We ALL wish we knew the answer to this ? !
I think it is dangerous nonetheless to play this game. In a sense, all progs (maybe your home that much more) are blowing smoke up your skirt or kilt. Every prog wants everyone to rank them 1st. You are likely correct you are a golden child at your prog, but what if you are wrong?
The idea that you wouldn't be happy with your 5th choice to me seems a little blind. I have been impressed so far with all the progs, in some way.
The really ? is "would I rather scramble than go to X?"
And really since scrambling is nearly nonexistent in gas now, the ? is "would I rather go into another field thru the scramble?"
There r so few scramble spots, I would personally rank every prog this yr. what r the odds u will successfully scramble AND into a prog u like better than your least favorite that u interviewed?
I am conservative. You will 95% likely match at your home prog, and 99% in top 5. But, think of how many people get diagnosed with rare diseases...