How long do you have to wait to be verified? (graph 2012)

[seracus]

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I posted this in the verification thread but thought others might also be curious to know how the data lined up this year so far.

To make the graph, I plotted all the dates posted in the thread. I excluded dates which were affected by late hard-copy transcript arrivals and outliers (possibly typos or early admission apps with higher priority).

The number of days post-initial submission until verification seems to be plateauing now at around 40 days. For example, that means if you submitted on August 24th (today), you will probably not be verified until around October 3rd, assuming the plateau holds.

To avoid some confusion, the 2013 application cycle was verified in 2012, the 2012 application cycle was verified in 2011, etc. My years refer to when the apps were verified whereas AMCAS refers to them by matriculation year.

(trendline: polynomial, order of 3; R^2 = 0.965)



Edit: for comparison, graphs from the last two years below.

Edit2: a rough comparison of all three graphs scaled onto the same image. Image editing isn't my forte, and I do not have access to the data used by AMCAS, so this is the best I can do for now.

Edit3: another look, this time zoomed in, thanks to PreMedOrDead.

I have also just uploaded the excel sheet for those who want to tinker with the data or update it later on.

 

[pfaction]

I can't see it, but I'm sure it's nice work. I submitted June 8th and was verified June 21st.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

Can you juxtaposition this graph with the one from last year? I feel like the differences will be staggering...

 

[eefen]

I'll just leave this here. Look at slide 25 for comparison.

Edit: Nice work, btw.

 

[seracus]

For easy access, here's the image file of slide 25:

Rather embarrassing for AMCAS. The peak wait time for the 2013 application cycle is already 15 days (!) higher than last year's 25 day peak.

 

[pfaction]

Bah, I can't see anything at rotations, maybe when I go home. But wow, 40 days is ridiculous.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

For the graphs, can you make the scales the same size? The 2011 is 0-20 days and the 2012 is 0-30. Making them both 0-30 would be far better for comparison's sake.

 

[eefen]

For the graphs, can you make the scales the same size? The 2011 is 0-20 days and the 2012 is 0-30. Making them both 0-30 would be far better for comparison's sake.

The graphs that he edited into the OP are basically images from a slide. So probably not. But I agree, it would make for a somewhat easier comparison.

 

[seracus]

For the graphs, can you make the scales the same size? The 2011 is 0-20 days and the 2012 is 0-30. Making them both 0-30 would be far better for comparison's sake.

I did not make the official AMCAS graphs, so I can't actually change them. However, I can resize the image components and overlay them on each other. Hope this image helps contextualize them for you.

Note that the line for verification in 2012 would be off the scale. The current peak in waiting time is now more than 65% greater than the highest peak in 2011 and more than 120% greater than the highest peak in 2010.

 

[Praefectus]

I feel lucky to be verified right now 🙂

 

[seracus]

Sorry this image is a little rough, but I've added in the line from this year's verification process so far for a point of comparison.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

The graphs that he edited into the OP are basically images from a slide. So probably not. But I agree, it would make for a somewhat easier comparison.

I was hoping someone else would do it, but I'm genuinely interested.

Give me a couple minutes to jimmy something up with PS

Edit: Nevermind, Right when I posted that (hadn't refreshed page) everyone beat me to it... haha. Nice work guys, thanks!

 

[seracus]

I feel lucky to be verified right now 🙂

Yeah, as someone who submitted in early August after a calculated decision taking into account previous years' verification data, I feel a little blindsided. Oh well, such is life.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

Here's my zoom up on June/July timeline.

Not going to lie, this is a shockingly awful job by the AAMC. I submitted in early June and still didn't get verified until mid July. I can only imagine the killer wait now.

 

[seracus]

For those interested in the data, I've attached the excel sheet I made. I have not updated the data since I last posted in the verification thread, so more data not yet included in the set will probably turn up over the next few months for those hoping to update the graphs.

 

[BABSstudent]

Sorry this image is a little rough, but I've added in the line from this year's verification process so far for a point of comparison.

Wow, hopefully I get an acceptance somewhere. I feel lucky to have three interviews, but looking at this makes me disappointed and disenfranchised about the current cycle.

 

[angemon89]

What's with the slowness this year?

Edit: Nvm, I guess we can't really conclude that it's slower this year just by getting the statistics from SDN.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

What's with the slowness this year?

Edit: Nvm, I guess we can't really conclude that it's slower this year just by getting the statistics from SDN.

It is twice as slow this year, as evidenced by our data.

This is likely due to technical problems in the DC area (IIRC) as well as ~20% increase in applications thus far.

Still isn't really an excuse...

 

[kpcrew]

Why are you guys getting down on AMCAS? The people reviewing applications at schools can only get through so many a day. Faster verification just means a bigger backlog and there's no guarantee that you will be offered an interview even if they look at you early.

 

[eefen]

Nice work you guys (and gals...?). 👍

 

[Arbor Vitae]

I posted this in the verification thread but thought others might also be curious to know how the data lined up this year so far.

Can you give the data on how many #s of apps for each year? Like what is the the n value for each group? Is there a lot more people applying earlier, or more overall?

 

[BABSstudent]

Can you give the data on how many #s of apps for each year? Like what is the the n value for each group? Is there a lot more people applying earlier, or more overall?

Well we can't really tell if more people are applying overall until the AMCAS primary application deadline.

 

[Arbor Vitae]

Well we can't really tell if more people are applying overall until the AMCAS primary application deadline.

true. I feel like it's mostly a shift in how early people are applying.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

Well we can't really tell if more people are applying overall until the AMCAS primary application deadline.

This.

The only word we have is that applications are up about 20% thus far.

Damn economy.

 

[pfaction]

Economy tanking? Better try to get into 4 year programs from hell and 200k+ in student loans with declining reimbursement and going broke.

 

[PreMedOrDead]

Economy tanking? Better try to get into 4 year programs from hell and 200k+ in student loans with declining reimbursement and going broke.

To most people, this is still better than being unemployed. Especially true considering doctors don't exactly go jobless. Even declining reimbursement won't make loan repayment impossible.

This would apply more to law students...

 

[seracus]

Why are you guys getting down on AMCAS? The people reviewing applications at schools can only get through so many a day. Faster verification just means a bigger backlog and there's no guarantee that you will be offered an interview even if they look at you early.

If I were a manager at AMCAS, I would have realized far earlier than now that more verification personnel were necessary to keep up with applications. AMCAS should have hired more short term workers last summer after noting trends in increasing wait time, and the fact that they apparently still haven't is not only embarrassing for them but also a disservice to the tens of thousands of users and medical schools who pay them to process applications within a reasonable time period. In my opinion, 40 days for verification at this point in the summer is unreasonable.