Don't wanna sound like a day-trader, but med school apps have plateaued!!!

[metalgearHMN]

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Maybe this trend means there will be less applicants for the 2010-11 cycle, which would be great! It's odd how constant the number of matriculants stays, compared to the heavily fluctuating applicants. The app cycle must have been MURDER in 1995-98, even though I thought we were headed for similar levels until the 2009-10 cycle had about the same number of kids as 2008-09. Wish I could've applied in 2002 though, or 1989 😛

You think the recent health care debates have deterred students from applying? If so, keep it going Congress!

 

[LuciusVorenus]

What I find kind of scary about that graph is that the number of accepted students has remained basically the same for more than two decades.

Also, I wonder what caused that huge spike, then the return to normal levels before the spike, all during the span of Clinton's presidency...

 

[Morsetlis]

Is a day-trader like a daywalker?

 

[lorenzomicron]

It's odd how constant the number of matriculants stays, compared to the heavily fluctuating applicants.

This may not be my place to say, but I wonder if medical schools are doing their jobs correctly in making sure the nation has enough doctors? The population has grown about 36%; it would make sense if the doctors, who are a vital service that probably should have numbers proportional to population, should have grown similarly. This is probably one of the big reasons for the nation's shortage of doctors right now.

 

[nisarg2010]

This may not be my place to say, but I wonder if medical schools are doing their jobs correctly in making sure the nation has enough doctors? The population has grown about 36%; it would make sense if the doctors, who are a vital service that probably should have numbers proportional to population, should have grown similarly. This is probably one of the big reasons for the nation's shortage of doctors right now.

You are right, I dont think medical schools are doing their jobs properly.

 

[Morsetlis]

You are right, I dont think medical schools are doing their jobs properly.

New ones are opening. Slowly.

 

[BuckFMP]

New ones are opening. Slowly.

Growth in med school seats is outpacing residency seats, which are the rate limiting step. Med schools can pump out all the new grads they want, but it won't budge the number of new docs.

As I understand it, funding for residencies come out of the Medicare budget. In '94 (or right around there), this part of the budget was frozen for cost control purposes. This effectively shut down growth in residency positions. The current stalled healthcare bill has provisions in it to address this, but who knows how any of that is going to turn out. For deficit hawks, it may be unacceptable. The problem though, is not the med schools.

 

[Morsetlis]

You're talking about growth in med school not actual # of graduates. Of course any kind of growth will outpace a growth of 0.

 

[DocHomer]

What I find kind of scary about that graph is that the number of accepted students has remained basically the same for more than two decades.

Also, I wonder what caused that huge spike, then the return to normal levels before the spike, all during the span of Clinton's presidency...

I think the state of the economy during each period explains it. A recession in 1990 led to a big rise in applications, and it also helped get Clinton elected. Then the dot-com bubble began and that led to a pretty steep decline.

 

[tartrate]

Plateau yes, but you can also say it hasn't been this high in ~10 years.

 

[BlueElmo]

I think the state of the economy during each period explains it. A recession in 1990 led to a big rise in applications, and it also helped get Clinton elected. Then the dot-com bubble began and that led to a pretty steep decline.

Which probably may mean record number of applicants in the near future because of the recession now. Man, I'm glad I applied this cycle.

 

[Raryn]

Which probably may mean record number of applicants in the near future because of the recession now. Man, I'm glad I applied this cycle.

Exactly. Note that the graph doesn't perfectly line up with the economic cycle because there's a ~2 year delay for applying to med school. (Pre-reqs, volunteering/shadowing/research, year long app cycle) Its going to get bad in a year or two.

Also, from what I hear from a few friends, this last application cycle for law school absolutely sucked ass (0 time delay, all you need is a bachelors degree and an LSAT score, easy as hell application process compared to ours). Lead to quite a few more applicants.

 

[kia ora]

this graph is worthless without a citation

 

[flip26]

Which probably may mean record number of applicants in the near future because of the recession now. Man, I'm glad I applied this cycle.

Correct.

Thus the OP is a little early calling a market top.

This current cycle, and next cycle, will likely support the thesis of more apps in a recession and post-recession environment.

 

[Narmerguy]

Yeah I imagine the application numbers are going to balloon but the effect will be dampened by the current healthcare debacle.

 

[morning]

Med school matriculation has risen by about 300 a year. Wish I had the graph I was looking at, but it stayed stable at about 15500 a year for over a decade, until the early 00s, and now is at 18500. Not to start a DO vs. MD debate but a chunk of that is from DO schools.

I think getting into allopathic residencies as a DO or FMG/IMG is going to be extremely challenging in a few years. I would be more worried about my prospects if I wasn't primary interested in IM, OBGYN and peds.

Which probably may mean record number of applicants in the near future because of the recession now. Man, I'm glad I applied this cycle.

I'm not too scared about med school apps getting worse. I'm glad I'm not looking towards becoming a PA. Just getting the right stuff together for a med school app is a challenge, let alone completing 4 years of school and 3+ years of residency. I think a lot of people are going to flock to (already swamped) PA and NP programs. You can see some of it already...all the nursing schools in my area have waiting lists of over a year.

 

[omgu8myric3]

Yeah I imagine the application numbers are going to balloon but the effect will be dampened by the current healthcare debacle.

I agree with this sentiment. Unlike past recessions, medicine together with others (law and business), are going DOWN this recession 🙁

 

[cliffhuxtableDO]

I'm not too scared about med school apps getting worse. I'm glad I'm not looking towards becoming a PA. Just getting the right stuff together for a med school app is a challenge, let alone completing 4 years of school and 3+ years of residency. I think a lot of people are going to flock to (already swamped) PA and NP programs. You can see some of it already...all the nursing schools in my area have waiting lists of over a year.

I agree. I think a lot more people are interested in quick entry to the medical field and are not as likely to take on the time commitment and the debt load to becoming a physician, especially with the uncertainty that Obama has brought to the table in terms of salaries.