Help me predict the highest earning specialties! ~ 2020-2025

[garagebulb]

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I'm not yet in college, but am doing research into this and know that around that time will be when I'll be done with my undergrad, med school, and residency.

What do you guys here suppose will be the top earning medical fields around a quarter of the way into this century? My little bit of research and assumption makes me think that Ortho Surgery, Neuro Surgery, Nuclear Medicine, Radiology, and Radiation treatment will still be somewhere among the top five or six. Am I wrong?

I know there are a lot of good armchair medical career futurists hanging around here. Straight up, what do you guys think will be the fields with the highest demand around 2020-2030?

 

[Inuranic]

Wise-crackin' meatball surgeons.

 

[OCallag]

I think you might have the wrong approach to medicine...

 

[garagebulb]

I think you might have the wrong approach to medicine...

That really isn't my approach. I'm just interested and would like some honest and interesting feedback and responses to feed my curiosity. I'm still in high school!

 

[corbis11]

general practitioner

 

[Depakote]

In 2021, there will emerge a single highest paying specialty... RoboDoc.

Thousands of years ago in the great winter of the Robotic Physician Wars, Robodocs roamed the earth freely. With them, they carried small monkies, whom they called "Steve"... and it was good. For the RoboDocs were well paid for their services.

Then one day, an 82 year old lady tried to sue a RoboDoc... the events that followed were the first time a person was successfully pulled inside out using their own toe nails. It was published in JAMA.

How do I know this? I came back to the past to save that 82 year old Adrienne Barbeau.

 

[imallday17]

a. everything is becoming soo specialized, people will have to go back to their GP for things besides "referrals", b/c specialists will price themselves out of business (expecially if the gov't "actually" steps in

b. anything that minimizes invasive procedures

c. cancer treatment of all sorts.. they will never unveil a cure for cancer… too much money in treatment

d. medicine will evolve 4353453 times over before then im afraid.... good or bad I don’t know.... well see

 

[coffeebythelake]

a. everything is becoming soo specialized, people will have to go back to their GP for things besides "referrals", b/c specialists will price themselves out of business (expecially if the gov't "actually" steps in

b. anything that minimizes invasive procedures

c. cancer treatment of all sorts.. they will never unveil a cure for cancer… too much money in treatment

d. medicine will evolve 4353453 times over before then im afraid.... good or bad I don’t know.... well see

Minimally invasive procedures are the way to go. I'm also hoping people will turn to the preventive side of medicine as well.

 

[deleted103730]

porn star doctor. it's a new specialty. and i'll be the only one. i win.

 

[Inuranic]

Wise-crackin' meatball surgeons.

Does anyone get this Family Guy reference? You know, when they hide out in Asiantown?

 

[OCallag]

Does anyone get this Family Guy reference? You know, when they hide out in Asiantown?

Family Guy sucks.

 

[alwaysaangel]

What do you guys here suppose will be the top earning medical fields around a quarter of the way into this century?

Straight up, what do you guys think will be the fields with the highest demand around 2020-2030?

Just so you know - these are two INCREDIBLY DIFFERENT questions. The highest paid in medicine doesn't mean the highest in demand.

Every year during the residency match lots of people are turned away from radiology, ortho, etc. specialties because there are so many applicants that they only take the top of the top. In general, there are plenty of specialists in the US, yes there are areas that need more, but for the most part they are not extremely "in demand."

Now take a Primary care practitioner (pediatrics, family medicine, some unspecialized internal medicine doctors). These are in high demand. There are not enough of them in most places of the country and there aren't enough people going into these fields because of the low low pay.

So back to your original question, who will make the most in a few years. That depends on a lot of things. NPs and PAs moving into primary care, the excess of specialty physicians in our country and lack of PCPs, whether or not our country actually tries for socialized medicine (unlikely), and what if anything the government decides to do if/when they realize there needs to be better compensation for PCPs or we won't have any anymore.

I personally believe the last is the most likely. I will probably go into Primary care, and while I'm certainly not counting on it (nor do I scoff at 120k+ as a "low" income - it just is relative to other physicians). I do think that the government may be forced to offer even more loan forgiveness/extra pay programs for physicians going into underserved areas as primary care providers.

 

[Non-TradTulsa]

Straight up, what do you guys think will be the fields with the highest demand around 2020-2030?

Staight up, in the major health system where I worked for many years before medical school, we never made financial projections farther out than three years. Trying to project five years into the future made everyone burst out laughing. You'll have to find a medical futurist who can tell you what the physician reimbursement system in this country will look like in 2020 before you can even begin to talk about specialties. Geriatrics will be in extremely high demand but it's unlikely that it well ever pay well - it's going to be a labor of love. I'd focus your energy more on your prom and trying to get into a decent undergraduate institution.

 

[GoldShadow]

If things go according to plan, by 2025 I will have eliminated all disease, illness and suffering, so physicians won't even be needed unfortunately.

 

[Law2Doc]

they will never unveil a cure for cancer… too much money in treatment

They won't find a cure for cancer, but not for the reason you suggest. It is not a single disease -- it is many, and requires multiple forms of approach. As such, there will never be a wonder drug that is one-size-fits-all. That and the fact that anything that kills cancer also kills some non-cancerous cells to some degree, so a single eradicating dose of any med is unlikely. But it's certainly not about the money -- people would cure it if they could.

 

[BlackSails]

By 2025, doctors will not be needed except in research. Neural Networks will be able to diagnose patients, and through their pattern recognition abilities + robotic sysems will even be able to do surgery.

There have already been tests of diagnosing neural networks. In 13 patients with thyroid conditions, it beat 3 internal medicine docs.
http://portal.acm.org/citation.cfm?id=791226.792116

 

[Law2Doc]

. Am I wrong?

I would say yes. There is no way to predict the future like this. New technologies and meds will be invented. Turf wars will change which practices are doing what -- interventional radiology may bump surgeons out of certain fields, better drugs may lessen needs for surgery or radiation, etc etc. Who knows. And as a dozen threads will tell you, it is likely the healthcare system won't be the same that far in the future, possibly moving to a more socialized or universal system, and so fields that can do more procedures per hour may find it easier to make money than those which require the more lengthy procedures. Certainly the baby boomer generation will have its impact on medicine by then, so elder care will be of import, but at that vantage point they may see that the population age has peaked and is going to start getting younger, changing the focus.

Bottom line is that looking so far out is foolish. Wait until your third year of med school and see what fields you enjoy. Then pick one -- any numbers you see at that point are likely to still be close to accurate by the time you make it through. But as a prior poster suggested, you don't pick a field by the money. It is such a long and hard road that if you don't enjoy it you are screwed no matter what it pays.

 

[maxflash04]

Go have some fun while you're in high school.

Google has the answers to all.

In fact, I'd be willing to bet 99.9% of all "factual" information relayed by the members of SDN is someway affiliated with the fabulous search engine.

How about you focus on graduating high school, taking your ACT/SAT, getting a (girl/boy)friend, going to & graduating college, etc. before concerning yourself with any of this? Sounds like a plan!

(By the way, Madden 08 comes out 8/14 -- go spend money and focus on achieving great milestones!)

Long story short: Live each day as if it's your last. Who knows if the human race and/or this planet will exist that far in to the future!

... *terribly irked right now* ... *goes back to slaving away* ...

 

[TheRealMD]

I'm not yet in college, but am doing research into this and know that around that time will be when I'll be done with my undergrad, med school, and residency.

What do you guys here suppose will be the top earning medical fields around a quarter of the way into this century? My little bit of research and assumption makes me think that Ortho Surgery, Neuro Surgery, Nuclear Medicine, Radiology, and Radiation treatment will still be somewhere among the top five or six. Am I wrong?

I know there are a lot of good armchair medical career futurists hanging around here. Straight up, what do you guys think will be the fields with the highest demand around 2020-2030?

Perfect reason why SDN hates high schoolers. They have one thing on their mind, money.

Please figure out if you actually LIKE medicine first before asking stupid questions like that. Seriously. 😡

 

[Meatwad]

Perfect reason why SDN hates high schoolers. They have one thing on their mind, money.

Please figure out if you actually LIKE medicine first before asking stupid questions like that. Seriously. 😡

Bingo. OP sucks.

 

[imallday17]

i cant agree more about the money factor, and the long road to be followed... but in all fairness to the OP, not everyone is born knowing they want to practice medicine... i know when i was in high school, alls i was ever told is that a dr. makes a ton of money and a lot of people look up to them... if it weren’t for having family in medicine i may have had a money driven mentality as well...

if you declare medicine as something you want, my advice would be to go start shadowing early, maybe even before you go and spend 4 years following a bio/chem/phys/hum. whatever whatever degree... predicting the future will be tough regardless, medicine advances too rapidly to try…

and my best advice above anything you’ve read so far…. Don’t feel hesitant to ask “any” questions you have here on SDN, regardless of what a couple people write about you… This site will be more of an asset than any book or advisor you could use… You might as well Save It to your favorites now, and use the “search” function for anything under the sun that’s related and you’ll be good as gold

 

[maxflash04]

Bingo. OP sucks.

Let's dance

 

[PeepshowJohnny]

It's impossible to predict. For example, look at the GI subspecialty. Talking to people in the field, 20 years ago it wasn't as near as profitable as it is now. However, no everybody should get getting a colonoscopy on turning 50, increased knowledge about the danger and treatment of GERD, and irritable bowel disease becoming more and more recognized, they're raking in the cash. Trends in society, new treatments for old diseases, and how insurance companies reimburse will change how medicine is practiced in the future. In 50 years dermatology may be a joke of a field that has trouble attracting anyone if there are changes in their pay and lifestyle and everyone may be striving to become family practice if the reimbursements and work hours change.

 

[PreMedDocMD]

They won't find a cure for cancer, but not for the reason you suggest. It is not a single disease -- it is many, and requires multiple forms of approach. As such, there will never be a wonder drug that is one-size-fits-all. That and the fact that anything that kills cancer also kills some non-cancerous cells to some degree, so a single eradicating dose of any med is unlikely. But it's certainly not about the money -- people would cure it if they could.

Good job, that is exactly what a research scientist said when I spoke to him about it. He said cancer is many, many diseases, so it will be almost impossible to cure all of them (at least in this generation). But, scientists are working on cures for individual types. This same scientist developed (with his group) a drug that targets some cells in the tumors of esophageal cancer, and kills the tumor by limiting the tumor of oxygen. When I asked why this couldn't be done to all cancer tumors, he said it can, but the hard part is finding out the cells that are only found in those certain kinds of tumors.

 

[TheRealMD]

Good job, that is exactly what a research scientist said when I spoke to him about it. He said cancer is many, many diseases, so it will be almost impossible to cure all of them (at least in this generation). But, scientists are working on cures for individual types. This same scientist developed (with his group) a drug that targets some cells in the tumors of esophageal cancer, and kills the tumor by limiting the tumor of oxygen. When I asked why this couldn't be done to all cancer tumors, he said it can, but the hard part is finding out the cells that are only found in those certain kinds of tumors.

More ore less, I predict that we'll figure out what causes and how to prevent cancer long before we know how to cure it.

 

[Auron]

some believe the cure might already exist...

http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/Cancer/conspiracy.html

 

[maxflash04]

some believe the cure might already exist...

http://www.quackwatch.org/01QuackeryRelatedTopics/Cancer/conspiracy.html

Cancer conspiracy theories?

I've never heard of that before!

...

 

[radi0headfan]

OP, it's good that you have an initial interest in medicine for whatever reason it may be, but make sure you follow-up on this by shadowing/volunteering as some of the others suggested. Never be in a rush either, medical schools aren't going anywhere!

 

[artaxerxes]

Radiology/ Imaging specialists..... enchanced imaging technology will dominate in the future, and as surgery becomes less invasive and more imaging guided, they will be the ones with the expertise to perform most operations.

 

[medguy83]

I think it's great that you're interested in medicine in high school, but I think your rationale for pursuing a career in health care may be a bit naive. I too made my decision to go into medicine in high school, near my junior year. To be honest, I had no idea just how much work and effort it would take just to get to the point of actually applying to medical school. Even after deciding upon medicine my time was still mostly spent dating, going out with friends, and applying to college; things I think you might be better doing around now. You've got to learn to think one day, one class, one task at a time. It's like saying I wonder what type of victory meal I'll eat at base camp after summiting mt. Everest; all the while you've never even climbed a rock. It's good to be ambitious, but stay focused on accomplishing things in prep for graduating HS and getting ready for college instead of how much money you'll make in any particular field. If money is what you're after go into something else that won't require half the hell it will take to earn an MD. Good luck.

 

[Law2Doc]

...It's good to be ambitious, ... If money is what you're after go into something else that won't require half the hell it will take to earn an MD. Good luck.

I'm not sure a focus on "highest earning" jobs is "ambitious" as much as it is misguided. You need to get to the point where you know what you want to do for a living. Different specialties do very different things for a living -- you may love one and hate another. Once you get closer, and know what you like to do, and have narrowed the field significantly, then perhaps you should take notice of what pays what. But to set out on a mission to get to what might be highest earning suggests you probably shouldn't go into medicine at all -- the ceiling is higher in other fields, and statistically the typical college premed freshman won't get into med school, and if s/he does s/he statistically will not be in a highest earning specialty, but will be working in an primary care type field.
To use medguy's everest analogy -- asking what specialty will earn most is a lot like asking whether you will earn more promotional money by climbing mount everest or by diving to the bottom of the Pacific -- they are about as far apart as you can get and the money is really not the important component in deciding which direction to go.

 

[Narmerguy]

Perfect reason why SDN hates high schoolers. They have one thing on their mind, money.

Please figure out if you actually LIKE medicine first before asking stupid questions like that. Seriously. 😡

I seriously wish you all would stop generalizing all High Schoolers because some (or even most) are naive and/or have material aspirations. I get instant distaste from other people on this forum the minute I mention I'm a High Schooler and I'm pretty sure most of you know very little about me. Responses like this only encourage that type of behavior. 👎

Yes his post is dumb but don't make it something that incriminates all high schoolers.

 

[Gut Shot]

Straight up, what do you guys think will be the fields with the highest demand around 2020-2030?

First off, read this. Medicine is the same; an inherently chaotic process. Predicitions mean doodly-squat. My middle brother applied for radiology residency in 1993, and it was super competitive. Two short years later the job market was in the tank. You couldn't give radiology residency spots away. Three years after that the market was better than ever. Now it's starting to teeter.

Bottom line: worry about getting laid. Some regular nookie will make you a much more confident individual, and the adcoms really dig on that.