There really is only one thing that will determine if you get a residency in Cali, and that is you. If you do well during the 1st two years and get good board scores, and are not adverse to work your 3rd and 4th years you will get a residency where you want it.
So go to the place you think you will be happiest. Cuz if you are happy you are more likely to achieve the above.
Hope that helps.