka go over mdapplicants and sdn with a fine tooth comb) or talk to someone similar to yourself who has been through the process and managed to garner significant insight along the way.

What's the school?

 

[efle]

As a group, all 20? No

 

[iluvbeingpremed]

As a group, all 20? No

Well, what I meant more was that through browsing MDapplicants, I couldn't find a clear distinction between applicants that got accepted to JHU and rejected at UPenn, or vice versa perhaps, and my question is concerning how an applicant who (hypothetically, not regarding myself) had a set dream of attending UPenn would be able to make it happen. It seems as though it somewhat becomes luck when an applicant has all the scores, leadership and research/publications necessary to be considered for a school of that caliber.

Again, I see that this might come across as annoying since an acceptance at any top 20 school would be thrilling, but a girl can dream.

 

[efle]

Well, what I meant more was that through browsing MDapplicants, I couldn't find a clear distinction between applicants that got accepted to JHU and rejected at UPenn, or vice versa perhaps, and my question is concerning how an applicant who (hypothetically, not regarding myself) had a set dream of attending UPenn would be able to make it happen. It seems as though it somewhat becomes luck when an applicant has all the scores, leadership and research/publications necessary to be considered for a school of that caliber.

Again, I see that this might come across as annoying since an acceptance at any top 20 school would be thrilling, but a girl can dream.

I too have a dream of a certain Top 10. But I quash the **** out of that dream as best I can because individual schools in the Top 20 are absolutely a crapshoot !

 

[iluvbeingpremed]

That's what I figured, thanks @efle

 

[justadream]

I too have a dream of a certain Top 10. But I quash the **** out of that dream as best I can because individual schools in the Top 20 are absolutely a crapshoot !

If you don't mind sharing (feel free not to), is it WashU?

 

[Banco]

Not really. Some of the most crapshooty (is that a word?) schools are BU, Georgetown, GWU - ones that get a lot of applications.

 

[efle]

If you don't mind sharing (feel free not to), is it WashU?

Yep

Not really. Some of the most crapshooty (is that a word?) schools are BU, Georgetown, GWU - ones that get a lot of applications.

Without seeing how the accepted/interviewed stands relative to the applicant population you can't really state that low yield = above average crapshooty. It may just be that they get massive volumes of underqualified applicants/are more people's reach or dream school than some of their peers

 

[Banco]

Yep


Without seeing how the accepted/interviewed stands relative to the applicant population you can't really state that low yield = above average crapshooty. It may just be that they get massive volumes of underqualified applicants/are more people's reach or dream school than some of their peers

Valid point, but those conditions could apply to top schools as well. I was just trying to say that top schools aren't necessarily any more "crapshoots" in the traditional sense when compared to other schools. More selective? Definitely.

 

[iluvbeingpremed]

It is a crapshoot to an extent, but there are definitely qualities that certain schools look for. Having applied to many of the top 20 this past cycle, I feel as though I now have some sense of that. Now if only I had this knowledge going into the process...

A valid point is made a few posts above -- schools that receive a ton of applications are highly unpredictable (I'd add Tufts to that list).

Wow I just did a little snooping and see you are headed to Pritzker! Congratulations, and I would love to hear your experience on the entire application cycle.

 

[mw18]

I think it could be considered a crapshoot because any top 20 could and likely will flatout reject you. They may be number 18 and Harvard may interview you. I can't see any rhyme or reason to why some schools show interest and why others don't (I'm sure the adcom members have things in mind). My advice to everyone is not to have a dream school, because they may just not be interested. But I think what @efle is saying is right. Generally, if you're strong enough as an applicant, you will get a few top 20s to bite and give you an interview. What you do then, is about you.

 

[Goro]

It's a crapshoot if your stats are below avg. A well targeted list is better than blind guessing or carpet bombing. You have to accept that in this game, you have roughly a 10-20% chance of success at any given school. The numbers are all in MSAR.

At my school, > 5000 apps for ~500 interview slots, for 100 seats. But toss out the 2500 people who had no business applying at all, then the odds are: 20% to land an interview, and we accept about 50% of whom we interview. I'll bet it's the same at Harvard, but they probably accept 2-3 people for every seat, as does LizzyM's school.

Hi all!

So as a long time lurker on this page, I know the general advice is to apply broadly and early. And I do totally understand that an acceptance is an acceptance, and that I would be lucky to get in anywhere when I apply next cycle.

With that being said, I do have a particular dream school that I want to attend more than anything, and I was wondering if there is any particular way to increase my chances other than stellar stats and EC's?

It might just be this website, but I feel like applicants like me are a dime a dozen and while I do believe my activities have been meaningful, it seems as though the caliber of applicants continues to rise.

 

[bobmccorweg]

It's a crapshoot if your stats are below avg. A well targeted list is better than blind guessing or carpet bombing. You have to accept that in this game, you have roughly a 10-20% chance of success at any given school. The numbers are all in MSAR.

At my school, > 5000 apps for ~500 interview slots, for 100 seats. But toss out the 2500 people who had no business applying at all, then the odds are: 20% to land an interview, and we accept about 50% of whom we interview. I'll bet it's the same at Harvard, but they probably accept 2-3 people for every seat, as does LizzyM's school.

What exactly do you mean by "no business applying" <3.0 +<25 mcat? Or below 10th percentile at a given school?

 

[Goro]

Far below that. As an example, the wise gyngyn, who is at a very good school, has reported having to read apps from people with single digit MCAT scores. Not individual subscores, the entire exam! See the "delusional" thread in this forum.

What exactly do you mean by "no business applying" <3.0 +<25 mcat? Or below 10th percentile at a given school?

 

[Willy38]

Yes.

 

[ChrisMack390]

About 40 percent of applicants get accepted. If as many of them are completely delusional as the adcoms say, that means if you know what are you doing you have a pretty excellent chance of getting in somewhere. I like.