Correlation of MCAT subsection scores to USMLE Step 1 Performance?

[premedalt]

I found a link/PDF that provides information regarding how the new MCAT scores correlate to Step 1 performance:

https://www.aamc.org/download/493340/data/lsl2018validity.pdf

I was wondering if there is any more specific data available showing how the subsection scores on the new MCAT correlate to Step 1. Anyone know where I can find such information, or know when such information will become available?

Thank you in advance!

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[965978]

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[965978]

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[aspiringMD47]

I found a link/PDF that provides information regarding how the new MCAT scores correlate to Step 1 performance:

https://www.aamc.org/download/493340/data/lsl2018validity.pdf

I was wondering if there is any more specific data available showing how the subsection scores on the new MCAT correlate to Step 1. Anyone know where I can find such information, or know when such information will become available?

Thank you in advance!

I was also wondering about this! Specifically how the bio/biochem section correlates to Step 1 scores

 

[Lucca]

Do a google scholar search and a few things will show up, remember reading about this some time ago. Iirc the most meaningful correlation is the bio subsection and it’s significant but medium strength (~0.3 or something like that). Might be misremembering

 

[premedalt]

Do a google scholar search and a few things will show up, remember reading about this some time ago. Iirc the most meaningful correlation is the bio subsection and it’s significant but medium strength (~0.3 or something like that). Might be misremembering

Thanks. I think I read what you are referring to a while ago as well, I believe it was regarding the pre-2015 MCAT. I was wondering if there's anything similar available for the newer MCAT subsection scores.

 

[LukaDoncicLuk]

There were 25 people who matriculated to a medical school with a MCAT score of 472-489.

Am I missing something?

 

[meronebib]

Before I get hate messages let me be clear that I was being sarcastic^

EDIT: However I wanna share a story about my friend who will be applying next cycle. He's a really nice guy but he's 4'11. Not because of a medical condition but just because that's just what his height is.

Do you think his height has severely affected his emotional and psychological health and his ability to concentrate and succeed? Absolutely.

But he can't talk about it or express the psychological damage that it has done to him during an interview (or write about it in a secondary). Because he risks getting scoffed at.

Wait, sorry, but how does this relate to Step 1 and MCAT correlation?

 

[premedalt]

There were 25 people who matriculated to a medical school with a MCAT score of 472-489.

Am I missing something?

Maybe dad bought the school a new anatomy lab?

 

[965978]

Wait, sorry, but how does this relate to Step 1 and MCAT correlation?

It doesn’t. But OP’s link talks a lot about disadvantaged students.

I deleted my posts.

 

[Lucca]

Thanks. I think I read what you are referring to a while ago as well, I believe it was regarding the pre-2015 MCAT. I was wondering if there's anything similar available for the newer MCAT subsection scores.

Not to my knowledge. It will probably not change very much tbqh.

 

[Walter Raleigh]

Maybe dad bought the school a new anatomy lab?

Maybe they were servicemembers taking the exam overseas under difficult conditions?

 

[premedalt]

Maybe they were servicemembers taking the exam overseas under difficult conditions?

In those circumstances I could see schools ignoring a score within the 472-489 as long as they retook it later and did better. But if they applied with only a score in that range I would be seriously surprised if schools looked past that and offered an acceptance. Maybe it happened, props to them if so.

 

[deleted958249]

Would love to see the data that combines MCAT and GPA to predict USMLE score - nonetheless, thanks for the post! Interesting read.

 

[Walter Raleigh]

In those circumstances I could see schools ignoring a score within the 472-489 as long as they retook it later and did better. But if they applied with only a score in that range I would be seriously surprised if schools looked past that and offered an acceptance. Maybe it happened, props to them if so.

@Goro knows of a case where this happened; if I recall correctly he interviewed this individual himself and he was accepted. Servicemember who took the exam overseas and got a 14 on the old exam. I think it was his only score.

 

[Goro]

@Goro knows of a case where this happened; if I recall correctly he interviewed this individual himself and he was accepted. Servicemember who took the exam overseas and got a 14 on the old exam. I think it was his only score.

No, that was @gonnif

 

[aldol16]

In those circumstances I could see schools ignoring a score within the 472-489 as long as they retook it later and did better. But if they applied with only a score in that range I would be seriously surprised if schools looked past that and offered an acceptance. Maybe it happened, props to them if so.

Prepare to be surprised because 25 people did it (however they did it).

 

[787593]

There were 25 people who matriculated to a medical school with a MCAT score of 472-489.

Am I missing something?

WHAT. THE. ****.

 

[Med Ed]

There were 25 people who matriculated to a medical school with a MCAT score of 472-489.

Am I missing something?

Not really. According to AAMC data the last two cycles have seen 45 people matriculate with sub-490 MCAT scores. The odds aren't very good. Those in the 486-489 range had a 1.0% chance of getting in, those <486 a 0.4% chance.

 

[Angus Avagadro]

Maybe dad bought the school a new anatomy lab?

When things aren't as they seem, follow the money. That usually explains the situation. Most problems dissolve when you rub enough money on them.

 

[M&L]

this is definitely interesting. i can see how the results might deviate a bit, for example in my case. But i think the overall pattern makes sense.

 

[LukaDoncicLuk]

Not really. According to AAMC data the last two cycles have seen 45 people matriculate with sub-490 MCAT scores. The odds aren't very good. Those in the 486-489 range had a 1.0% chance of getting in, those <486 a 0.4% chance.

Why would a school take a chance on even one applicant who has a high probability of failing step one based on their MCAT?

 

[premedalt]

Why would a school take a chance on even one applicant who has a high probability of failing step one based on their MCAT?

Good que$tion. I'm not $ure.

 

[dr_kateb]

Why would a school take a chance on even one applicant who has a high probability of failing step one based on their MCAT?

Assuming the “donated anatomy lab” premise is true, the lab resources that were donated is much greater than the resources needed to train a one med student. So it’s simply a money gained > money lost scenario.

If cash wasn’t thrown the adcoms were on something.

 

[Walter Raleigh]

No, that was @gonnif

Ah, got y'all confused. The guy got in, though - and his father didn't build the medical school a new library or anatomy lab.

 

[Med Ed]

Why would a school take a chance on even one applicant who has a high probability of failing step one based on their MCAT?

Every applicant poses a risk. In terms of raw numbers, most of our Step failures arise in students who did not come in with concerning metrics.

And bear in mind these 45 individuals made up 0.112% of that matriculant pool. I am willing to bet that practically all of them went to heavily mission-oriented schools. The building donation strategy is only feasible if the applicant is borderline to begin with.

 

[Walter Raleigh]

How would an applicant with a 489 MCAT be "borderline"? That's usually straight-up lethal for MD schools.

 

[premedalt]

Every applicant poses a risk. In terms of raw numbers, most of our Step failures arise in students who did not come in with concerning metrics.

And bear in mind these 45 individuals made up 0.112% of that matriculant pool. I am willing to bet that practically all of them went to heavily mission-oriented schools. The building donation strategy is only feasible if the applicant is borderline to begin with.

I agree, every applicant poses a risk. And it makes sense that the majority of students who fail Step 1 did not come in with concerning metrics. That's because there are so few who manage to get in with concerning metrics in the first place. It's more likely they fail due to life circumstances or whatever.

But, based on the pic below, there is strong reason to believe that those who do come in with concerning metrics are at a greater risk of failing than those who don't. I'm guessing that schools will want to factor that in when deciding if it's worth accepting an applicant with such a low MCAT.

Honestly, I could see it being more likely that schools would look past a such a low MCAT given a large enough donation rather than an applicant simply being an amazing fit for the schools mission. But that's pure speculation on my part.

 

[LukaDoncicLuk]

Does the data include the averages from the schools from Puerto Rico? IIRC their MCAT medians are sub 500 and some of their 10th percentiles are in the low 490s (493 etc)

 

[premedalt]

Does the data include the averages from the schools from Puerto Rico? IIRC their MCAT medians are sub 500 and some of their 10th percentiles are in the low 490s (493 etc)

For the study done in the link I posted, not that I am aware of. Here are the schools involved in the study: (pic below)

There are some schools here that do have MCATs on the lower side tho.

 

[Med Ed]

ut, based on the pic below, there is strong reason to believe that those who do come in with concerning metrics are at a greater risk of failing than those who don't. I'm guessing that schools will want to factor that in when deciding if it's worth accepting an applicant with such a low MCAT.

Yes, that's pretty much how it works.

Honestly, I could see it being more likely that schools would look past a such a low MCAT given a large enough donation rather than an applicant simply being an amazing fit for the schools mission. But that's pure speculation on my part.

Admissions used to be a lot murkier than it is nowadays. There was little scrutiny of admissions processes, and a couple of phone calls could strong arm a VIP applicant into medical school. People still try to exert pressure, but it's gotten a lot harder to pull these sorts of stunts.

For one, the LCME has tightened its oversight of admissions. A lot of discretion that admissions deans once presumed has been peeled off in favor of committee decisions. Record keeping is more extensive now, and a lot of it is electronic. One could still circumvent the system, but it would be difficult to do it without a trace.

The landmark event for exposing corruption in medical school admissions was the 2008 University of Florida scandal, which saw the dean fired for going around the committee and accepting an applicant who had not taken the MCAT. No current dean wants to wake up and find him or herself in the papers for similar reasons, so they tend to be careful with such matters. While not perpetrated by schools (as far as we know), the current undergraduate admissions scandal shows the public appetite for learning about such misdeeds.

With that in mind, I maintain that a huge donation is unlikely to carry someone with a sub-490 MCAT into a school that does not already have an established history of taking high risk applicants. But it could grease the door for an applicant who is already at least minimally acceptable on his/her own merits. And if you have enough money to buy a building, then you probably have enough money to hire the right tutors.

 

[premedalt]

"Yes, that's pretty much how it works.

Yeah I just meant to clarify that the point made about most step 1 failures not being due to initial bad metrics doesn't really discredit the fact having bad metrics is more likely to lead to failing Step 1.

"For one, the LCME has tightened its oversight of admissions. A lot of discretion that admissions deans once presumed has been peeled off in favor of committee decisions. Record keeping is more extensive now, and a lot of it is electronic. One could still circumvent the system, but it would be difficult to do it without a trace.

Very fair point here. I'm guessing COCA has done the same with DO schools. Side question, has the tightening of admissions had any effect on the Legacy System?

"The landmark event for exposing corruption in medical school admissions was the 2008 University of Florida scandal, which saw the dean fired for going around the committee and accepting an applicant who had not taken the MCAT. No current dean wants to wake up and find him or herself in the papers for similar reasons, so they tend to be careful with such matters. While not perpetrated by schools (as far as we know), the current undergraduate admissions scandal shows the public appetite for learning about such misdeeds.

"With that in mind, I maintain that a huge donation is unlikely to carry someone with a sub-490 MCAT into a school that does not already have an established history of taking high risk applicants. But it could grease the door for an applicant who is already at least minimally acceptable on his/her own merits. And if you have enough money to buy a building, then you probably have enough money to hire the right tutors.

You bring up many good points. I agree with you that a huge donation by itself is unlikely to get someone accepted, but that it probably could help someone with the minimum qualifications. True, about being able to hire the right tutors, but I'm guessing there are at least some students out there who aren't willing to put in any actual effort of their own. And for those students, even the "right" tutors can't help much.



(Edited to (attempt to) format quotes correctly)

 

[Med Ed]

Yeah I just meant to clarify that the point made about most step 1 failures not being due to initial bad metrics doesn't really discredit the fact having bad metrics is more likely to lead to failing Step 1.

No, and it was not my intention to discredit that notion, which is essentially the centra dogma of admissions. The earlier questions was "Why would a school take a chance on even one applicant who has a high probability of failing step one based on their MCAT?" The answer is that mission-driven schools are oriented around obtaining some positive outcomes rather than avoiding all negative outcomes.

Very fair point here. I'm guessing COCA has done the same with DO schools.

Based on some things @Goro has said over the years, I would not be so sure.

Side question, has the tightening of admissions had any effect on the Legacy System?

Legacy admits were always an undergraduate thing, established to maintain a foothold for WASPs in the Ivy Leagues. Medical schools do admit a high proportion of applicants who have at least one physician parent, but that relates more to the fact that those applicants come up through good schools and have a lot of help learning how to play the game.

 

[premedalt]

"No, and it was not my intention to discredit that notion, which is essentially the centra dogma of admissions. The earlier questions was "Why would a school take a chance on even one applicant who has a high probability of failing step one based on their MCAT?" The answer is that mission-driven schools are oriented around obtaining some positive outcomes rather than avoiding all negative outcomes..

I apologise then, I misunderstood what you meant to say earlier. Thank you for clarifying.

"Legacy admits were always an undergraduate thing, established to maintain a foothold for WASPs in the Ivy Leagues. Medical schools do admit a high proportion of applicants who have at least one physician parent, but that relates more to the fact that those applicants come up through good schools and have a lot of help learning how to play the game.

That does make sense, thanks for explaining.

 

[Goro]

Very fair point here. I'm guessing COCA has done the same with DO schools. Side question, has the tightening of admissions had any effect on the Legacy System?

Unfortunately, in the DO world, the Dean is the ultimate decider. I have seen legacy admits to our school, and they have been among our worst students. Fortunately, it's been awhile since we've done anything like this. But our Dean has over-ruled the Adcom on a number of occasions each cycle. We try to lessen the chances of this happening by being unanimous and quite vocal on why we reject particular candidates.

No, and it was not my intention to discredit that notion, which is essentially the centra dogma of admissions. The earlier questions was "Why would a school take a chance on even one applicant who has a high probability of failing step one based on their MCAT?" The answer is that mission-driven schools are oriented around obtaining some positive outcomes rather than avoiding all negative outcomes.

I remember you gave one telling example of that if a school admits, say, ten high risk candidates, knowing that the washout rate will be 20% for these kids, that still means that 8 of them will become doctors. A ruthless calculus, but one that meets the school's mission.

 

[TheIllusionist]

what I find interesting is that the 524-528 MCAT (99th percentile) middle of the CI corresponded to a mid 240s STEP 1 (80th percentile). It is definitely more of a hardwork exam than MCAT. Looks like lazy people even at the top are punished and score below caliber, if they don't put in effort, exactly what I expected.

 

[dr_kateb]

what I find interesting is that the 524-528 MCAT (99th percentile) middle of the CI corresponded to a mid 240s STEP 1 (80th percentile). It is definitely more of a hardwork exam than MCAT. Looks like lazy people even at the top are punished and score below caliber, if they don't put in effort, exactly what I expected.

I mean the MCAT has a ton of useless bloat, namely the entire CARS section and sociology half of psych/soc. Not surprised it doesn’t correlate well.

 

[TheIllusionist]

I mean the MCAT has a ton of useless bloat, namely the entire CARS section and sociology half of psych/soc. Not surprised it doesn’t correlate well.

CARS probably still the most gloaded. But the new MCAT feels less so than the old one, especially since the more intuitive physics was removed