Failure To Match: Causes, reasons, trends, etc?

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LoveBeingHuman:)

I would like to have a thread about this because, apparently, this is a worsening issue. For what reasons, mainly, would a medical school senior fail to match? Are there any major trends?
 
Having multiple red flags (pre-clinical failures, Step failures, poor LORs/MSPE, bad attending evals, etc) is probably the biggest one followed by applying inappropriately. That can mean applying to a field you're not competitive for or just to programs you're not competitive for (bottom of the class with 200 Step 1 and mediocre letters should not be applying to derm or top tier IM programs). Some don't apply to enough programs or just apply to the wrong ones. Another big problem would be if you're a bad interviewer or just have a generally toxic personality. No one will want to rank you if they think they'd hate working with you. A few people will just get unlucky, though I'd emphasize the "few" part of that statement.

There's a lot of reasons someone would go unmatched which are dependent on the individual app. Imo most of them can be summed up by either applying poorly or just being a crappy applicant (or some combination of both).
 
Having multiple red flags (pre-clinical failures, Step failures, poor LORs/MSPE, bad attending evals, etc) is probably the biggest one followed by applying inappropriately. That can mean applying to a field you're not competitive for or just to programs you're not competitive for (bottom of the class with 200 Step 1 and mediocre letters should not be applying to derm or top tier IM programs). Some don't apply to enough programs or just apply to the wrong ones. Another big problem would be if you're a bad interviewer or just have a generally toxic personality. No one will want to rank you if they think they'd hate working with you. A few people will just get unlucky, though I'd emphasize the "few" part of that statement.

There's a lot of reasons someone would go unmatched which are dependent on the individual app. Imo most of them can be summed up by either applying poorly or just being a crappy applicant (or some combination of both).

For the applying too poorly part... isn't that what the SOAP is for essentially?
 
I would like to have a thread about this because, apparently, this is a worsening issue. For what reasons, mainly, would a medical school senior fail to match? Are there any major trends?

There are only ~2 broad reasons why USMDs don't match.

1) Not applying broadly enough in a noncompetitive specialty
-Regardless of Step 1 or really any other factors there's no reason why the worst of MD students can't match into the vast majority of specialties if they apply to enough programs and are willing to go anywhere. This could be anything from peds to anesthesia. Some people with bad stats will only apply to 20 programs all in desirable cities and wonder why they don't match with a 200. If they applied broadly, there's no excuse not to match in 85% of specialties

2) Applying for competitive specialties
-(2a)Unqualified applicants will rarely match but every year many people with no chance apply and end up not matching.
-(2b)Qualified applicants should match, however the truth is that a significant proportion of good applicants won't match despite being amazing candidates and there's really nothing that can be done. That's the price of applying to competitive specialties and is a risk that many of us are willing to take.

To summarize: reasons 1 and 2a are inexcusable reasons not to match, but unfortunately many people are cocky and full of hubris and fall into these 2 categories. Don't let this be you! Do not apply narrowly or to a specialty you're not qualified for; you will not match! You're future is too important to roll the dice with. Reason 2b will always exist and is the unfortunate truth about the match process that can't be avoided. In a perfect world we'd only see 2b cases, but I would guess there are as many 1 and 2a cases combined as there are 2b. No reason the match rate shouldn't be 97 or 98% even with terrible match rates in the competitive specialties.
 
Apparently from what source? Your apparent assumption is factually incorrect. The match rate for seniors has been hovering around 94% for years and has remain as such even with a 30% increase in US MD graduates over the past decade.

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Links
NRMP Data 2017 http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2017.pdf
ACGME Data 2016-2017 ACGME Data Resource Book

Ok that is my mistake then. I just assumed it is a worsening issue because of the increase in US medical student numbers happening.
 
Preferring ortho is a significant cause of failure to match.
In the most recent data from AAMC:
188 US Seniors failed to match in that specialty.
-93 of these had a Step 1 score of 241 or better.
-68 had 5 or more publications.
 
Preferring ortho is a significant cause of failure to match.
In the most recent data from AAMC:
188 US Seniors failed to match in that specialty.
-93 of these had a Step 1 score of 241 or better.
-68 had 5 or more publications.

Of those 188 seniors, how many failed to match at all in any speciality?
 
Of those 188 seniors, how many failed to match at all in any speciality?
We don't have access to that, but in my long experience, it is almost impossible to get an ortho applicant to apply to another field on their first application.
We are lucky to get them to add surg pre-lims to the bottom of their list.
 
I would like to have a thread about this because, apparently, this is a worsening issue. For what reasons, mainly, would a medical school senior fail to match? Are there any major trends?

There are only ~2 broad reasons why USMDs don't match.

1) Not applying broadly enough in a noncompetitive specialty
-Regardless of Step 1 or really any other factors there's no reason why the worst of MD students can't match into the vast majority of specialties if they apply to enough programs and are willing to go anywhere. This could be anything from peds to anesthesia. Some people with bad stats will only apply to 20 programs all in desirable cities and wonder why they don't match with a 200. If they applied broadly, there's no excuse not to match in 85% of specialties

2) Applying for competitive specialties
-(2a)Unqualified applicants will rarely match but every year many people with no chance apply and end up not matching.
-(2b)Qualified applicants should match, however the truth is that a significant proportion of good applicants won't match despite being amazing candidates and there's really nothing that can be done. That's the price of applying to competitive specialties and is a risk that many of us are willing to take.

To summarize: reasons 1 and 2a are inexcusable reasons not to match, but unfortunately many people are cocky and full of hubris and fall into these 2 categories. Don't let this be you! Do not apply narrowly or to a specialty you're not qualified for; you will not match! You're future is too important to roll the dice with. Reason 2b will always exist and is the unfortunate truth about the match process that can't be avoided. In a perfect world we'd only see 2b cases, but I would guess there are as many 1 and 2a cases combined as there are 2b. No reason the match rate shouldn't be 97 or 98% even with terrible match rates in the competitive specialties.

Want to echo this. As an even minimally functionally USMD student, (aka someone who scored within the bottom 10% of step scorers and was able to pass all classes with remediation) there is no reason not to match SOMEWHERE.

USMD students are in a remarkably good position even with the expansion of DO schools. The bottom of the barrel can match, given they apply broadly to a speciality that is not competitive.

That said there has been a marked increase in the competition for highly prized residencies, which is unfortunate in my opinion.
 
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