Latest Enrollment Report: What Is The Impact?

[futuredoc15]

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Here are a few tabkes and the full report is here:
https://www.aamc.org/download/251636/data/enrollment2011.pdf

 

[boggvir]

Competitive specialties get more competitive, fmgs and Imgs get squeezed out. More specialties become like the path job market if there is a big increase in residencies (not likely), otherwise simply more US students in primary care.

 

[Evergrey]

Competitive specialties get more competitive, fmgs and Imgs get squeezed out. More specialties become like the path job market if there is a big increase in residencies (not likely), otherwise simply more US students in primary care.

Great, no way I am gonna match ENT now

 

[inspirationmd]

Competitive specialties get more competitive, fmgs and Imgs get squeezed out. More specialties become like the path job market if there is a big increase in residencies (not likely), otherwise simply more US students in primary care.

Yeah pretty much agree. All this is going to do is force more AMG into Primary care. It's also going to make most of the Medicine subspecialties (esp Cards and GI) more competitive as grads who get forced into IM try to specialize. While the top specialties will remain as competitive I think the mid range ones like EM, Anesthesia, and Gen Surg are going to really explode.

 

[sanityonleave]

Competitive specialties get more competitive, fmgs and Imgs get squeezed out. More specialties become like the path job market if there is a big increase in residencies (not likely), otherwise simply more US students in primary care.

Yea. Sadly, this will lead to an even greater stratification of US grads -- with top grads (mostly) going specialty and US grads with lower stats going Peds/IM/FM/Psych.

Also, while this may be controversial: as enrollment increases, the AOA is going to have to tighten their controls on the opening of new DO schools. Allo schools have been relatively static (though there are a few new ones coming down the pipe, more than in recent memory), but DO schools have increased dramatically. I think that allo residencies are going to become more competitive to an extent that if DO schools don't stop expanding at their current rate they'll have a very tiered system where "top" DO schools will be able to match grads into allo programs but lower-tier DO schools will mainly feed out-of-the-way osteo programs (think law school).

In addition, going to the Caribbean becomes an even worse decision.

My 2c.

 

[richse]

I don't think a 22% increase over the stats from 8 prior is that big of a deal. Enrollment is growing an average of 2.75% per year. The projected numbers for 2015 indicate the rate of increase is staying steady. With the population booming it seems like a relatively reasonable rate.

 

[osteohopeful09]

I sure am glad I'm in the system now. I feel bad for anyone who is not a US MD (DO and IMG) in a couple years

 

[DrVanNostran]

Great, no way I am gonna match ENT now

You may not want to in 3 years 😉

 

[inspirationmd]

You may not want to in 3 years 😉

Very true...people change their mind about specialties all the time as they go through medical education.

On the other hand if you were talking about reimbursement well there is always a facial plastics fellowship and a cash based practice...

 

[Evergrey]

You may not want to in 3 years 😉

Haha yeah, I've only ever been in an OR once! There's no way I could know what I want yet.

 

[DrVanNostran]

Haha yeah, I've only ever been in an OR once! There's no way I could know what I want yet.

I loved being in the OR my first year, between my first and second year, and my second year. I still love being in the OR. But for me, the overall package of surgery just wasn't for me. Boy, did I disappoint my family

 

[Dirt]

What it means is FMGs are focked...

 

[TobiasFunkeMDFACS]

The million dollar question is what about the increase in residency spots...especially for specialties. By the looks of it, allo schools will experience little change. It would be hard to imagine that the number of residency spots (for competitive specialties) haven't increased by at least 20% over the past decade.

 

[Dr Love]

We need to restrict the supply of doctors. If this trend continues, there will be a glut of doctors and we will be as broke as lawyers are.

 

[patel2]

so will these changes in competitiveness really start to hit hard gradually over the match in the next few years, or will it take like a decade before match trends really start changing (with EM/gas highly competitive and more US allo in primary care)

 

[2012mdc]

I loved being in the OR my first year, between my first and second year, and my second year. I still love being in the OR. But for me, the overall package of surgery just wasn't for me. Boy, did I disappoint my family

Haha same here. Family wanted me to do plastics.

Also disappointed those who felt I fit the stereotype of an orthopod well.

 

[DrVanNostran]

Haha same here. Family wanted me to do plastics.

Also disappointed those who felt I fit the stereotype of an orthopod well.

You probably like me have a surgeon family. At least you are sticking with anatomy and going rads. When I told my dad that I am 99% sure that I am going into IM, his response was:

"Interventional cardiology is a very good field."

 

[phltz]

We need to restrict the supply of doctors. If this trend continues, there will be a glut of doctors and we will be as broke as lawyers are.

This is such an unbelievably s***** thing to do.

 

[genswim24]

We need to restrict the supply of doctors. If this trend continues, there will be a glut of doctors and we will be as broke as lawyers are.

We already do, it's called residency. There are only so many spots that can get filled each year. It's a fixed number that hasn't changed significantly in some time. More American med students means more IMG's not matching into residency. It doesn't change the total amount of doctors being trained after med school in the US. That is where the bottleneck lies for the number of physicians.

 

[turkeyjerky]

What it means is FMGs are focked...

I wouldn't be so sure. There are a lot of programs in less competitive fields that prematch all of their residents and don't even bother w/ allo grads--will those PDs switch over to matching allopathic grads in the next few years? Maybe, maybe not.

 

[genswim24]

I wouldn't be so sure. There are a lot of programs in less competitive fields that prematch all of their residents and don't even bother w/ allo grads--will those PDs switch over to matching allopathic grads in the next few years? Maybe, maybe not.

This coming year is the last year that they are allowing prematching to occur.

 

[badasshairday]

This coming year is the last year that they are allowing prematching to occur.

Source please?

 

[genswim24]

Source please?

Based on the latest info, the program will start in 2013 :

New>NRMP TO IMPLEMENT "ALL-IN" POLICY

"At its May 16, 2011 meeting, the NRMP Board of Directors voted unanimously to require programs participating in the Main Residency Match to place all positions in the Match. The so-called "All-In" Policy will become effective for the 2013 Match that opens for registration on September 1, 2012. The policy will affect all PGY-1 positions and PGY-2 positions in advanced programs.

The NRMP will continue to accept comments on implementation of the policy, especially as it relates to possible exceptions for residents who enter training off-cycle, GME programs in rural and geographically underserved areas, combined clinical-research programs, and accelerated programs. Final implementation rules will be adopted in May 2012. Read how to submit comments to the NRMP."

Source: http://www.nrmp.org/

 

[inspirationmd]

Source please?

"New>NRMP TO IMPLEMENT "ALL-IN" POLICY

At its May 16, 2011 meeting, the NRMP Board of Directors voted unanimously to require programs participating in the Main Residency Match to place all positions in the Match. The so-called "All-In" Policy will become effective for the 2013 Match that opens for registration on September 1, 2012. The policy will affect all PGY-1 positions and PGY-2 positions in advanced programs.

The NRMP will continue to accept comments on implementation of the policy, especially as it relates to possible exceptions for residents who enter training off-cycle, GME programs in rural and geographically underserved areas, combined clinical-research programs, and accelerated programs. Final implementation rules will be adopted in May 2012. Read how to submit comments to the NRMP."

Scroll down and it's the 2nd comment on all in policy:
http://www.nrmp.org/

 

[DoctwoB]

Based on the latest info, the program will start in 2013 :

New>NRMP TO IMPLEMENT "ALL-IN" POLICY

"At its May 16, 2011 meeting, the NRMP Board of Directors voted unanimously to require programs participating in the Main Residency Match to place all positions in the Match. The so-called "All-In" Policy will become effective for the 2013 Match that opens for registration on September 1, 2012. The policy will affect all PGY-1 positions and PGY-2 positions in advanced programs.

The NRMP will continue to accept comments on implementation of the policy, especially as it relates to possible exceptions for residents who enter training off-cycle, GME programs in rural and geographically underserved areas, combined clinical-research programs, and accelerated programs. Final implementation rules will be adopted in May 2012. Read how to submit comments to the NRMP."

Source: http://www.nrmp.org/

All in doesn't mean that you can't pre-match. It just means that you have to be All prematch or All through the match. The net effect will probably be beneficial to US allopathics as it might open up more spots in the match.

 

[osteohopeful09]

trust me, I hate IMGs and Carrib students more than anything on this planet. they are less than human. The new policy abolishes pre matches.

 

[genswim24]

All in doesn't mean that you can't pre-match. It just means that you have to be All prematch or All through the match. The net effect will probably be beneficial to US allopathics as it might open up more spots in the match.

Ah, I missed that part. Thanks for clearing it up.

 

[Dr Love]

trust me, I hate IMGs and Carrib students more than anything on this planet. they are less than human. The new policy abolishes pre matches.

Preach on brother, preach on. 👍

 

[danzman]

trust me, I hate IMGs and Carrib students more than anything on this planet. they are less than human. The new policy abolishes pre matches.

Just a wee bit harsh don't you think? No prematch also hurts DO students a little bit I would assume.

 

[2012mdc]

You probably like me have a surgeon family. At least you are sticking with anatomy and going rads. When I told my dad that I am 99% sure that I am going into IM, his response was:

"Interventional cardiology is a very good field."

Actually I don't. My mom is an OB, my dad is a writer, and my brother is a lawyer.

They said plastics because it's surgery and it makes a lot of money.

People stereotyped me as ortho because I'm tall and play sports. (I do crack 500 in the step 1 + bench press though )

 

[osteohopeful09]

Just a wee bit harsh don't you think? No prematch also hurts DO students a little bit I would assume.

a wee bit harsh would be saying I hope all IMGs and FMGs are euthanized. I'm just echoing the sentiments of my fellow SDNers, that IMGs etc are the lowest point of humanity. Probably worse than serial criminals. they truly are scum, festering, nasty scum.

 

[patel2]

a wee bit harsh would be saying I hope all IMGs and FMGs are euthanized. I'm just echoing the sentiments of my fellow SDNers, that IMGs etc are the lowest point of humanity. Probably worse than serial criminals. they truly are scum, festering, nasty scum.

 

[Doctor4Life1769]

a wee bit harsh would be saying I hope all IMGs and FMGs are euthanized. I'm just echoing the sentiments of my fellow SDNers, that IMGs etc are the lowest point of humanity. Probably worse than serial criminals. they truly are scum, festering, nasty scum.

🙄

 

[johnmendes]

a wee bit harsh would be saying I hope all IMGs and FMGs are euthanized. I'm just echoing the sentiments of my fellow SDNers, that IMGs etc are the lowest point of humanity. Probably worse than serial criminals. they truly are scum, festering, nasty scum.

 

[Dr Love]

a wee bit harsh would be saying I hope all IMGs and FMGs are euthanized. I'm just echoing the sentiments of my fellow SDNers, that IMGs etc are the lowest point of humanity. Probably worse than serial criminals. they truly are scum, festering, nasty scum.

Amen. They have probably killed more people through incompetence than serial killers, the bastards.👍

 

[docdonny]

a wee bit harsh would be saying I hope all IMGs and FMGs are euthanized. I'm just echoing the sentiments of my fellow SDNers, that IMGs etc are the lowest point of humanity. Probably worse than serial criminals. they truly are scum, festering, nasty scum.

of couse this is all coming from "osteohopeful" who most likely has similar stats to those who went to SGU but need someone to look down upon to get through his day