51% is still majority. Still doesn't mean a 51% match rate is good (Carib match rate is obviously higher than 51%, but still far worse than US MD/DO).
Actually it is demonstrably less than that, at about 46% of those who start medical school, match into ANY residency as my analysis of SGU, perhaps the "best" of the Carib schools, will show. Please note these numbers come from the SGU website.
SGU reports that analyzes that 93% place (not match) in residency
1) Enrollment and Residency:
Enrollment, MCAT & GPA Statistics | SGU Medical School
SGU SOM reports just under 6300 total enrollment in an MD program. This would mean roughly that 1600 students a year are MS1-MS4 or approximately 800 students a term. (whether students are in a dual degree and/or take more than 4 years to graduate, on average, this number will remain about the same). Of these 75% are US citizens and 17% are US PR, so 87% total US. Additionally 11% of total enrollment are Canadian, though many . It is reasonable to say then that about 90% of entering Students (about 1450) would likely seek medical residency in USA. SGU Reports that 961 have “US Residencies in 2019.“ So what has happened to these 500 others?
2) Attrition:
https://www.aamc.org/system/files/r...tesandattritionratesofu.s.medicalstudents.pdf
From 1993-1994 through 2012-2013, more medical students left medical school for nonacademic than for academic reasons,... The total national attrition rate remained relatively stable at an average of 3.3% over those 20 years.
So US MD schools have a 3.3% attrition rate, meaning 96.7% ultimately earn their degree. For SGU, they report “6.1% attrition rate for the class entering in August of 2017.” Assuming, that this up to date, it would mean of our 1450 Anticipated US Residency bound students, 90 dropped out after the first 2 years, leaving at least 1360 to continue. Also with the way that SGU reports this, we cant tell if any took leaves, needed another year, dropped out later, etc. We can only speculate that fewer additional percent dropped out in years 3-4. For purposes of comparison, lets assume a conservative total attrition of 10% for any entering class. With a weaker overall class (MCAT average of 497, cGPA of 3.3, sGPA of 3.1), and living overseas, 10% would be very conservative. So about 1225 would be left in our US-bound residency cohort
3) Medical Residency:
Graduate Success | St. George's University
SGU proudly states that 961 graduates got
placed(not matched) in residencies. Now placement means via NRMP, post-match SOAP, any pre-match positions, openings that occur during the cycle Looking at their data further, 935 were placed in US, with others in Canada, UK, and a few other countries. So of the estimated 1225 graduates who sought US residencies, 935 got a slot, or about 76%. SGU also reports that on average 29% get slots via non-match methods. That would mean 664 graduates
matched. So of the estimate 1450 US-residency bound students who start SGU, only 664 or
46% matched into a residency slot. That increases to about 65% who get ANY residency slot.
In sum, assuming 10% class attrition, the “success rate” of SGU is at best is 65%