Brexit

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I thought they would.

You cannot find a Briton in an entry level job in England. They don't want the immigrants to keep coming.
 
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Gold is benefiting from Brexit.
 
Jesus I'm exhausted. Been planning for this for two weeks. Last Thursday bought calls on SPY, EWU, DB, and EUFN. Right when the options market closed yesterday I closed out all of them and bought puts on all of them plus oil with 25% of the profits. It looked ugly there right after the close, but the bets were stacked so heavily bullish, it was a good tactical gamble. There wasn't much upside to Bremain. You can see what the downside was to Brexit.

Only played S&P emini's overnight because it was too volatile to pay attention to multiple trades. Shorted until about 1 min before the circuit breakers kicked in then went long when trading started back up. Went to bed at 4:30 Eastern time. Stops on all the puts activated at market open. Closed futures at 2050 and I need a nap.

Epic night.
 
periopdoc said:
Jesus I'm exhausted. Been planning for this for two weeks. Last Thursday bought calls on SPY, EWU, DB, and EUFN. Right when the options market closed yesterday I closed out all of them and bought puts on all of them plus oil with 25% of the profits. It looked ugly there right after the close, but the bets were stacked so heavily bullish, it was a good tactical gamble. There wasn't much upside to Bremain. You can see what the downside was to Brexit.

Only played S&P emini's overnight because it was too volatile to pay attention to multiple trades. Shorted until about 1 min before the circuit breakers kicked in then went long when trading started back up. Went to bed at 4:30 Eastern time. Stops on all the puts activated at market open. Closed futures at 2050 and I need a nap.

Epic night.
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How much did you make/lose?
 
I was up 600% on EWU when I sold yesterday. EUFN, DB, SPY were around 300%. Put stop outs this morning were around 200-400%. I have no idea what % I made on eminis it happened too fast.

I would guess that when added all together I cleared something in the range of 1,000% on the basis.
 
periopdoc said:
I was up 600% on EWU when I sold yesterday. EUFN, DB, SPY were around 300%. Put stop outs this morning were around 200-400%. I have no idea what % I made on eminis it happened too fast.

I would guess that when added all together I cleared something in the range of 1,000% on the basis.
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Why do you still work? Or do you?
 
Brexit doesn't happen every week, and the ducks don't always line up.

In this case, I made a small bet (about 5% of my trading portfolio) that the market was going to bet on Bremain going into this week. Had I guessed wrong, I would be down a little bit. I had stops set so my max loss was 1% of my portfolio, and I likely would not have re-entered the trade. If I had entered 1 day early, I would have stopped out and missed the whole thing.

I guessed right in this case. When I hit 150% gain, I took half off the table to protect the principle. I let the rest ride until last night when I figured I had made enough to be pretty happy no matter what. I cashed out and I took 25% of the gains to gamble on a Brexit. Not because I thought it would happen, but because the market had already priced in Bremain so there was little upside left. My 25% could have gone to zero and I still would have had a nice gain on the trade. As it turns out, Brexit happened and everybody was on the wrong side of the trade.

Soros dumped his pound holdings around 17:30 EDT last night, and my small bet exploded.

It would have been dumb to risk 5% of my portfolio on Brexit yesterday if I wasn't gambling with house money from the previous week. As it was, 25% of my gains were more than the original position so I was able to safely bet more than 5% of my portfolio on Brexit. When all is said and done, the total gain is about couple of months salary.

Sure, I could retire if I had put my whole trading account in last Thursday, but I would have been destroyed if I guessed wrong.

All my retirement accounts have been 100% cash since we hit 2100 on June 7th. I have done a few short-term trades, but missed much of the run up since the 15th.

Smart small bets pay well, but you can't take big positions or you will get destroyed. A lot of people got destroyed last night.
 
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The most annoying thing about where I work is that, due to our time zone, the OR's start at the same time as market open so I either have to be positioned with stops before market open or miss out. I can usually position in the afternoon, but I don't like holding unprotected positions overnight and hedging is expensive given the small size of my portfolio.
 
g2swfsvn0b5x.jpg
 
One thing that is really confusing about all of this to an outsider is why Germany (Merkel) feels any obligation to stay despite its demonstrated ability to be an independent economy that could easily rival any in the top 10. Economically partitioned, Europe could be breathtakingly more potent than the EU with Germany and England along with the current non EU members alone. Why the death grip on this abyss of bureaucracy?

Its the "we're smarter, stupid" syndrome...reductionist? you bet. Correct? Yep.
 
drmwvr said:
One thing that is really confusing about all of this to an outsider is why Germany (Merkel) feels any obligation to stay despite its demonstrated ability to be an independent economy that could easily rival any in the top 10. Economically partitioned, Europe could be breathtakingly more potent than the EU with Germany and England along with the current non EU members alone. Why the death grip on this abyss of bureaucracy?

Its the "we're smarter, stupid" syndrome...reductionist? you bet. Correct? Yep.
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For the same reason they turned a blind eye to the fiscal imprudence of Greece for so long. Germany sells a ton of stuff to the rest of Europe. They have a significant trade surplus which is at risk if the EU falls apart.
 
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drmwvr said:
One thing that is really confusing about all of this to an outsider is why Germany (Merkel) feels any obligation to stay despite its demonstrated ability to be an independent economy that could easily rival any in the top 10. Economically partitioned, Europe could be breathtakingly more potent than the EU with Germany and England along with the current non EU members alone. Why the death grip on this abyss of bureaucracy?

Its the "we're smarter, stupid" syndrome...reductionist? you bet. Correct? Yep.
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They love selling their crap to the Eastern markets, paid by EU grants. Kill the EU, and nobody will subsidize buying from Western Europe, when others are cheaper.
 
dr doze said:
For the same reason they turned a blind eye to the fiscal imprudence of Greece for so long. Germany sells a ton of stuff to the rest of Europe. They have a significant trade surplus which is at risk if the EU falls apart.
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Hardly.... Europe will still be buying with or without the EU...Germany sells a ton of stuff all over the world, tariffs, trade agreements (and lack thereof) and all. For Merkel et al, this is all about ideology.
 
FFP said:
They love selling their crap to the Eastern markets, paid by EU grants. Kill the EU, and nobody will subsidize buying from Western Europe, when others are cheaper.
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We are talking about Germany, correct? Not to be Pollyanna-ish but they don't seem to have any trouble selling their crap to the rest of the world and if the East is truly a repository for their "crap", the rest of the world will more than make up for their quality production.
 
drmwvr said:
We are talking about Germany, correct? Not to be Pollyanna-ish but they don't seem to have any trouble selling their crap to the rest of the world and if the East is truly a repository for their "crap", the rest of the world will more than make up for their quality production.
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I wouldn't swear by their quality anymore. German cars are anything but reliable, for example, and the parts cost a ton.

And they don't send the quality stuff. They send the stuff others wouldn't buy, or not at that price. I know that EU money used to come earmarked for certain projects, and those projects implied buying from certain Western EU-approved companies. So the EU is good business for the political clientele. 😉
 
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periopdoc said:
Jesus I'm exhausted. Been planning for this for two weeks. Last Thursday bought calls on SPY, EWU, DB, and EUFN. Right when the options market closed yesterday I closed out all of them and bought puts on all of them plus oil with 25% of the profits. It looked ugly there right after the close, but the bets were stacked so heavily bullish, it was a good tactical gamble. There wasn't much upside to Bremain. You can see what the downside was to Brexit.

Only played S&P emini's overnight because it was too volatile to pay attention to multiple trades. Shorted until about 1 min before the circuit breakers kicked in then went long when trading started back up. Went to bed at 4:30 Eastern time. Stops on all the puts activated at market open. Closed futures at 2050 and I need a nap.

Epic night.
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That is fk'ing epic. Caught the run up and closed out SPY calls near the end of session Thursday. Didn't have the balls to go short, and already had taken cash out of my futures account for moving expenses. 🙁
 
periopdoc said:
Ok so who is else is net short through the weekend? Monday looks to be another epic day.
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Short...Nope. Waiting for a rebalancing band. Getting close in international. Looking for tax loss harvesting opportunities. Thinking about harvesting gains in my muni bond funds and shortening durations because I just can't believe where rates are and can't believe that we will follow much of the world and get negative nominal rates. Sticking to my plan, but not happily.

Trip to London this summer anyone? A lot cheaper than it has been.


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Trading aside, the Europeans are awakening to ludicrous policies which are ruining their countries. The Brits have spoken and now the domino effect will commence. And, yes, unrealistic immigration policies are ruining Europe. Can they sit idle and watch their culture, language, and institutions be compromised by foreign influences? Not for long, and they are finally awakening to the realities of their past liberal policies.

My only hope is that this can be managed without violence, but it's gone so far that that becomes less likely by the day which is a very tragic potential reality......
 
GA8314 said:
Trading aside, the Europeans are awakening to ludicrous policies which are ruining their countries. The Brits have spoken and now the domino effect will commence. And, yes, unrealistic immigration policies are ruining Europe. Can they sit idle and watch their culture, language, and institutions be compromised by foreign influences? Not for long, and they are finally awakening to the realities of their past liberal policies.

My only hope is that this can be managed without violence, but it's gone so far that that becomes less likely by the day which is a very tragic potential reality......
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I think the catastrophe of destruction of cultural treasures that has happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran should be a wake-up call to those who prize cultural heritage in Europe.

If the current trajectory does not change, you could possibly see the destruction of Notre Dame in Paris in 200 years because it is an affront to the Muslim majority in France.
 
chfo said:
I think the catastrophe of destruction of cultural treasures that has happened in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran should be a wake-up call to those who prize cultural heritage in Europe.

If the current trajectory does not change, you could possibly see the destruction of Notre Dame in Paris in 200 years because it is an affront to the Muslim majority in France.
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That could happen in less than 50 years at the current trajectory. But, Europe is awakening from it's neutered slumber.
 
I don't know what much of this means. Any tips on places to read up to try to understand this level of knowledge regarding trading. I don't have much to add but I would watch NVRO stock. If it gets dragged down, buy it. It just works better and it is a one device company that is gaining marketshare rapidly.
 
BobBarker said:
I don't know what much of this means. Any tips on places to read up to try to understand this level of knowledge regarding trading. I don't have much to add but I would watch NVRO stock. If it gets dragged down, buy it. It just works better and it is a one device company that is gaining marketshare rapidly.
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My feeling is that a lot of people think they are good traders. Very few are. I think it's a lot easier to lose a lot of money than to make a little by attempting to trade.

My personal philosophy will be to sit on the sidelines, at most, during uncertain times (because dollar cost averaging is effective also), but also attempting to build wealth via a very high savings rate, into balanced index funds (very few even).

Hats off to those that can make money trading though. I think it's possible but you must be very very dialed in and play specific events or asset classes (since you can't be dialed into them all and extreme focus is essential IMO).
 
Well said. My wife says I have two full-time jobs. My goal is to eventually go half time with both. Quant trading combined with a good understanding of economics, is the way to go, but you have to keep up with the game. Events like Brexit are pretty easy if you come up with a plan and stick to it. The daily grind is harder.

The problem with balanced funds (where most of my money is) is one of timing. Several years of retirement can be wiped out in short order if a bear market hits at the wrong time. It can take years to recover.
 
periopdoc said:
Well said. My wife says I have two full-time jobs. My goal is to eventually go half time with both. Quant trading combined with a good understanding of economics, is the way to go, but you have to keep up with the game. Events like Brexit are pretty easy if you come up with a plan and stick to it. The daily grind is harder.

The problem with balanced funds (where most of my money is) is one of timing. Several years of retirement can be wiped out in short order if a bear market hits at the wrong time. It can take years to recover.
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Yeah, that's why I think rebalancing according to risk tolerance is important. Also, I fully PLAN on missing out on some upside in order to not lose money as I near retirement. I'll sit some things out from time to time, and continue a high savings rate, getting "returns" from my constant savings.......

I'm not going to be one of those dudes that loses 50% of their value 2 years out from retirement. That's not necessary.

I'm "budgeting" for 4-6% returns over the next 25 years.
 
GA8314 said:
My feeling is that a lot of people think they are good traders. Very few are. I think it's a lot easier to lose a lot of money than to make a little by attempting to trade.

My personal philosophy will be to sit on the sidelines, at most, during uncertain times (because dollar cost averaging is effective also), but also attempting to build wealth via a very high savings rate, into balanced index funds (very few even).

Hats off to those that can make money trading though. I think it's possible but you must be very very dialed in and play specific events or asset classes (since you can't be dialed into them all and extreme focus is essential IMO).
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One of my former partners fancied himself a day trader. He once lost 90 grand with one click of the mouse and almost got divorced. He never did it again after that.
 
drmwvr said:
Hardly.... Europe will still be buying with or without the EU...Germany sells a ton of stuff all over the world, tariffs, trade agreements (and lack thereof) and all. For Merkel et al, this is all about ideology.
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yes, they will be buying but a lot less. The pound got a lot cheaper against other currencies. Thus making imported goods more expensive, but giving a shot in the arm to British businesses. 20% of all german cars produced are sold in the UK.
 
It's official—Brexit's 'Black Friday' selloff was the worst ever at $2 trillion

2 trillion in loses in one fell swoop. Largest losses ever. Will the trend continue on Monday?


Day traders always lose. Still, I don't get it. How does one lose $90,000 on one bet unless trading with a portfolio value of close to two million? It just isn't necessary. Use options to leverage your gains while minimizing risk and stops to protect yourself.

-bsd
 
dr doze said:
yes, they will be buying but a lot less. The pound got a lot cheaper against other currencies. Thus making imported goods more expensive, but giving a shot in the arm to British businesses. 20% of all german cars produced are sold in the UK.
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Scotch Whisky at a discount! Sign me up!
 
It protects your gains when you can't be watching, or when the market is too volatile to efficiently get orders submitted.

Say I buy 200 shares of FCX at $10.61 for an initial outlay of $2,122. I might set a $1 trailer stop. If the stock tanks immediately, the stop will activate when the price hits $9.61 for a loss of $200 plus commissions.

However, a trailer stop ratchets up as the stock price goes up. If the stock went to $11.61 then tanked, the trailer would activate at $10.61 and I would only lose commissions.

If the stock went to $12.61 then tanked, the stop would activate at $11.61 for a profit of $200 minus commissions.

I usually set my stops fairly loose initially, then tighten them up as I get closer to a sell point. Sometimes I will put in a stop loss of, say, $200 below my initial purchase price then convert it to a trailer when I get some upward movement.
 
periopdoc said:
It protects your gains when you can't be watching, or when the market is too volatile to efficiently get orders submitted.

Say I buy 200 shares of FCX at $10.61 for an initial outlay of $2,122. I might set a $1 trailer stop. If the stock tanks immediately, the stop will activate when the price hits $9.61 for a loss of $200 plus commissions.

However, a trailer stop ratchets up as the stock price goes up. If the stock went to $11.61 then tanked, the trailer would activate at $10.61 and I would only lose commissions.

If the stock went to $12.61 then tanked, the stop would activate at $11.61 for a profit of $200 minus commissions.

I usually set my stops fairly loose initially, then tighten them up as I get closer to a sell point. Sometimes I will put in a stop loss of, say, $200 below my initial purchase price then convert it to a trailer when I get some upward movement.
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Any thoughts on this opinion?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-i-stopped-using-stop-loss-orders-2013-05-09
 
He doesn't like stops because they may activate too slowly on flash crashes leading to a lower than programmed sell price, but he thinks he will be faster getting an alert, logging onto his brokerage account, and entering the sell order? Poppycock.

Even if that were the case, consider the frequency of flash crashes vs the frequency of a stock spiking and then dropping. The latter happens every day. The former? I wouldn't even hazard how infrequently that happens. Stops can be programmed to handle >90% of typical market volatility. So your stops cost you a little bit now and then, more frequently they save you a ton.

He also confuses the cause and effect of quant traders and market makers in regard to stops. We don't "run stops." We watch for capitulation and buy at the bottom when selling reaches a frenzied peak. Capitulation by stock holders runs the stops. Quant traders and market makers jump in afterwards to take advantage of the situation
 
periopdoc said:
He doesn't like stops because they may activate too slowly on flash crashes leading to a lower than programmed sell price, but he thinks he will be faster getting an alert, logging onto his brokerage account, and entering the sell order? Poppycock.

Even if that were the case, consider the frequency of flash crashes vs the frequency of a stock spiking and then dropping. The latter happens every day. The former? I wouldn't even hazard how infrequently that happens. Stops can be programmed to handle >90% of typical market volatility. So your stops cost you a little bit now and then, more frequently they save you a ton.

He also confuses the cause and effect of quant traders and market makers in regard to stops. We don't "run stops." We watch for capitulation and buy at the bottom when selling reaches a frenzied peak. Capitulation by stock holders runs the stops. Quant traders and market makers jump in afterwards to take advantage of the situation
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I wish I were the trader you are. It sounds like fun, but I never managed to turn it into profits. It was usually good for a nice $3000 deduction at the end of the year though. I just index now with an occasional blue chip thrown in. I bought more index funds the last two days, and I'm hoping we see another 10% down over the next month to get more money invested.
 
For every successful trader like Periop there are at least 100 others who will lose money in the market. This is fact and has been demonstrated in many studies. That said, there are individuals with great talent out there who know how to use Options, Short selling, Stops, Pair-trades, etc to make serious money.

If you want to "dabble" in the market limit the amount of money to no more than 5% of your portfolio. For many that 5% will be lost in less than a year or less especially if they have no experience with trading, options, etc.
 
I make a few grand a month using covered calls on stocks that I own. I've made quite a bit on AAPL and FB. And some on SPY. But I'm long on all these stocks. Most of my positions are in SPY and DIA.


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Wiscoblue said:
I make a few grand a month using covered calls on stocks that I own. I've made quite a bit on AAPL and FB. And some on SPY. But I'm long on all these stocks. Most of my positions are in SPY and DIA.


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I've always planned to do that once I own enough shares to make selling calls worthwhile. How much have you lost by missing out on gains? I'd imagine that long term you make more selling calls than you miss out on. What time horizon do you use?
 
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