I think the general reply from most people will be that they can't tell you much without the MCAT score. A lot of people feel like they can do extremely well on the MCAT and underestimate it. Take some practice tests until you start getting into the score range where you feel an acceptance is probable.
That GPA will be a huge red flag at many schools, and many will toss out the application instantly if it is under a 3.0. However, some schools will take a look at your application if you do get that high MCAT and will notice the upward trend you speak of.
Make sure you study for that MCAT as dilegently as possible, and get that 33-34 that yout think you can get. Try taking some courses to increase that GPA over a 3.0 and I think some schools will look at you, and possibly extend an interview.
Also, if you don't mind, I would consider D.O schools. Retake some of those classes that you did poor in (C's or less) and ace them. Your science GPA will rise faster as the old grades get replaced with new grades (for MD schools they average both).
What are your EC's like? You will need to have a very nice set of extra curricular activites that you did in your undergraduate years in order to get some ADCOM's to give a little more attention to your application.
Coming out of a carribean school will be make it very tough on you to obtain a surgical residency. But it is not impossible, especially if you study well and perform well on your USMLE step 1 and 2. If you do get a good score on your USMLE, then surgical residency is definitely possible coming out of the carribean. You should check out the match list in the carribean forums for the big 4 schools. Just know that MD's and DO's from a US school will have the upper hand if they are at or near your USMLE score.
