I'm going to start with some big assumptions. Making sure this is known out the gate. I'm assuming single physician with taxable salary of $150k/yr. Marriage only makes it easier, and as long as spouse makes over 22k/yr per child, assume children are no additional cost. 22k figure is estimated cost per child per year for the first 18 years of child's life. I'm also making the assumption that you are going to rent and not buy a house (considering you are already $300K+ in debt and likely wont get another massive loan for a few years....although the case could be made that taking out a second mortgage to pay off loans by securing a lower interest rate on your mortgage is theoretically advantageous. Will not be discussed here.) Also, I'm considering no accrued debt or interest out of college. A BIG assumption, but compounding all of that interest on top of everything (for something incredibly variable like ~5-50K over 2,3,4? years...it gets very hectic very quick; at best I'll add an end note about paying this off "afterwards"). All of that said here's the proposal:
Begin med school @ Total Cost per year of 75k/year (tuition + fees + books + COL)
rough estimate. Take out loans for 75k each year at compounding interest leaves you at
~308K debt starting residency.
Peds is 3 year residency. During residency apply for forebearance under medical residency manditory forebearance clause (assuming all criteria are met). The forebearance does not stop interest, just removes the minimum payment so you can have breathing room during residency.
All residencies pay similarly, ~40-50k/yr. Assuming 45k/yr: ~10k goes to income tax, social security, and medicare "off-the-top". 30k COL (extra $5k/year "spending money" vs med school). Leaves a minimum 5k/yr to combat interest of loans and prevent further acruement. Ideally this leaves us with ~300k or preferably just under 300k debt starting out as attending. More assumptions: assume salary and COL dependence on urban/rural is are comparable and can be controlled for. Also, assume average attending pediatrician average salary is $150k over first 5 years. (first 2 years lower, last 3 years equal to higher).
Based on these numbers, a pediatrician making $150k/yr pays $35293 in income tax (source: open information about tax brackets easily found on google), $7254 in social security (source: also google-able, rate of 6.2% of up to $117k income). $2175 into medicare at a 1.45% rate on entire taxable income (source: IRS). Estimated malpractice costs: 15k/year (very conservative estimate). This totals ~$60k "off-the-top" before you've touched a penny you've earned. That said, you're left with an outright $90k entirely disposable income. We've stated that you are renting, not owning your house, likely have a car payment (Civic's are cheap and reliable), food, personal expenses, business clothes. Single or Married with spouse earning >22k/child/yr + his/her own living expenses.
Most calculations will say that in order to live comfortably, one should pay ~10% of income per year to pay off student loans. If that were the case it would take you basically forever to pay off this much debt (hense why after 20 years of IBR/PAYE people still have to have large sums forgiven). At a COL of $30-35K/yr, yes low, but I would hardly call this "living like a pauper." Remember this is straight up COL not income. The respective income to have a COL of 30-35K/yr is ~40-45k annual salary...not great, but a LOT of people live comfortably on this (and remember, this is only for a matter of a few years vs being "bled" for 20 yrs). T
his amounts to $90k disposable minus 30k COL = $60k/yr ideal repayment rate (or a monthly repayment of $5k/month).
Using
http://www.finaid.org/calculators/loanpayments.phtml at 300k debt with a 6.8% (grad PLUS/Stafford interest rate),
it would take almost exactly 6 years to pay off at 5k/month. (9 years from graduating med school)
Needless to say I originally quoted 5 years attending, but 6 seems close to me.
As I later posted:
PAYE is much more benificial to low income physicians with very high debt to the point that you might as well throw out all my numbers above because it's so much better to be "bled" for ~500/yr residency to 1-1.5k/month attending for 20 years (even if you have to pay taxes on your forgiven amount at the end) because it is less (saves 30k or more) versus the $308K + 60k interest you will pay in the 6/9 year plan as proposed above. Plus you can live even more "comfortably" or have a stay-at-home husband/wife, etc.
Feel free to question the numbers. There were a lot of assumptions.
EDIT: I seemed to have missed state income taxes in this whole jumble. (I'm from PA where it's flat-rate and low at that which takes out ~1500/yr residency and 4500/yr attending = 6extra months. ~6.5yrs).