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I think that the projections of a shortage assume that a pathologist signs out 2500-3000 cases per year.
Up here in Canada, after a bunch of pathologists killed people, one of the big questions was "what is the maximum workload for pathologists before they become unsafe?". An interesting question, but one never posed to any other specialist physician (even surgeons who routinely work 40 hour straight shifts).
http://www.bumc.bu.edu/busm-pathology/chairmans-blog/
Does anybody here agree with him? A looming shortage of pathologist? Not until he retires.
I'm not sure that taking a personal shot at a pathology chairman is such a great idea. Pathology is a small world. Just be sure you are completely anonymous, or Dr. Remick could wreck your future. Think it is tough finding a job now? Try being on the bad side of an influential pathology chairman.
But as I have written before, this is all a moot point as the political trend is to movie towards primary care and away from specialists to reduce the cost of medicine. If new residency spots are to be created, they will go to peds, fp, IM, gyn etc....
So what are you predicting, exactly? Do you think an increase in clinical residencies positions will improve the situation in pathology?
Poor PathResident2 got scared and took his/her link down. 🙁
Here is my favorite quote in the December 2012 Future Shortage of Pathologist section
"The difference between the demand (an additional 5400 pathologists) and the supply (1000 pathologists) means that there will be a national shortage of 4400 pathologists by the year 2020. This extensive report details the methodology used to make these projections."
We better keep all those old sellouts in the field to meet that demand.....
One scenario where our leadership in pathology could be correct about a shortage of pathologists is if we abandon the current reimbursement system.
Currently you are incentivized to work harder because if you do more you make more. Which seems appropriate for pathology because it is not like we are sending patients for procedures and making money off it. We don't effect the volume of care a patient gets, but if we are willing to do a bigger volume of cases (i.e. sign out 5,000 cases instead of 3,000 a year) then we get paid 5000 times x instead of 3000 times x.
If we get deincentivized to work hard and do more, then we will do what is necessary. If the regulators say, a pathologist is worth 300,000 to sign out 3000 cases a year and we salaried as such, then we will sign out 3000 cases a year and not say "oh year sure I'll do that extra 2000 for nothing". Just like DMV workers don't come in and work overtime for nothing.
If pathologists are deincentivized to work hard, then there could be a shortage.
ummm....well who is going to pay that? What you are suggesting isn't abandoning the current reimbursement system but rather just massively increasing it and converting pathologists to salaried positions. The employers for these salaried positions are going to pay a salary that is related to what the pathologist is bringing in, and the only way an employer could pay a salaried pathologist that sort of money is if the reimbursement for specimens went up dramatically.
You could easily apply the same logic to any field.....I'd like for someone to pay me 275k a year to see 10 med mgt patients a day. Maybe they should change the reimbursement in my field to allow that to happen.
One scenario where our leadership in pathology could be correct about a shortage of pathologists is if we abandon the current reimbursement system.
Currently you are incentivized to work harder because if you do more you make more. Which seems appropriate for pathology because it is not like we are sending patients for procedures and making money off it. We don't effect the volume of care a patient gets, but if we are willing to do a bigger volume of cases (i.e. sign out 5,000 cases instead of 3,000 a year) then we get paid 5000 times x instead of 3000 times x.
If we get deincentivized to work hard and do more, then we will do what is necessary. If the regulators say, a pathologist is worth 300,000 to sign out 3000 cases a year and we salaried as such, then we will sign out 3000 cases a year and not say "oh year sure I'll do that extra 2000 for nothing". Just like DMV workers don't come in and work overtime for nothing.
If pathologists are deincentivized to work hard, then there could be a shortage.
It's really not that bizarre. Instead of being paid on a volume metric you could be paid on a quality metric. Then your 15 minute med checks might be expanded to include some therapy and social work type stuff and collaboration with families and support systems - that may lead to better outcomes.
I thought the ACA was gonna change reimbursement from rewarding Quantity to Quality.
http://www.kaiserhealthnews.org/Stories/2012/April/15/medicare-doctor-pay.aspx
.... change reimbursement from rewarding Quantity to Quality.
This seems like it might reduce ancillary testing to save costs - and put an end to that 12 separate container business going on in urology, but I don't see how surgical pathology can be held to a quality standard. Maybe it would relate to writing better reports and providing more specific guidance to clinicians? Accurate diagnosis is already assumed, so I'm not sure what else can be done...
Clinical pathology seems better from a quality perspective. Clinical pathologists can simply refuse tests that aren't necessary, or perhaps implement informatics and reflex testing and things like that to improve care.