Future demand for peds

[iatrosB]

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Whenever I tell people I am interested in peds they say two things:
1. Why, they make the least amount of money,
2. There will be a surplus of peds docs in ten years because of the aging population.

I don't care about number one, peds docs make plenty of money. It is number two that bothers me. Will there be a surplus of peds docs in the future? It makes sense because the current generation has children less frequently than the baby boomers did and the baby boomers aren't going to have more babies. What are your thoughts?

 

[jdog]

Whenever I tell people I am interested in peds they say two things:
1. Why, they make the least amount of money,
2. There will be a surplus of peds docs in ten years because of the aging population.

I don't care about number one, peds docs make plenty of money. It is number two that bothers me. Will there be a surplus of peds docs in the future? It makes sense because the current generation has children less frequently than the baby boomers did and the baby boomers aren't going to have more babies. What are your thoughts?

This is a subject that has been written about in both medical and nonmedical literature. If you do a search on the web, you will find articles. Also go on pubmed or md consult and you can find articles.

In plain terms, there already is and will continue to be a saturation of peds docs on major cities and suburbs of major cities. There is a shortage and will continue to be a shortage of peds docs in smaller towns or less desireable places to live.

Please to not let this sway you in any way. Pretty much every specialty except for a few havet he same problem. The market forces are somewhat unpredictable and dynamic. For instance 10 yrs ago anesthesia was oversupply and their salary plumetted. Same with radiology. Now the table has turned and they are in high demand and with great renumeration.

Bottom line for your particular circumstance, if you truely do not care about number 1 above, salary, then you will be able to get a job wherever you want in peds. If you really do care about number 1, it takes a little more work

 

[iatrosB]

Thanks jdog, I had heard that the supply of physicians wasn't the problem, it is the distribution of them. I actually want to do a rural practice but is that possible. Usually FP's set up shop in smaller towns.

 

[kas23]

I am hearing over and over (like a broken record) about how the demand for peds subspecialists is much higher than the supply.

 

[iatrosB]

I am hearing over and over (like a broken record) about how the demand for peds subspecialists is much higher than the supply.

What about general practice peds?

 

[kas23]

What about general practice peds?

This is totally dependant on where you are practicing.

 

[AF_PedsBoy]

I always hear that specialty requirements ebb and flow - MUCH LIKE A SINE WAVE!!! Besides - as long as people enjoy makin' the kids, we'll be in business! (my numerous pregnant 14 year olds that I saw during Ob/Gyn and Family back me up!)

 

[fourthyearmed]

My opinion is that no matter what happens in the future (depression, etc.) pediatricians will be the ones that survive and get the patients. People even take their kids to the doctor before they take themselves. There will always be a need for peds and the job security is a heck of a lot better in my opinion than for something like PM&R (they'll be the first to go when people have no money).

 

[kas23]

And just because the PERCENTAGE of patients that will be pediatric will decrease doesn't mean that the ABSOLUTE (the only number we really care about) number will decrease. I could be wrong, but has the absolute number of pediatric patients decreased at all in the last twenty years?

 

[LuckyMD2b]

And just because the PERCENTAGE of patients that will be pediatric will decrease doesn't mean that the ABSOLUTE (the only number we really care about) number will decrease. I could be wrong, but has the absolute number of pediatric patients decreased at all in the last twenty years?

You're exactly right.

To think that there will be fewer children because the population is "aging" is illogical. The popuation is continuing to grow faster than ever. Although a good amount of the growth is due to immigrtion, there are still more Americans being born than are dying. Of course that ratio is on the decline, but even if people are having children later, they are still having children-- each of whom will need a pediatrician.

The aging of the population has more to do with people dying at older ages, than it has to do with a decrease in the number of live births. Thankfully the US isn't like Japan or western Europe, yet.