I really think specialty rates by schools and accepted applicant stats vary by program and class. I personally know of 12 in the '03 UOP class (I'm sure there were more that I'm not aware of) that matched right out of school (4 ortho, 3 pedo, 3 os, 1 endo, 1 pros) and that they were all in the top 20%, not 2%. And remember, many at the top of the class choose not to specialize. Basically though, do your best and hopefully it's enough to match somewhere if you're looking to specialize.
Agree w/aceking, 85% of a class matching means they're heading to AEGD/GPR. Personally, I would ask why. Are there that many grads seeking to do hospital dentistry/sedation/etc. or are many grads from that program feeling they're not yet prepared for private practice?