Facing an application-related dilemma

[weezy700]

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We've all seen those threads and sites urging applicants to apply early. Unfortunately I was simply just not ready. I received my average 31 MCAT score (11/9/11) August 13, and now embark on my final year of college with a 3.95 GPA. I was originally planning on only applying to USF through their 7-year MD program after meeting all benchmarks to apply (with clinical EC + research + shadowing). However, after my advisor told me I could finish my degree over the summer, and that I had the option of applying to other schools as well while retaining 7-year status at USF, I went ahead and added about 10 schools. I submitted my primaries 10/1/13, finally being satisfied with my personal statement.

I understand I am indubitably late in the process, but does that implicate that I am really out of the game? what are my chances at other schools?

Any insight or experiences with such late applications would be appreciated.

Thanks

 

[Adria0]

Applying late does not mean you are necessarily "out of the game." It just means the game may be a lot tougher than it has to be. I am speaking generally here, I will let others speculate on what constitutes "late."

 

[Cambover]

I would say that it depends on what schools you applied to and what the rest of your application looks like. You will probably receive fewer IIs or much later IIs than you would have if you had applied in July, but no one can say that with any certainty.

 

[mcloaf]

I would say that it depends on what schools you applied to and what the rest of your application looks like. You will probably receive fewer IIs or much later IIs than you would have if you had applied in July, but no one can say that with any certainty.

This. We can't tell you anything you don't already know.

You are late, it will probably hurt you. How much? Nobody knows.

Try not to stress about it and hope for the best. Good luck!

 

[BlackBox]

this. We can't tell you anything you don't already know.

You are late, it will probably hurt you. How much? Nobody knows.

Try not to stress about it and hope for the best. Good luck!

+1

 

[weezy700]

I will patiently await my secondaries and submit them as soon as possible, since its about all I can do at this point. Thanks to everyone for the words of encouragement. I have not lost hope.

But I did want to make a comment regarding later applicants vs earlier, as I have been doing a little research and have found some interesting things that nobody has seemed to notice.

It is easy to become discouraged by the applicant vs available spot ratio as it decreases month by month. But, if I may humbly ask, what the *&$^#*%Q does the number of available spots have to do with anything? Let me explain what I mean by this:

Somewhere in these forums I found what looks like reported applicant data from the AAMC, (http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showpost.php?p=14167807&postcount=6) stipulating that around 35+% of students apply in june, 20% in july, with numbers dwindling all the way down to <10% in October.

Now, if it is a fact that rolling admissions schools review applications as they come, it is probably safe to assume that the rate of applicant review remains constant throughout the application cycle, until all spots are filled. Thus, when October applicants are beginning to be reviewed and scheduled for interviews, all applicants from all the months before have already processed, as many people here would concur. This means that the only "real" competition for October applicants, is other October applicants, since all the students that came before them have already been placed in the yes pile, the maybe pile, or the no pile (regardless of whether its admittance or interview consideration). Thus, the effective number of "competition" a given applicant has at any point in time, also remains somewhat constant

In accordance with sdn, common knowledge, and Uwash spot availability over time (as shown here http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showpost.php?p=14168921&postcount=19) available spots indeed are lower the longer you wait. But take a careful look at the graph, the line is almost completely straight, meaning spots are filled by a set amount each month, effectively preventing the exhaustion of spots before all applicants can be reviewed. What this tells me is that the application procedure can be subdivided into cohorts, with each cohort having an equal amount of competition for the same number of spots each month.

Looking at this http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showpost.php?p=13825593&postcount=7 (compiled from 800+ applicants and 1200+ applications), sure its easy to state that acceptance rate goes down with each month. However, the applicant numbers go down as well, making the plot somewhat misleading in my opinion.

If late applications indeed had a quantifiable effect on the chance an applicant has to become accepted, then the relationship between higher mcat scores and admittance rate(as seen in aamc data, here http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showpost.php?p=13825376&postcount=4, and here http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showpost.php?p=13832134&postcount=14) would be more skewed and not proportional. But we see the opposite here, higher LizzyM scores correlate to higher chances of admittance, despite application timing.

So lets assume there are 100 total applicants for Uwash for a given cycle (using amcas and uwash applicant data as reference). This means 35 june applicants compete for 15 july spots, 20 july for 15 august ones, 15 august ones for 15 september ones and so on. The ratio appears to decrease as time goes on, but in reality the initial slur of applications most likely backlog onto next-month-spots, essentially keeping the amcas-verified queued applicant to available-monthly-spot ratios constant over time.

In summation, the applicant/timeline distribution, the influence qualifications exert over admission "chances," and the spot-filling timelines for schools (again, using Uwash as an example of a normal rolling admissions school) seem to elucidate a fair process, where applications submitted and reviewed well before any school deadlines are given equal consideration for spots, essentially preventing the entire crew of June-July applicants from snagging 100% of available spots in the school, and ensuring all applicants that are in the system before the submission deadlines have a more-or-less decent chance of gaining admittance.

I am not trying to start arguments or challenge the experiences of veterans or med-students with more knowledge. Simply presenting my ideas with the same supporting data that everyone uses to demonstrate the importance of applying early.

Hopefully there is some merit to my thought-process, and validity to my assumptions.

 

[CyberMaxx]

Let me start by saying that this is a seriously long post! Also, make sure that you pre-write all of your secondaries instead of patiently awaiting them!

You have put together a number of useful resources and made a few good points. One factor that you should take into consideration however, is that many schools review all applications every time the admissions committee meets, not just once. If you think about it, this makes sense. Even if an applicant doesn't stand out enough to offer an interview to them the first time around, comparing them to a larger group may show that they are really one of the stronger candidates. The opposite is also true. If applicants are constantly reviewed then there is a real disadvantage with regards to the size of the applicant pool.

I do agree with the general thrust of your argument though. Although important, applying early is probably over-stressed on this forum. This may be wishful thinking though 🙄

 

[candbgirl]

When did you submit your primary?

I truly got lost in your big dissertation above but many schools review applications each month so if your application is initially reviewed in October you will probably be reviewed with applications from June-October. By no means are you only up against other October applications if you apply in October.

 

[LizzyM]

Let me see if I can explain this with some made-up numbers.

Let's say a school is going to interview 600 applicants, 100 per month from September through February.

Let's say that there are 6000 applications and that the secondaries arrive as follows:

July: 2000
August: 2000
Sept.: 1000
Oct 500
Nov 500

Interview invites go out ~ 4 wks in advance.

September interviews, 100, are extended to 100 of the 2000 July applicants, leaving 1900 uninterviewed.

October interviews, 100, are extended to the best of the 3900 applicants that came in by the end of August.

November interviews are extended to the best 100 of the 4800 applicants in the queue.
December interviews go to the best 100 of the 5200 applicants who are still waiting for interview invites.

January interviews go to the best 100 of the 5600 applicants still waiting.

February interviews go to the best 100 of the 5500 still waiting.

Someone who is amazing may get interviewed even if they apply on the last day but most people are going to be at a disadvantage competing against 5500 others for one of those last 100 slots.

 

[weezy700]

Yes it would be 5500 competing for 100 spots, but the best 400 out of those have already been invited for interviews. Which means if you are good enough to be in the top 100 of the june pool, you're probably good enough to be in the top 200 of the june-july pool, the top 300 of the june-july-august pool, and so on. So if you can't be in the top 5% of the June applications, even applying early won't help at all!! The end result is the interviewing of the top 5% of the entire applicant pool. Since application bottlenecking is unlikely, chances are the disadvantage is marginal (assuming no correlation between application quality and time of submission).

 

[LizzyM]

Yes, the cream will rise and will be skimmed but it is awfully hard to identify the best of the remaining applicants when there are 10 slots left and 25 really, really good applicants who deserve interviews. Those 25 would have been slam-dunks in September but by January/February the calendar pushes back.

 

[Harpsx]

I'm going to offer an anecdotal story here to what LizzyM is saying.
At one of my top choices that I reapplied to, they told me they had written on my previous application that I was an excellent fit for their school, but they just didn't have any room left to invite me. I reapplied much earlier this year, received an II and right now am feeling really excited about it 😳

If you are truly an amazing applicant that is the best of the best for that school, it may not matter when you apply. But with such a competitive applicant pool with more than enough qualified people, it's hard to see yourself in that light and I can imagine from an adcom's POV that they'd have to make some tough decisions when everyone is so great.

 

[weezy700]

Thankfully, things worked out in the end. I only submitted applications to UCF, USF, UF and IU. UCF gave me an II a few days ago (despite the fact that interview slots are pretty much gone in december - at least for UCF), and I was accepted to the USF morsani college of medicine after my interview on Dec 10. Although I have not heard from other schools, I could not be happier with my acceptance, since USF was my first choice. I wish the process had been less stressful, but I am glad I did not lose hope.

 

[Great White Buffalo]

woohoo congrats to you!! You have something special, which is what all us cookie cutter candidates dream about. I fretted about applying in Early Sept. Like LizzyM says, the cream always rises to the top!!

 

[Catalystik]

Congrats!