Best answer to "What Are My Chances?"

[Irish Football]

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Straight from a medical school's website;

"Q. What are my chances of getting accepted? A. Applying to medical school is not like playing the lottery; chance does not play a role. We read all the information you send us—the verified AMCAS application, your secondary application, and letters of evaluation—and analyze your motivation for a career in medicine, and evaluate your personal and intellectual readiness and fit for study of medicine at [our school]."

This is my favorite answer to the "What Are My Chances" question. With that in mind, I certainly understand the logic and motivation of asking such a question, I have asked it plenty myself. Just an interesting thought to keep in mind though.

 

[circulus vitios]

I agree, it's not like playing the lottery. The lottery is subjective: you either have the winning numbers or you don't. Medical school admissions is subjective and changes from school to school. Your best estimate is AAMC data: https://www.aamc.org/download/157450/data/table24-mcatgpagridall2008-10.pdf.pdf

 

[punkedoutriffs]

Straight from a medical school's website;

"Q. What are my chances of getting accepted? A. Applying to medical school is not like playing the lottery; chance does not play a role. We read all the information you send us—the verified AMCAS application, your secondary application, and letters of evaluation—and analyze your motivation for a career in medicine, and evaluate your personal and intellectual readiness and fit for study of medicine at [our school]."

This is my favorite answer to the "What Are My Chances" question. With that in mind, I certainly understand the logic and motivation of asking such a question, I have asked it plenty myself. Just an interesting thought to keep in mind though.

I think the chance part comes in in that everybody's "analysis" is subjective and dependent upon things not necessarily under the applicant's control.

 

[SamyLSF]

The best answer to "What Are My Chances?" should be the following lines.

If you are connected to the School of Medicine in any way: 👍
If you are white, or asian: 👎
If you are black, or hispanic: 👍
If you apply early: 👍
If you apply everywhere: 👍
If you use SDN too much: 👎

 

[punkedoutriffs]

The best answer to "What Are My Chances?" should be the following lines.

If you are connected to the School of Medicine in any way: 👍
If you are white, or asian: 👎
If you are black, or hispanic: 👍
If you apply early: 👍
If you apply everywhere: 👍
If you use SDN too much: 👎

What's too much?

 

[SamyLSF]

What's too much?

Those who are on SDN 6-8 hours a day but don't post. Or those who post 6-8 a minute? Or those who are on SDN instead of finishing secondaries?

F**K, I'm not getting into medical school.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

Those who are on SDN 6-8 hours a day but don't post. Or those who post 6-8 a minute? Or those who are on SDN instead of finishing secondaries?

F**K, I'm not getting into medical school.

****.

 

[LizzyM]

"What are My chances" is just lay language for "what is the likelihood?" We wouldn't tell a cancer patient who asks, "What are my chances, Doc?" that this is not a lottery and that we use scientific priciples to diagnose and treat the illness using the latest medical technology. We know that the patient wants to know something about prognosis, what are the chances he'll be around to see his grandkid graduate from college in 2 years?

We know that the likelihood of being interviewed rises with rising MCAT and gpa and we know that the likelihood of being admitted rises with MCAT and gpa but contains other factors as well. We know what proportion of the total applicant pool gets an interview and what proportion of the interviewed applicants gets an offer or gets an offer from the waitlist for the total number of offers issued. We can make a prognostication. Saying otherwise is just dancing around the issue.

Dean Van Horne: Rejection. That's what makes a college great. The exclusivity of any university is judged primarily by the amount of students it rejects. (Accepted, 2006) 😉

 

[Narmerguy]

"What are My chances" is just lay language for "what is the likelihood?" We wouldn't tell a cancer patient who asks, "What are my chances, Doc?" that this is not a lottery and that we use scientific priciples to diagnose and treat the illness using the latest medical technology. We know that the patient wants to know something about prognosis, what are the chances he'll be around to see his grandkid graduate from college in 2 years?

We know that the likelihood of being interviewed rises with rising MCAT and gpa and we know that the likelihood of being admitted rises with MCAT and gpa but contains other factors as well. We know what proportion of the total applicant pool gets an interview and what proportion of the interviewed applicants gets an offer or gets an offer from the waitlist for the total number of offers issued. We can make a prognostication. Saying otherwise is just dancing around the issue.

Dean Van Horne: Rejection. That's what makes a college great. The exclusivity of any university is judged primarily by the amount of students it rejects. (Accepted, 2006) 😉

Couldn't have said it better myself. This is an argument in semantics, and as an applicant I'd be irritated by it. Clearly it is not a lottery, but obvious preferences for certain qualities (race, GPA, MCAT, research, etc) exist among schools and they are held unequally among applicants. It's not hard to get at what an applicant means when they ask what their chances are.

 

[LizzyM]

Couldn't have said it better myself. This is an argument in semantics, and as an applicant I'd be irritated by it. Clearly it is not a lottery, but obvious preferences for certain qualities (race, GPA, MCAT, research, etc) exist among schools and they are held unequally among applicants. It's not hard to get at what an applicant means when they ask what their chances are.

No one wants to say, "your chances are slim and none." It goes back to the fictional Dean Van Horne; schools want as many applications as possible so that they can appear very selective. Telling people that their chances are not good is counterproductive to that goal.

 

[Irish Football]

I think the school is just saying that those things that people tend to use to determine their "chances" (i.e. MCAT and GPA) are not a good predictor of their likelihood of being accepted because they use a holistic approach in evaluating every component of an applicant's file. I agree with the fact that the whole argument is about semantics. Nature runs based on probability and "chances" (not trying to get into a religious debate here), from entropy to molecular collisions and interactions. The same is true for the medical school admissions process. I do understand though what the school is trying to say, as well as why an applicant might get annoyed with it.

 

[Irish Football]

No one wants to say, "your chances are slim and none." It goes back to the fictional Dean Van Horne; schools want as many applications as possible so that they can appear very selective. Telling people that their chances are not good is counterproductive to that goal.

That is also an interesting point.

 

[Omppu27]

Straight from a medical school's website;

"Q. What are my chances of getting accepted? A. Applying to medical school is not like playing the lottery; chance does not play a role. We read all the information you send us—the verified AMCAS application, your secondary application, and letters of evaluation—and analyze your motivation for a career in medicine, and evaluate your personal and intellectual readiness and fit for study of medicine at [our school]."

This is my favorite answer to the "What Are My Chances" question. With that in mind, I certainly understand the logic and motivation of asking such a question, I have asked it plenty myself. Just an interesting thought to keep in mind though.

So i see you're interested in Pritzker... 😛

 

[Irish Football]

So i see you're interested in Pritzker... 😛

Ssshhh.....😉