great article!!!

[DrEvil518]

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Hey, everyone!

I hope I'm not re-posting an old article, and if so, please forgive me! I realize it's from 2002, so not extremely up-to-date, but the predictions it makes seem to reach pretty far into the future. It's got an extremely positive outlook for Optometrists 🙂 Anyone seen this or have any input? Thanks again to such a great and informative forum! I'm addicted!

http://www.optometric.com/article.aspx?article=70463

 

[KHE]

Hey, everyone!

I hope I'm not re-posting an old article, and if so, please forgive me! I realize it's from 2002, so not extremely up-to-date, but the predictions it makes seem to reach pretty far into the future. It's got an extremely positive outlook for Optometrists 🙂 Anyone seen this or have any input? Thanks again to such a great and informative forum! I'm addicted!

http://www.optometric.com/article.aspx?article=70463

With all due respect to Dr. Edlow, I believe he is in very serious la-la land.

I will point out a few of what I believe are the major flaws of his arguments:

1) He advocates that there is not an oversupply yet he freely admits that arguements FOR an oversupply are valid.

2) The babyboomers have been presbyopic for many years and are already in the spectacle/optometric pipeline so to speak. The notion that aging baby boomers are going to save optometry is a non starter.

3) He freely admits that optometrists are grossly inefficient, and also admits that new technologies will allow more patients to be seen by fewer ODs.

4) His income survey data comes from the AOA which means the survey is biased towards AOA members who are more likely to be doing financially well. If I was making $72k slaving away as an independent contractor in some private practice somewhere, I'm not too likely to shell out close to $2000 for dues to the AOA.

5) He advocates attracting medicare PPO patients to your office. That is fine and dandy IF you can be admitted onto that panel. (Please see dozens of earlier postings by me outlining this problem)

6) Even if we accept the hypothetical that an aging population will require more eyecare services, he provides no evidence that it will be ODs who provide the majority of those services. Many people will bypass ODs alltogether by either self referal to ophthalmology or being referred to ophthalmolgy by their own PCP.

But arguing his points or even arguing against mine is irrelevant. Here is the best way to show that there is oversupply of optometrists in virtually all areas of the country, and it is something I have suggested doing in the past.

Pick an area of the country. Any area you want. Urban, suburban, rural. Then phone up some local ophthalmologists and ask when you can get an appointment for a non emergent eye exam. I am willing to bet that the average wait time will be 4-6 weeks.

The phone up some ODs in the same area. I will bet that you can get an appointment with more than 90% of them within two days and many of them will have large yellow page ads proudly displaying "WALK INS WELCOME." I am also willing to bet that more than a third of them will offer you a same day appointment.

What does this say? It says that there is a large demand for eyecare, but it is NOT ODs who are meeting that demand. If that does not spell out oversupply, then I don't know what will. And there is no trend on the optometric landscape that makes me think that that will change any time in the next 10 years.

So feel free to flame away.....

 

[DrEvil518]

Hi KHE,
I definitely don't want to flame! I'm still trying to decide if this is a good field to pursue (I'm a career changer, coming from a web design background. IMO, there is no worse profession out there than the one I just left!)

I like that you will pick apart an article, because the last thing I want to do is contribute to an oversupply of ODs (at the same time as shooting myself in the foot.) I would hope to practice in the San Diego viscinity, and since SCCO is only a few hours away, I would imagine this is a fairly saturated area.

One thing I wanted to ask about, though, is whether you think the fact that so many women are pursuing this career will affect the projected oversupply. Do you think that (1) said women will actually go part-time to raise a family? personally, i'm not sure I want marriage or kids, and I wonder if the same goes for other women in the field (2) if these women really do intend to go part-time, this will create more opportunities for the additional Opt school grads?

I appreciate honesty, since I blindly dashed in web design 6 years ago, only to find myself joining a group of over-worked, under-appreciated, easily-replaceable cogs. I most certainly do not want to make the same mistake again, so I truly appreciate your input!!!!

Oh, a few more questions...(1) Do you think Lasik (and the requisite follow-up and pre-op visits) will increase the need for ODs? (2) Will the increase in manpower of ODs eventually benefit us in our ability to eventually perform more and more previously ophthalmologic duties?

I have become interested in Optometry more for the lifestyle and interaction with people/helping aspects than the money, so I wouldn't be deterred by lower income forecasts. I don't want to contribute to the problem of lowered income in any way, but honestly, I made so little as a web designer that I would be happy to run a practice that makes significantly less than the figures I've seen. I am happy to take a lower income, in order to practice in an urban area, because I grew up in rural TX and people are got a lot of grief for being ethnically different from the norm. However, if I will forever be struggling to make ends meet (Cali is soooo expensive), I suppose it's worth exploring other career options.

Thank you!!!!

 

[KHE]

Hi KHE,

One thing I wanted to ask about, though, is whether you think the fact that so many women are pursuing this career will affect the projected oversupply. Do you think that (1) said women will actually go part-time to raise a family? personally, i'm not sure I want marriage or kids, and I wonder if the same goes for other women in the field (2) if these women really do intend to go part-time, this will create more opportunities for the additional Opt school grads?

Oh, a few more questions...(1) Do you think Lasik (and the requisite follow-up and pre-op visits) will increase the need for ODs? (2) Will the increase in manpower of ODs eventually benefit us in our ability to eventually perform more and more previously ophthalmologic duties?

Thank you!!!!

I do not believe that the increase in women in optometry will have a substantial effect on what I believe is a tremendous oversupply.

I do not believe that LASIK will have a great effect on optometry either pro or con in the future. I will say however that the large build up of demand for LASIK that we saw in the late 90s and early 2000s has passed. While LASIK is still popular, I think that the trend is moving away from ODs managing these patients within the context of their own office to one in which ODs manage patients as employees of the surgical center itself or as employees of opthalmologists.

The increase in optometric manpower will have no effect on optometry's ability to expand scope into areas previously ophthalmolgic areas because:

A) The vast majority of ODs do not want this expansion
B) The current optometric education and training model does not prepare students well for this mode of practice. Optometry is not "ophthalmology lite." While there is some overlap of services, they really are two separate professions with different emphases.

If you are defiantely committed to practicing in the San Diego area, I would seek out graduates in that area who are 10 years out of school or less and find out what their successes and failures have been.

You probably don't have an adequate frame of reference to understand this next statement but I encouarge you to think about it. You must find out if you can gain admission onto medical insurance plans in the San Diego area. If you can, great. If you can not, San Diego may not be the place for you.

 

[DrEvil518]

Sorry, KHE, just read some of your previous posts, and I bet you are going to suggest that I check out how willing medical insurance companies
are to accept Optometrists on their plan in this area.

I will definitely do so on Monday morning.

In the meantime, though, I am wondering...what if you end up in the worst possible situation where you practice in an area where you can't seem to get on any insurance plans? Would a person do so badly they'd default on loans? Or would they simply have to start charging so little that they compete with commercial establishments? Or are you saying that would essentially force people to go commercial and have less control over their hours, etc.

I know I'm pretty ignorant....this is all a little overwhelming...but I'm extremely grateful to have access to a forum where I can learn the facts about the field before I apply to school. I have considered Physical Therapy, but I have even heard that field is supposedly going to have less insurance reimbursements in the future. Despite the projected growth of the field b/c of the baby-boomers, of course 😉 I have no desire to go to med school, and I'm getting to the point where I am gonna just go to the local cc and blindly pick a new trade....just not behind a computer, LOL.

Oh! That brings me to the point that I HAVE read that people's overuse of computers over the last few years will lead to more need for eyecare professionals. Any thoughts?

Again, I'm sorry if I'm asking for repeat info...please feel free to link to an old post if you have already gone through this. THANK YOU!!!!

 

[DrEvil518]

weird timing! Thanks! I had just gone through your old posts while you were writing that, so I'm beginning to understand what you mean about the medical insurance companies....

 

[KHE]

Sorry, KHE, just read some of your previous posts, and I bet you are going to suggest that I check out how willing medical insurance companies
are to accept Optometrists on their plan in this area.

I will definitely do so on Monday morning.

You have started your learning well, my Padawan.

In the meantime, though, I am wondering...what if you end up in the worst possible situation where you practice in an area where you can't seem to get on any insurance plans? Would a person do so badly they'd default on loans? Or would they simply have to start charging so little that they compete with commercial establishments? Or are you saying that would essentially force people to go commercial and have less control over their hours, etc.

If you end up in the worst possible scenario, as you describe it, you can still make decent money. You will not default on your loans. However, you will essentially be left working commercial or opening an office of your own and living off of low paying VISION plans and attempting to retail spectacles to make your living. Unless you are prepared for that, you will end up extremely bored and extremely frustrated because you will essentially end up owning an eyeglass store.

Now, there is nothing wrong with that, but you do not need 4 years of difficult, expensive, time consuming post graduate training to do this. If you want to open an eyeglass store, become an optician and open an eyeglass tore. Don't go to optometry school.

 

[DrEvil518]

Oh yes, one more thing...I have contacted several recent grads in the SD area (based on a list sent from the admissions counselor at SCCO) and nobody has returned my calls. I have been welcomed to shadow two older Opts in the area, though. I'm not sure what that means, honestly!

You DEFINITELY raise an interesting concern about whether newly minted ODs can get accepted onto these plans. THANK YOU for opening my eyes!!!

 

[DrEvil518]

Dang, you are FAST with your replies! Thank you so much!!!

I definitely do see your point. Honestly, after working as a web designer for so long, the worst case scenario you describe isn't terrible. Anything is better than being berated by inept design managers who require you to stay at work til 8 pm and pay you slave wages. Yes, it's very expensive schooling if you end up simply opening a glasses shop, but it's not a horrid scenario for me personally. Just curious, what is your new career? Or are you still an Optometrist? If not, are you happier? Do you miss Optometry?

Do you see any trends of Opts being accepted onto health plans less often over the years?

BTW, I don't know the forum etiquette around here, so if this is more of a private message convo, just let me know! And if you get sick of all my questions, I'm sorry...just tell me to go away and I will! I cannot even begin to tell you how helpful you have already been!

 

[cpw]

Dang, you are FAST with your replies! Thank you so much!!!

I definitely do see your point. Honestly, after working as a web designer for so long, the worst case scenario you describe isn't terrible. Anything is better than being berated by inept design managers who require you to stay at work til 8 pm and pay you slave wages. Yes, it's very expensive schooling if you end up simply opening a glasses shop, but it's not a horrid scenario for me personally. Just curious, what is your new career? Or are you still an Optometrist? If not, are you happier? Do you miss Optometry?

Do you see any trends of Opts being accepted onto health plans less often over the years?

BTW, I don't know the forum etiquette around here, so if this is more of a private message convo, just let me know! And if you get sick of all my questions, I'm sorry...just tell me to go away and I will! I cannot even begin to tell you how helpful you have already been!

I'm sure other pre-ODs have the same questions.. so feel free to keep them public 🙂

 

[JeffChou]

Yes, please.