declining pre-match

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Has anyone been offered a pre-match spot (if you're eligible) that you had to decline?

I'm just curious about the best way to do this. Do you tell them the truth about whey they're not #1 (eg location)? You don't want to screw up your chances in the match, especially if they're the #2...

I kind of wish this pre-match thing didn't exist, its just awkward!

 

[LanceArmstrong]

I was offered a number of prematches this year, but they were all from programs at the bottom of my list. I declined by both phone and email in a very polite way. Meaning I said several positive things about them and how I regret having to decline their offer. If my #2 or even #3 or #4 program gave me a prematch I would go there. Because statistically the chance of matching into your #1 program is just not that great...

 

[bob swerski]

I had to decline a pre-match offer too. I'll need to send a follow-up email to politely do so, since I don't want to completely scratch them off my list.
Incidentally, the consensus my friends and I came up with is that you obivously take it if #1 or 2 offers you a spot, think about how good a shot you have at 1 or 2 first before saying yes to #3 and think of a good way to decline anyone else.

 

[Doc Oc]

My #4 offered prematch and I declined. I would have done so with my #2 as well. I'd rather go all-in 🙂

Besides, I'm applying to family, so even if I go unmatched I'll get to be a family doc. If I were applying to rads or something, I'd be singing a different tune for sure.

 

[LanceArmstrong]

Let's say your chance of matching into either one of your time 5 choices is 15% to each program.
Meaning chance of matching to #1 = 15%
#1 or #2 = (1-0.15)^2 = 28%
#1, #2 or #3 = 39%
#1 - #4 = 48%
#1 - #5 = 56%

So the chances of matching into your top 5 isn't 15% x 5, but actually less.

If we use 20% chance of matching then its looks a little better:

#1 = 20%
#1 or #2 - 36%
#1-#3 - 49%
#1-#4 - 59%
#1-#5 - 67%

Then you ask yourself what is the independent probability that I will match at program X. Assuming they haven't offered you a spot and there are not agreements between you or your school and the program or the pd, then this is what you consider
1) How many people do they interview per spot?
-lets say the answer is 10 - then everyone has an equally 10% chance of matching there
2) How many of those students wont rank this program highly or rank it at all and probably wont end up there
-lets say 2/10 - so then our odds edge up to 12.5%
3) Out of those 8 people per spot left how many are "worse candidates" than me in other words where am I on the ladder (based on school name, lors, grades, usmle's, and likeability)?
-I am not sure how to factor this into the equation numerically but you can estimate whether you are competetive to your field and whether the interview likely moved you up or down...

Any way good luck

 

[tr]

Let's say your chance of matching into either one of your time 5 choices is 15% to each program.
Meaning chance of matching to #1 = 15%
#1 or #2 = (1-0.15)^2 = 28%
#1, #2 or #3 = 39%

I think you are underestimating the chance of matching in your top three.

According to the AAMC, in 2004
"As in previous years, more than 80 percent of all matched applicants obtained one of their top three residency program choices. Matched U.S. medical school seniors enjoyed a very high success rate, as more than 85 percent of them were paired with one of their top three program choices. Similarly, more than 83 percent of all other groups of matched applicants were paired with one of their top three choices."

http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/reporter/may04/matchday.htm

And I would guess that a lot of the applicants who went very deep into their ROLs were matched in competitive fields where prematch offers would be unlikely in the first place. That means, for a field in which you're competitive enough to be offered a prematch spot, you'd probably have a >90% chance of matching in your top 3 anyway.

Given this, I don't see the logic in accepting a prematch from anything less than your #3 program, as overall there's a high probability of matching in the top 3 anyway.

 

[tr]

1) How many people do they interview per spot?
-lets say the answer is 10 - then everyone has an equally 10% chance of matching there

Okay, but imagine you have 10 programs, each of which has ten spots, and you also have 100 applicants, each of whom interview at all ten programs.

Every program has interviewed 10 applicants per spot. Sounds competitive, right? - but 100% of applicants will be matched, and even if they all submit the exact same ROL, 30% of them will get one of their top three. This is the worst-case scenario, in which everyone wants to go to the same program so you really only have a 10% chance of matching there if you interview.

Presumably they won't all submit the same ROL though; so suppose of the three most popular programs, each is ranked #1 by 30% of the applicants. Then 30% of the total (ten students from each of the groups of 30) will get their first choice.

Overall, the more 'equal' the programs are in their appeal to applicants, the more likely you are to get your first choice.

 

[LanceArmstrong]

I think you are underestimating the chance of matching in your top three.

According to the AAMC, in 2004
"As in previous years, more than 80 percent of all matched applicants obtained one of their top three residency program choices. Matched U.S. medical school seniors enjoyed a very high success rate, as more than 85 percent of them were paired with one of their top three program choices. Similarly, more than 83 percent of all other groups of matched applicants were paired with one of their top three choices."

http://www.aamc.org/newsroom/reporter/may04/matchday.htm

And I would guess that a lot of the applicants who went very deep into their ROLs were matched in competitive fields where prematch offers would be unlikely in the first place. That means, for a field in which you're competitive enough to be offered a prematch spot, you'd probably have a >90% chance of matching in your top 3 anyway.

Given this, I don't see the logic in accepting a prematch from anything less than your #3 program, as overall there's a high probability of matching in the top 3 anyway.

I used the stats for IMG's in the match. About 50-55% match in EM and those on avg have about 4-5 interviews.