**Not a MD/DO vs NP/PA rant. Not trying to portray a doomsday scenario either...**
An economic bubble or asset bubble is a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.
I know a few of us agree that AAMC doctor shortage projections are exaggerated.
Based on HSRA projections there will be more supply of NP/PA in psychiatry than demand in 2030
The excess Psych NP/PA can take jobs due to fewer psychiatrist
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...ch/projections/behavioral-health2013-2025.pdf
Primary care NP and PA supplies are projected to outpace demand for services. Gen peds and Geriatrics are projected to have more supply by 2025. PCP/FM has a deficit which can be filled by excess NP/PA
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...rimary-care-national-projections2013-2025.pdf
The supply of CRNAs is projected to increase by 38 percent between 2013 and 2025
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...ysis/research/projections/crna-fact-sheet.pdf
Except for cardiology, GI, Hem/Onc and Pulm other specialties will be saturated within IM
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...ons/internal-medicine-subspecialty-report.pdf
More critical care physicians and NPs than demand in 2025 (don't know how true this when people care claiming there are many jobs openings)
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...arch/projections/critical-care-fact-sheet.pdf
By 2032, the general hospitalist supply would be about 10,900 to 12,700 higher than demand
Continued expansion of NP/PA programs
Overall employment of nurse anesthetists, nurse midwives, and nurse practitioners is projected to grow 26 percent from 2018 to 2028, much faster than the average for all occupations.
Nurse Anesthetists, Nurse Midwives, and Nurse Practitioners : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Between 2013 and 2025, demand for Emergency Medicine is projected to grow at 9 percent, and physician supply is projected to increase by 18 percent. PA supply in Emergency Medicine is projected to almost double during this period, but the demand is expected to grow only by 9 percent. Consequently, the future adequacy of emergency care providers is likely to be more than sufficient to meet national demand
Huge demand in surgical specialities but with excess PAs. There is a possibility the PAs might get training to do simple procedures.
CONCLUSION: Except for surgical specialities, cardiology, GI and psychiatry everyone speciality appears to have reached a saturation point. I believe there will be shortage in certain rural areas, but expanding more residencies and NP/PA programs will probably not work. Everyone wants to work near urban areas and not in middle of nowhere deserted rural town. Even NPs who go to rural areas prefer to gain experience to eventually move to better cities. Though there are enough jobs for everyone at present, this looks eerily similar to housing market crash in 2008; people were assuming housing prices will keep going high, giving rise to sub-prime mortgages. Similarly, we assume healthcare workers can never be unemployed as there will be more sick patients due to longer lifespan of baby boomer generation. Universities and our organizations do not seem very responsible to control our workforce. Almost every nurse in my hospital is in NP school because they dislike bedside nursing and there is almost a 100% acceptance rate. To preserve the quality of NPs and PAs their organizations should limit the number of graduates to make sure they all can have jobs in the near future. We are not taking in account how advanced technologies can replace simple tasks. I am concerned there will be too many MD/DO/NP/PA competing for jobs in a decade. This will only lead to more hatred among each other.
An economic bubble or asset bubble is a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.
I know a few of us agree that AAMC doctor shortage projections are exaggerated.
Based on HSRA projections there will be more supply of NP/PA in psychiatry than demand in 2030
The excess Psych NP/PA can take jobs due to fewer psychiatrist
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...ch/projections/behavioral-health2013-2025.pdf
Primary care NP and PA supplies are projected to outpace demand for services. Gen peds and Geriatrics are projected to have more supply by 2025. PCP/FM has a deficit which can be filled by excess NP/PA
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...rimary-care-national-projections2013-2025.pdf
The supply of CRNAs is projected to increase by 38 percent between 2013 and 2025
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...ysis/research/projections/crna-fact-sheet.pdf
Except for cardiology, GI, Hem/Onc and Pulm other specialties will be saturated within IM
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...ons/internal-medicine-subspecialty-report.pdf
More critical care physicians and NPs than demand in 2025 (don't know how true this when people care claiming there are many jobs openings)
https://bhw.hrsa.gov/sites/default/...arch/projections/critical-care-fact-sheet.pdf
By 2032, the general hospitalist supply would be about 10,900 to 12,700 higher than demand
Continued expansion of NP/PA programs
Overall employment of nurse anesthetists, nurse midwives, and nurse practitioners is projected to grow 26 percent from 2018 to 2028, much faster than the average for all occupations.
Nurse Anesthetists, Nurse Midwives, and Nurse Practitioners : Occupational Outlook Handbook: : U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Between 2013 and 2025, demand for Emergency Medicine is projected to grow at 9 percent, and physician supply is projected to increase by 18 percent. PA supply in Emergency Medicine is projected to almost double during this period, but the demand is expected to grow only by 9 percent. Consequently, the future adequacy of emergency care providers is likely to be more than sufficient to meet national demand
Huge demand in surgical specialities but with excess PAs. There is a possibility the PAs might get training to do simple procedures.
CONCLUSION: Except for surgical specialities, cardiology, GI and psychiatry everyone speciality appears to have reached a saturation point. I believe there will be shortage in certain rural areas, but expanding more residencies and NP/PA programs will probably not work. Everyone wants to work near urban areas and not in middle of nowhere deserted rural town. Even NPs who go to rural areas prefer to gain experience to eventually move to better cities. Though there are enough jobs for everyone at present, this looks eerily similar to housing market crash in 2008; people were assuming housing prices will keep going high, giving rise to sub-prime mortgages. Similarly, we assume healthcare workers can never be unemployed as there will be more sick patients due to longer lifespan of baby boomer generation. Universities and our organizations do not seem very responsible to control our workforce. Almost every nurse in my hospital is in NP school because they dislike bedside nursing and there is almost a 100% acceptance rate. To preserve the quality of NPs and PAs their organizations should limit the number of graduates to make sure they all can have jobs in the near future. We are not taking in account how advanced technologies can replace simple tasks. I am concerned there will be too many MD/DO/NP/PA competing for jobs in a decade. This will only lead to more hatred among each other.
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