If this process really was a crapshoot....

[fun8stuff]

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Now I am in no way a statistics guru (So correct me if I am wrong), but assuming that applying to med school really is a crapshoot; that is, when applying acceptance is totally random (unlikely), then if you add up all the acceptance rates for the schools you applied to then this should be your overall chance of getting in... right?

Acceptance Rates for Schools Applied:
OH Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine 0.083
PA Drexel University College of Medicine 0.166
PA Jefferson Medical Coll. of Thomas Jefferson Univ. 0.061
WI Medical College of Wisconsin 0.114
MI Michigan State University 0.061
NY New York Medical College 0.121
PA Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine 0.036
IL Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Scien n/a
OH The Ohio State Univ. Coll. Of Med. & Pub. Hlth. 0.113
OH University of Cincinnati College of Medicine 0.177
IA University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine 0.119
MI University of Michigan Medical School 0.061
PA University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine 0.099
MI Wayne State University School of Medicine 0.185

(0.083+0.166+0.061+0.114+0.061+0.121+0.036+n/a+0.113+0.177+0.119+0.061+0.099 + 0.185) x 100 = ~140%

So does mean that statisitcally I should get atleast 1.4 acceptances- if it is totally random?! (Depending on the acceptance rate for Rosalind/Finch) hahahaha

 

[Rogue_Leader]

It doesn't work that way. The probabilaty of randomly getting into one of those schools is hard to calculate, unless you use kindof a backdoor calculation. Given the probability of success for each school, you can calculate the probability of failure as 1 - (probability of success). Then, you can calculate the probability that you don't get into any of them, and 1 - (probabilty you don't get into any of them) = the probability that you get into at least one school. So, from your numbers, the probability of failure is

Rejection Rates for Schools Applied:
OH Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine 1 - 0.083 = .917
PA Drexel University College of Medicine 1 - 0.166 = .834
PA Jefferson Medical Coll. of Thomas Jefferson Univ. 1 - 0.061 = .939
WI Medical College of Wisconsin 1 - 0.114 = .886
MI Michigan State University 1 - 0.061 = .939
NY New York Medical College 1 - 0.121 = .879
PA Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine 1 - 0.036 = .964
IL Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Scien n/a
OH The Ohio State Univ. Coll. Of Med. & Pub. Hlth. 1 - 0.113 = .887
OH University of Cincinnati College of Medicine 1 - 0.177 = .823
IA University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine 1 - 0.119 = .881
MI University of Michigan Medical School 1 - 0.061 = .939
PA University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine 1 - 0.099 = .901
MI Wayne State University School of Medicine 1 - 0.185 = .815

Multiplying all the probabilities of rejection together gives you the probability that you'll be rejected from all of them, which is 0.2245, which means that the probability of being accepted to at least one is 1 - .2245 = .7755 This looks good that you have a 3 in 4 chance of being accepted somewhere, but unfortunately, the statistics are deceiving. Med school admissions are random, but only to a certain point. Applying to your state school with a 30 MCAT and a 3.5 GPA is a crapshoot. Applying to Harvard with a 23 MCAT and a 2.5 GPA is not a crapshoot. There's a certain level where things become random. Also, the rates of acceptance can be deceiving. They're likely just ratios of acceptances to applicants, which can be altered a great deal by number of applicants and class size. I would wager that by that criterion, Harvard would have a higher acceptance probability than BU, just because Harvard gets about 5-6 thousand applicants, while BU gets closer to 8 thousand applicants, however it's pretty much given that between the two schools, Harvard would be the more difficult one to get into. So don't get seduced by the statistics. As Homer Simpson said "Facts can be used to prove anything"

 

[WatchingWaiting]

You're both correct, of course. The "average" person will have 1.4 acceptances, but that will involve some people with zero acceptances and others with multiple acceptances. The chance you are one of those poor suckers with no acceptances is around 20%.

But, of course, the process is not a crapshoot. If your MCAT is in the mid 30s, you have about an 85% chance of acceptance somewhere, whereas if your MCAT is in the mid 20s, you have more like a 25% chance of getting in somewhere acceptance.

 

[leechy]

It doesn't work that way. The probabilaty of randomly getting into one of those schools is hard to calculate, unless you use kindof a backdoor calculation. Given the probability of success for each school, you can calculate the probability of failure as 1 - (probability of success). Then, you can calculate the probability that you don't get into any of them, and 1 - (probabilty you don't get into any of them) = the probability that you get into at least one school. So, from your numbers, the probability of failure is

Rejection Rates for Schools Applied:
OH Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine 1 - 0.083 = .917
PA Drexel University College of Medicine 1 - 0.166 = .834
PA Jefferson Medical Coll. of Thomas Jefferson Univ. 1 - 0.061 = .939
WI Medical College of Wisconsin 1 - 0.114 = .886
MI Michigan State University 1 - 0.061 = .939
NY New York Medical College 1 - 0.121 = .879
PA Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine 1 - 0.036 = .964
IL Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Scien n/a
OH The Ohio State Univ. Coll. Of Med. & Pub. Hlth. 1 - 0.113 = .887
OH University of Cincinnati College of Medicine 1 - 0.177 = .823
IA University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine 1 - 0.119 = .881
MI University of Michigan Medical School 1 - 0.061 = .939
PA University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine 1 - 0.099 = .901
MI Wayne State University School of Medicine 1 - 0.185 = .815

Multiplying all the probabilities of rejection together gives you the probability that you'll be rejected from all of them, which is 0.2245, which means that the probability of being accepted to at least one is 1 - .2245 = .7755 This looks good that you have a 3 in 4 chance of being accepted somewhere, but unfortunately, the statistics are deceiving. Med school admissions are random, but only to a certain point. Applying to your state school with a 30 MCAT and a 3.5 GPA is a crapshoot. Applying to Harvard with a 23 MCAT and a 2.5 GPA is not a crapshoot. There's a certain level where things become random. Also, the rates of acceptance can be deceiving. They're likely just ratios of acceptances to applicants, which can be altered a great deal by number of applicants and class size. I would wager that by that criterion, Harvard would have a higher acceptance probability than BU, just because Harvard gets about 5-6 thousand applicants, while BU gets closer to 8 thousand applicants, however it's pretty much given that between the two schools, Harvard would be the more difficult one to get into. So don't get seduced by the statistics. As Homer Simpson said "Facts can be used to prove anything"

Wow -- impressive stats. Not a stats guru,
leechy

 

[Jason110]

It doesn't work that way. The probabilaty of randomly getting into one of those schools is hard to calculate, unless you use kindof a backdoor calculation. Given the probability of success for each school, you can calculate the probability of failure as 1 - (probability of success). Then, you can calculate the probability that you don't get into any of them, and 1 - (probabilty you don't get into any of them) = the probability that you get into at least one school. So, from your numbers, the probability of failure is

Rejection Rates for Schools Applied:
OH Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine 1 - 0.083 = .917
PA Drexel University College of Medicine 1 - 0.166 = .834
PA Jefferson Medical Coll. of Thomas Jefferson Univ. 1 - 0.061 = .939
WI Medical College of Wisconsin 1 - 0.114 = .886
MI Michigan State University 1 - 0.061 = .939
NY New York Medical College 1 - 0.121 = .879
PA Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine 1 - 0.036 = .964
IL Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Scien n/a
OH The Ohio State Univ. Coll. Of Med. & Pub. Hlth. 1 - 0.113 = .887
OH University of Cincinnati College of Medicine 1 - 0.177 = .823
IA University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine 1 - 0.119 = .881
MI University of Michigan Medical School 1 - 0.061 = .939
PA University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine 1 - 0.099 = .901
MI Wayne State University School of Medicine 1 - 0.185 = .815

Multiplying all the probabilities of rejection together gives you the probability that you'll be rejected from all of them, which is 0.2245, which means that the probability of being accepted to at least one is 1 - .2245 = .7755 This looks good that you have a 3 in 4 chance of being accepted somewhere, but unfortunately, the statistics are deceiving. Med school admissions are random, but only to a certain point. Applying to your state school with a 30 MCAT and a 3.5 GPA is a crapshoot. Applying to Harvard with a 23 MCAT and a 2.5 GPA is not a crapshoot. There's a certain level where things become random. Also, the rates of acceptance can be deceiving. They're likely just ratios of acceptances to applicants, which can be altered a great deal by number of applicants and class size. I would wager that by that criterion, Harvard would have a higher acceptance probability than BU, just because Harvard gets about 5-6 thousand applicants, while BU gets closer to 8 thousand applicants, however it's pretty much given that between the two schools, Harvard would be the more difficult one to get into. So don't get seduced by the statistics. As Homer Simpson said "Facts can be used to prove anything"

That's great, but does any stats guru know how to calculate the odds of getting into just 1 medical school, 2 medical schools, 3 medical schools, etc. just based on the information above regarding the acceptance rates (assuming the process is completely random which we know it's def. not).

Jason

 

[Samus Aran]

there is way too much math in this thread. 👎

😀

 

[eklope2000]

That's great, but does any stats guru know how to calculate the odds of getting into just 1 medical school, 2 medical schools, 3 medical schools, etc. just based on the information above regarding the acceptance rates (assuming the process is completely random which we know it's def. not).

Jason

Say you applied to four schools: A, B, C, and D. Say P(A) is the probability of gaining admission to A (use the listed acceptance rate.) 1-P(A) is the probability of getting rejected from A.

To find the probability that you'll gain admission to at least one medical school (1, 2, 3, or 4 schools), use the method given by the poster above.

To find the probability of gaining admission to exactly ONE medical school, figure out all the combinations of acceptances and rejections that would result in one admission, find the probability of each of these events, and add those probabilities.

Combinations resulting in ONE admission:

Admitted-Rejected
#1: A-B,C,D
#2: B-A,C,D
#3: C-A,B,D
#4: D-A,B,C

Probability of these combinations:
#1: P(A) * (1-P(B)) * (1-P(C)) * (1-P(D)) = P(1)
#2: P(B) * (1-P(A)) * (1-P(C)) * (1-P(D)) = P(2)
#3: P(C) * (1-P(A)) * (1-P(B)) * (1-P(D)) = P(3)
#4: P(D) * (1-P(A)) * (1-P(B)) * (1-P(C)) = P(4)

Probability of gaining admission to ONE school of the four applied:
P(ONE) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4)

Similarly, to find the chances of gaining admission to exactly TWO schools:

Combinations (Admitted-Rejected):
#1: A,B-C,D
#2: A,C-B,D
#3: A,D-B,C
#4: B,C-A,D
#5: B,D-A,C
#6: C,D-A,B

Probability of these combinations:
#1: P(A) * P(B) * (1-P(C)) * (1-P(D)) = P(1)
#2: etc...

Probability of gaining admission to TWO schools:
P(TWO) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) +P(5) + P(6)


Notes:
-The calculation this way is tedious, since you'll often be calculating your chances for 10 or more schools instead of just 4, resulting in many more combinations.
- You can add the probabilities at the end because the events whose probabilities are being added (#1,#2, etc.) are mutually exclusive (could never occur together). Ex: you could never be accepted to A and B and rejected from C and D AND be accepted by A and C and rejected from B and D.

 

[ventulus18]

....or they could glance over your file and throw it in the accept (reject) pile

Say you applied to four schools: A, B, C, and D. Say P(A) is the probability of gaining admission to A (use the listed acceptance rate.) 1-P(A) is the probability of getting rejected from A.

To find the probability that you'll gain admission to at least one medical school (1, 2, 3, or 4 schools), use the method given by the poster above.

To find the probability of gaining admission to exactly ONE medical school, figure out all the combinations of acceptances and rejections that would result in one admission, find the probability of each of these events, and add those probabilities.

Combinations resulting in ONE admission:

Admitted-Rejected
#1: A-B,C,D
#2: B-A,C,D
#3: C-A,B,D
#4: D-A,B,C

Probability of these combinations:
#1: P(A) * (1-P(B)) * (1-P(C)) * (1-P(D)) = P(1)
#2: P(B) * (1-P(A)) * (1-P(C)) * (1-P(D)) = P(2)
#3: P(C) * (1-P(A)) * (1-P(B)) * (1-P(D)) = P(3)
#4: P(D) * (1-P(A)) * (1-P(B)) * (1-P(C)) = P(4)

Probability of gaining admission to ONE school of the four applied:
P(ONE) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4)

Similarly, to find the chances of gaining admission to exactly TWO schools:

Combinations (Admitted-Rejected):
#1: A,B-C,D
#2: A,C-B,D
#3: A,D-B,C
#4: B,C-A,D
#5: B,D-A,C
#6: C,D-A,B

Probability of these combinations:
#1: P(A) * P(B) * (1-P(C)) * (1-P(D)) = P(1)
#2: etc...

Probability of gaining admission to TWO schools:
P(TWO) = P(1) + P(2) + P(3) + P(4) +P(5) + P(6)


Notes:
-The calculation this way is tedious, since you'll often be calculating your chances for 10 or more schools instead of just 4, resulting in many more combinations.
- You can add the probabilities at the end because the events whose probabilities are being added (#1,#2, etc.) are mutually exclusive (could never occur together). Ex: you could never be accepted to A and B and rejected from C and D AND be accepted by A and C and rejected from B and D.

 

[Pinkertinkle]

So my applying to 26 schools virtually guarantees me admissions, sweet.

 

[fun8stuff]

It doesn't work that way. The probabilaty of randomly getting into one of those schools is hard to calculate, unless you use kindof a backdoor calculation. Given the probability of success for each school, you can calculate the probability of failure as 1 - (probability of success). Then, you can calculate the probability that you don't get into any of them, and 1 - (probabilty you don't get into any of them) = the probability that you get into at least one school. So, from your numbers, the probability of failure is

Rejection Rates for Schools Applied:
OH Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine 1 - 0.083 = .917
PA Drexel University College of Medicine 1 - 0.166 = .834
PA Jefferson Medical Coll. of Thomas Jefferson Univ. 1 - 0.061 = .939
WI Medical College of Wisconsin 1 - 0.114 = .886
MI Michigan State University 1 - 0.061 = .939
NY New York Medical College 1 - 0.121 = .879
PA Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine 1 - 0.036 = .964
IL Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Scien n/a
OH The Ohio State Univ. Coll. Of Med. & Pub. Hlth. 1 - 0.113 = .887
OH University of Cincinnati College of Medicine 1 - 0.177 = .823
IA University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine 1 - 0.119 = .881
MI University of Michigan Medical School 1 - 0.061 = .939
PA University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine 1 - 0.099 = .901
MI Wayne State University School of Medicine 1 - 0.185 = .815

Multiplying all the probabilities of rejection together gives you the probability that you'll be rejected from all of them, which is 0.2245, which means that the probability of being accepted to at least one is 1 - .2245 = .7755 This looks good that you have a 3 in 4 chance of being accepted somewhere, but unfortunately, the statistics are deceiving. Med school admissions are random, but only to a certain point. Applying to your state school with a 30 MCAT and a 3.5 GPA is a crapshoot. Applying to Harvard with a 23 MCAT and a 2.5 GPA is not a crapshoot. There's a certain level where things become random. Also, the rates of acceptance can be deceiving. They're likely just ratios of acceptances to applicants, which can be altered a great deal by number of applicants and class size. I would wager that by that criterion, Harvard would have a higher acceptance probability than BU, just because Harvard gets about 5-6 thousand applicants, while BU gets closer to 8 thousand applicants, however it's pretty much given that between the two schools, Harvard would be the more difficult one to get into. So don't get seduced by the statistics. As Homer Simpson said "Facts can be used to prove anything"

Ha, thanks for clarification! If only getting into med school was this simple!

 

[potential]

to the op, people only say its a crap shoot if they are too pathetic too get in. 😎

 

[John Deere Gree]

this thread is making my head hurt

 

[(Dirty Version)]

Now I am in no way a statistics guru (So correct me if I am wrong), but assuming that applying to med school really is a crapshoot; that is, when applying acceptance is totally random (unlikely), then if you add up all the acceptance rates for the schools you applied to then this should be your overall chance of getting in... right?

Acceptance Rates for Schools Applied:
OH Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine 0.083
PA Drexel University College of Medicine 0.166
PA Jefferson Medical Coll. of Thomas Jefferson Univ. 0.061
WI Medical College of Wisconsin 0.114
MI Michigan State University 0.061
NY New York Medical College 0.121
PA Pennsylvania State University College of Medicine 0.036
IL Rosalind Franklin University of Medicine and Scien n/a
OH The Ohio State Univ. Coll. Of Med. & Pub. Hlth. 0.113
OH University of Cincinnati College of Medicine 0.177
IA University of Iowa, Carver College of Medicine 0.119
MI University of Michigan Medical School 0.061
PA University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine 0.099
MI Wayne State University School of Medicine 0.185

(0.083+0.166+0.061+0.114+0.061+0.121+0.036+n/a+0.113+0.177+0.119+0.061+0.099 + 0.185) x 100 = ~140%

So does mean that statisitcally I should get atleast 1.4 acceptances- if it is totally random?! (Depending on the acceptance rate for Rosalind/Finch) hahahaha

not only are you not a stats guru. i wager you havent taken a single statistics class in your life. or if you have, you definitely didn't pass it.

 

[1viking]

I started a thread about this issue--kind of. It talks about the probability of getting an acceptance by changing one variable one unit. Here it is:
http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=130438&page=1&pp=20&