RE: Over-publication, I find this an interesting notion. I can argue in both directions - that we overpublish, and also that we under-publish!
I just ran an updated literature search for a study I started in mid '09. The literature turned up 370 new articles published in that time frame that are at least peripherally relevant to this area, with about 50-60 being directly relevant. This isn't too obscure an area but there are definitely a limited number of people doing similar work - I imagine it would be far worse for folks in a broader area. As I mentioned earlier, I originally had some notion that it was possible to be completely thorough in a lit search, but that is unrealistic - there is simply no way to keep up on all relevant literature unless you have an overly narrow definition of relevant, which I expect would be a big mistake and slow progress.
On the other hand, its frightening to think that 20 people could have already ran this study and didn't bother publishing it because it didn't pan out. There is no possible way to know this, and it likely results in massive duplication of efforts and wasted time.
Some changed is needed, and I think it needs to happen on multiple levels:
1) Pub counting needs to stop. Impact needs to be defined in more diverse ways - things with lots of citations may not alter the field (especially considering self-citation), and things with few citations may be quite substantive - particularly in clinical areas. Even early-career people should be able to take on large, complex projects without fear that it will negatively impact their career. I've joked before that I'm jealous of folks who do exclusively survey research...I've worked on a few of these projects and the pilot-testing phase of my thesis took way more man-hours than some of those studies took from IRB to manuscript submission. Research area plays a big role in how "much" someone can publish, and I actually feel like the need for publications has discouraged me from pursuing certain areas at this stage. This needs to happen at a university and federal level, but I'm not sure how likely that is. On some level, it makes intuitive sense (its an objective measure of your "contribution") on another, it emphasizes just one aspect of being a good scientist.
2) We need better search tools. Cochrane has the right idea - we need more efforts like that in non-clinical areas. I'd actually like to see a nation (or international) wide catalog of studies, similar to what now is done for pharm trials so even if it fails it is still "known". Easily searchable, helps resolve the file-drawer problem, etc. Minimal peer review (maybe equivalent to conference abstracts) just to make sure these aren't just some undergrad throwing in their final project from research methods. This would especially help with my new pet peeve. Not to pick on social psych, but it seems especially common there..."mutli-experiment" papers. Many of these 3-experiment papers were actually 10-experiment papers with the results that didn't pan out dropped. Work like that carries no substantive meaning and harms the field more than helps it, but it seems to be increasingly common. Registering studies would force people to be a bit more honest
3) Journals need to make better use of space, better use of supplemental materials, more editorial/reviewer discretion and checking. Basically, moving to more of a "scientific" review than a manuscript review. I've kind of taken a dislike to some APA journals, because the intro is often unnecessarily bloated. Keep them short, put in in supplemental materials. Similarly, I don't think the current peer review system actually reviews the important stuff. Its more a review of the writing than of the science...a great writer can make a terrible study sound wonderful. We have papers that "I" don't believe the results of that are still published in absolutely fantastic places. There is often NO attempt to check all the little details necessary to make sure everything was done correctly, and little incentive for researchers to do so. Give me a concise report, but make the details accessible. If people start having to report and check over the details, it should slow the rate of publishing and improve the quality of the literature. I actually think this is the most critical piece, but its not going to be an easy transition.