Expected Physician Job Growth dropped from 13% to 7% in updated Bureau of Labor Statistics

[ace_inhibitor111]

Uhh.... wtf. That’s a huge drop. Updated less than a week ago. The BLS tend to be pretty generous in their predictions too. Meanwhile the AAMC is still talking about muh physician shortage. Someone’s got to put a stop to this medical school hyperexpansion BS. I’d rather not get into med school at all than train 7 years and not have a job or compete for crap ones.

Home : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Occupational Outlook Handbook is the government's premier source of career guidance featuring hundreds of occupations—such as carpenters, teachers, and veterinarians. Revised annually, the latest version contains employment projections for the 2021-31 decade.

www.bls.gov

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[VA Hopeful Dr]

Uhh.... wtf. That’s a huge drop. Updated less than a week ago. The BLS tend to be pretty generous in their predictions too. Meanwhile the AAMC is still talking about muh physician shortage. Someone’s got to put a stop to this medical school hyperexpansion BS. I’d rather not get into med school at all than train 7 years and not have a job or compete for crap ones.

Home : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

The Occupational Outlook Handbook is the government's premier source of career guidance featuring hundreds of occupations—such as carpenters, teachers, and veterinarians. Revised annually, the latest version contains employment projections for the 2021-31 decade.

www.bls.gov

Then feel free to not go to med school.

For everyone who's not being ridiculous, minus a handful of specialties the job market is still excellent. this is especially true given the massive wave of baby boomers that are retiring.

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

Then feel free to not go to med school.

For everyone who's not being ridiculous, minus a handful of specialties the job market is still excellent. this is especially true given the massive wave of baby boomers that are retiring.

Too late, I’m already 2.5 years and 10,000+ hours in. Only thing in the green is psychiatry

 

[thumbz]

Ehhh our supply is limited by number of residencies - the med school expansion is going to squeeze out more FMGs and low performing DO's and MD's. We won't see a law or pharmacy situation in medicine unless something drastically changes with how we do residency education.

 

[jdh71]

Looming Doctor Shortage Demands Innovative Solutions

Rather than throwing more money at the problem, the growing doctor shortage calls for fresh thinking.

www.cato.org

America's aging population is leading to a doctor shortage crisis

As America's population ages and demand outpaces supply, a physician shortage will intensify.

www.google.com

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

Ehhh our supply is limited by number of residencies - the med school expansion is going to squeeze out more FMGs and low performing DO's and MD's. We won't see a law or pharmacy situation in medicine unless something drastically changes with how we do residency education.

Problem is the growth in the number of residencies have paralleled the growth in students, partly supported by CMGs and other sources who would prefer an oversupply of physicians

Looming Doctor Shortage Demands Innovative Solutions

Rather than throwing more money at the problem, the growing doctor shortage calls for fresh thinking.

www.cato.org

America's aging population is leading to a doctor shortage crisis

As America's population ages and demand outpaces supply, a physician shortage will intensify.

www.google.com

Notice that ALL these articles are quoting the exact same source, the AAMC, the American Association of Medical Colleges, whose entire livelihood is based on expanding schools and increasing the number of students

 

[jdh71]

Problem is the growth in the number of residencies have paralleled the growth in students, partly supported by CMGs and other sources who would prefer an oversupply of physicians



Notice that ALL these articles are quoting the exact same source, the AAMC, the American Association of Medical Colleges, whose entire livelihood is based on expanding schools and increasing the number of students

How tight is your foil hat today?

Let’s simply not imply those evil tricksters at AAMC are only saying this cynically to ostensibly make more monies?? Is that the argument?? But rather if you think their conclusions are incorrect please tell me which of those are incorrect and why.

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

How tight is your foil hat today?

Let’s simply not imply those evil tricksters at AAMC are only saying this cynically to ostensibly make more monies?? Is that the argument?? But rather if you think their conclusions are incorrect please tell me which of those are incorrect and why.

How about a direct contradiction from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Check out the breakdown too. Many specialties are predicted to have 2% or less growth.

I want to see other sources that have the same conclusion as the AAMC. Even if the AAMC were a completely unbiased resource, their statisticians (lol, who’s doing the math btw?) could still be straight up wrong.

 

[Dr. Doctor MD]

Also don't forget the massive expansion of residencies already occuring, combined with the unprecedented number of midlevels graduating per year. This is not good :/

 

[jdh71]

How about a direct contradiction from the Bureau of Labor Statistics? Check out the breakdown too. Many specialties are predicted to have 2% or less growth.

I want to see other sources that have the same conclusion as the AAMC. Even if the AAMC were a completely unbiased resource, their statisticians (lol, who’s doing the math btw?) could still be straight up wrong.

Where is the contradiction? Point it out to me.

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

Where is the contradiction? Point it out to me.

Look at this propoganda-looking poster the AAMC made lol. Let’s see, the government expects job growth to increase by 55k. Meanwhile 35k+ physicians are being added to the work force every year. An expected 200k physicians will retire in the next 10 years (# of doctors age 60-69, since the average age of retirement is 68, and those working at 70+ aren’t counted since the same amount of doctors would keep working). That leaves us with 15k surplus every year assuming residency spots stay the same, and nearly 100k surplus at the end of 10 years.

Apparently the AAMC wants to add 15,000 new residency spots in the next 5 years wtf. This would single-handedly crash the market. We need to stop drinking the koolaid and oppose this ridiculous change.

 

[jdh71]

Look at this propoganda-looking poster the AAMC made lol. Let’s see, the government expects job growth to increase by 55k. Meanwhile 35k+ physicians are being added to the work force every year. An expected 200k physicians will retire in the next 10 years (# of doctors age 60-69, since the average age of retirement is 68, and those working at 70+ aren’t counted since the same amount of doctors would keep working). That leaves us with 15k surplus every year assuming residency spots stay the same, and nearly 100k surplus at the end of 10 years.

Apparently the AAMC wants to add 15,000 new residency spots in the next 5 years wtf. This would single-handedly crash the market. We need to stop drinking the koolaid and oppose this ridiculous change.

The expected job growth is not the same thing as expected need. You are up in this thread conflating.

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

The expected job growth is not the same thing as expected need. You are up in this thread conflating.

Okay, educate me then. How is the AAMC accurately calculating expected need, and do you really think we should start increasing the number of residencies by 50%?

 

[7331poas]

The expected job growth is not the same thing as expected need. You are up in this thread conflating.

Yes, but the expected job growth is the only thing that matters to a prospective physician

 

[JoaoMoutinho]

Looming Doctor Shortage Demands Innovative Solutions

Rather than throwing more money at the problem, the growing doctor shortage calls for fresh thinking.

www.cato.org

America's aging population is leading to a doctor shortage crisis

As America's population ages and demand outpaces supply, a physician shortage will intensify.

www.google.com

This is a bit unrelated, but seeing them quite Dr. Atul Grover kept throwing me for a loop because I expected it to be Atul Gawande.

 

[Dro133]

I'm confused, what's the problem here?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but pretty much all physicians who finish residency find work, right? So in a field where everyone gets a job and the number of jobs is expected to increase by 7% (this is accounting for tech and midlevels according to the BLS page)...again, what's the problem here?

Also, the BLS page says 7% is "faster than average" when compared to most jobs...so in a world where physicians somehow wouldn't be able to find a job, then most other professions are probably screwed as well.

 

[BorderlineQueen]

At least it's not 0 percent as it is for pharmacy.

 

[ace_inhibitor111]

I'm confused, what's the problem here?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but pretty much all physicians who finish residency find work, right? So in a field where everyone gets a job and the number of jobs is expected to increase by 7% (this is accounting for tech and midlevels according to the BLS page)...again, what's the problem here?

Also, the BLS page says 7% is "faster than average" when compared to most jobs...so in a world where physicians somehow wouldn't be able to find a job, then most other professions are probably screwed as well.

The problem is that just last year, the government predicted a 13% increase in the number of physician jobs in the next decade. In 2017 it was 15%, then 2018 it was 13%, now 2019 it's 7%. It's becoming abundantly clear that the whole "physician shortage" thing is based on bunk data. Still, the AAMC wants to increase residency spots by 50%.

And no, not all physicians get jobs. Many specialties aren't able to work in the location they want to. Many pathologists and radiological oncologists have a hard time getting jobs. Other specialties need to get fellowships for a job (like ortho, 95% have fellowships, and peds hospitalist may soon need a fellowship).

Also, does the job market for the average person look good to you right now lol. Average is 5% growth, so 7% growth is actually pretty bad. Computer science is something like 30% growth, and healthcare in general is 13% growth.

 

[jdh71]

Okay, educate me then. How is the AAMC accurately calculating expected need, and do you really think we should start increasing the number of residencies by 50%?

I don’t have any kind of conspiracy theory reason to doubt the calculated expected need. Why should I not believe the expected need numbers?

I can talk anecdotes right now and can easily tell you we do not have the manpower to see all the patients that need to be seen in a timely manner.

Maybe increasing by 50% is too much? If it is make the case why. But we clearly need more physicians especially in light of the boomers both retiring and needing more physician services.

 

[jdh71]

Yes, but the expected job growth is the only thing that matters to a prospective physician

Expected job growth based on what though? Current systems in place. Supply and demand eventually drive the actually need. If there is a need for more physicians there will be more jobs.

 

[Dro133]

The problem is that just last year, the government predicted a 13% increase in the number of physician jobs in the next decade. In 2017 it was 15%, then 2018 it was 13%, now 2019 it's 7%. It's becoming abundantly clear that the whole "physician shortage" thing is based on bunk data. Still, the AAMC wants to increase residency spots by 50%.

And no, not all physicians get jobs. Many specialties aren't able to work in the location they want to. Many pathologists and radiological oncologists have a hard time getting jobs. Other specialties need to get fellowships for a job (like ortho, 95% have fellowships, and peds hospitalist may soon need a fellowship).

Also, does the job market for the average person look good to you right now lol. Average is 5% growth, so 7% growth is actually pretty bad. Computer science is something like 30% growth, and healthcare in general is 13% growth.

I agree that the numbers seem concerning -- 55k jobs added vs. 150k additional doctors doesn't make much sense.

That being said, I think this expectation that we should be able to find a job anywhere in the country on a whim is a little silly, and is not the case for many professions. I think FM and psych are unique in the sense that you can literally choose where you want to live. Also, I looked up the IT field and it said 12% growth.

But yeah, I'm having a hard time reconciling the 15k new slots, so I agree with you on that.

 

[Rekt]

Ehhh our supply is limited by number of residencies - the med school expansion is going to squeeze out more FMGs and low performing DO's and MD's. We won't see a law or pharmacy situation in medicine unless something drastically changes with how we do residency education.

Just an FYI, residency approval has nothing to do with supply and demand. ACGME does not care one iota about if the graduates have jobs. They only inspect a program to meet standards. It's then up to the individual specialities to determine demand. Dermatologist is only competitive because they artificially limit the amount of residencies, but on the other hand, the current state of residency expansion in emergency medicine is abysmal. They're replicating far beyond actual demand and the hit on the job market is being felt already.

 

[Dr. Doctor MD]

Just an FYI, residency approval has nothing to do with supply and demand. ACGME does not care one iota about if the graduates have jobs. They only inspect a program to meet standards. It's then up to the individual specialities to determine demand. Dermatologist is only competitive because they artificially limit the amount of residencies, but on the other hand, the current state of residency expansion in emergency medicine is abysmal. They're replicating far beyond actual demand and the hit on the job market is being felt already.

Actually the dermatology limitation is a myth. They've expanded at essentially the same rate as Rad Onc over the last decade. Most programs are increasing in class sizes and new community programs are opening left and right.

 

[Chibucks15]

Man this website is the best. It’s doomsday every single day and nobody ever realizes that none of the scenarios ever come close to becoming true

 

[nimbus]

The same BLS site says median physician income is $208k. Is that including housestaff?

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Man this website is the best. It’s doomsday every single day and nobody ever realizes that none of the scenarios ever come close to becoming true

No kidding. Just for poops and giggles I went looking to see what was available in the area. Here's what I found in the SC state capital:

Careers - Prisma Health

Notice of Nondiscrimination

phuscmg.org

Apply Now - Physician Recruitment | Lexington Medical Center, Columbia, SC

We're always looking for board-certified or board-eligible physicians to join our expanding network. Must be a U.S. Citizen or Permanent Resident.

www.lmcphysicians.com

Nearby Charlotte: Physician Opportunities | Atrium Health


But yeah, the job market really sucks

 

[Lawpy]

Man this website is the best. It’s doomsday every single day and nobody ever realizes that none of the scenarios ever come close to becoming true

Some of the specialty forums can be addicted to doomsday scenarios, sometimes for good reasons (like pathology and rad onc).

 

[DNC127]

The problem is that just last year, the government predicted a 13% increase in the number of physician jobs in the next decade. In 2017 it was 15%, then 2018 it was 13%, now 2019 it's 7%. It's becoming abundantly clear that the whole "physician shortage" thing is based on bunk data. Still, the AAMC wants to increase residency spots by 50%.

And no, not all physicians get jobs. Many specialties aren't able to work in the location they want to. Many pathologists and radiological oncologists have a hard time getting jobs. Other specialties need to get fellowships for a job (like ortho, 95% have fellowships, and peds hospitalist may soon need a fellowship).

Also, does the job market for the average person look good to you right now lol. Average is 5% growth, so 7% growth is actually pretty bad. Computer science is something like 30% growth, and healthcare in general is 13% growth.

95% of ortho people have fellowships due to practice structure. Not because they can't get jobs. Practices like to have a hand/UE, joints, spine, ankle, sports, etc guy in house. So people do fellowships to meet that structure. Also ortho fellowships are only a year.... If you are anywhere but a big city you likely practice some scope of general ortho anyways unless you are in a very large group.

 

[DoctwoB]

The point some are making is right now, there is almost no such thing as an unemployed residency trained physician barring some big red flags. That means, the number of physician jobs = the number of physicians give or take. So the rate of growth in physician jobs =rate of growth of residency spots.

The bigger question is rate of growth of demand for physician services, which is a different thing.

 

[nimbus]

95% of ortho people have fellowships due to practice structure. Not because they can't get jobs. Practices like to have a hand/UE, joints, spine, ankle, sports, etc guy in house. So people do fellowships to meet that structure. Also ortho fellowships are only a year.... If you are anywhere but a big city you likely practice some scope of general ortho anyways unless you are in a very large group.

That means it’s required. I would have guessed that 100% of ortho grads are doing fellowships. I haven’t seen a new non-fellowship trained orthopedist in over 20 years. Same for radiology.

 

[AlwaysContrary]

Growth for PA and NPs are around 30% each 😱

 

[thumbz]

Growth for PA and NPs are around 30% each 😱

When we recruit docs we post a job for months and maybe get 1-2 applicants. When we recruit for a midlevel we post the job and get a bunch of applicants right away, and often reject interviewing anyone who doesn't already have 1-2 years of clinical experience. And I'm in a rural location, I can imagine it's worse in the big cities (but have no actual experience with this, I'm extrapolating before you jump down my throat). Much like with pharm and law, all these online diploma mills cropping up for NPs is going to slaughter their profession. There is always going to be a need for doctors, and no volume of midlevels will ever negate that. Not unless the expectations of healthcare delivery drastically change in the minds of the US population.

 

[BorderlineQueen]

When we recruit docs we post a job for months and maybe get 1-2 applicants. When we recruit for a midlevel we post the job and get a bunch of applicants right away, and often reject interviewing anyone who doesn't already have 1-2 years of clinical experience. And I'm in a rural location, I can imagine it's worse in the big cities (but have no actual experience with this, I'm extrapolating before you jump down my throat). Much like with pharm and law, all these online diploma mills cropping up for NPs is going to slaughter their profession. There is always going to be a need for doctors, and no volume of midlevels will ever negate that. Not unless the expectations of healthcare delivery drastically change in the minds of the US population.

True but if a hospital hires they’ll hire 1 physician and then 4 midlevels to have a 4:1 supervision ratio. I’ve heard too many horror stories about a physician being fired and then a mid level gets hired . A practice in Dallas got bough out they terminated all the pediatricians in one day and hired all mid levels.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

When we recruit docs we post a job for months and maybe get 1-2 applicants. When we recruit for a midlevel we post the job and get a bunch of applicants right away, and often reject interviewing anyone who doesn't already have 1-2 years of clinical experience. And I'm in a rural location, I can imagine it's worse in the big cities (but have no actual experience with this, I'm extrapolating before you jump down my throat). Much like with pharm and law, all these online diploma mills cropping up for NPs is going to slaughter their profession. There is always going to be a need for doctors, and no volume of midlevels will ever negate that. Not unless the expectations of healthcare delivery drastically change in the minds of the US population.

Yep. My group has 6 openings for FPs right now and none for midlevels.

The NPs/PAs all had contract meetings last week. They were told there was to be no negotiation over the contracts and if they didn't like it, there were a dozen applicants waiting for their jobs.

I thought it would take longer for the NPs to screw themselves out of the market than this, but here we are.

 

[BorderlineQueen]

Yep. My group has 6 openings for FPs right now and none for midlevels.

The NPs/PAs all had contract meetings last week. They were told there was to be no negotiation over the contracts and if they didn't like it, there were a dozen applicants waiting for their jobs.

I thought it would take longer for the NPs to screw themselves out of the market than this, but here we are.

Depends on the type of np. Family medicine nps probably. Psych nps are in high demand around 90 plus job opportunities in the Chicagoland area.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

Depends on the type of np. Family medicine nps probably. Psych nps are in high demand around 90 plus job opportunities in the Chicagoland area.

We're hiring for 2 psychiatrists, no psych midlevel jobs open at this time.

 

[VA Hopeful Dr]

I got a question:

When does a big clinic determine whether to hire a mid vs a physician? At least at your shop

No clue, I'm not involved in that process at all

 

[thumbz]

I got a question:

When does a big clinic determine whether to hire a mid vs a physician? At least at your shop

At my shop we base it on acuity and how often we are admitting patients we feel would be appropriate for a midlevel to care for. We have 8 hospitalist teams - one of them has a midlevel. We tend to have them care more for the social situations, stable COPD's, and other conditions that could likely be treated at home if the patient had the resources (such as a reliable caregiver to make sure they don't fall asleep in a chair without their oxygen on). Anything sick, unstable or complex goes to an MD. Midlevels are great and fill a specific role, but the problem is people are trying to use them well beyond what they were ever designed to do. When they get sick patients it turns into a panconsult service and I inevitably get curbsided in the hallway.

As we continue to move away from fee for service and towards bundled payments my suspicion is these hospitals that are replacing hospitalists and PCPs with midlevels are going to go back to physicians as the panconsult is going to take money out of their pockets.