map of dentist saturation

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akog

I'm sure info like this is already out there, but I was bored this afternoon and decided to do some research/playing around.

I got state population numbers (from wikipedia) and divided them by the number of active dentists in each state (from the Kaiser Foundation). Then I made a spreadsheet and plugged it into a heat map generator. Here's the map. (I'm sure there are errors here and there, but it's fun to think about.)

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The extreme light areas represent about 2100 people per active dentist and the extreme dark areas about 1100. In other words, the darker the state the more dentists per resident, and the darkest states have double the dentists per person compared to the lightest.

The Black Belt in the South is obviously visible. The relative lightness of Vermont, Delaware, and Rhode Island is interesting---they're political entities without really dense metropolitan areas, so they're small glimpses into how saturation trails off away from big cities. (They would look less abrupt if you could see a county by county heat map, I believe.) I guess Oregon must have a pretty large rural population relative to its denser Portland area. Really not sure why Nebraska is so dark.

Looking at that map and comparing it with this great chart of population growth by state from the last century... I gotta say, Texas looks like the place to be.

Now, this is all almost useless because of how zoomed out the perspective is. All the character and variation seen on this level also exists on the county and neighborhood level, which is what the real choice comes down to regarding practice location. But it's good to think big picture. I mean, at least it's obvious here why it's more difficult practicing in the Northeast, for example.

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Good job!!

I am wondering why there s such big difference between New Hampshire and Vermont/ Oregon and Washington.

And why do you think Texas is the places to be ? Isn't the chain business the most popular there ?
 
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Good job!!

I am wondering why there s such big difference between New Hampshire and Vermont/ Oregon and Washington.

And why do you think Texas is the places to be ? Isn't the chain business the most popular there ?

My guess is that NH (compared to VT) and WA (compared to OR) just have a slightly larger proportion of people living closer to urban areas.

I guess I mention Texas because it seems to have a middling patient to provider ratio but also higher population growth. And unlike a state like North Dakota whose population growth is just a recent blip related to the shale boom (and now shale bust), Texas has a longer history of growth.

It's all macro fluff, but I like thinking about it.

Alaska is saturated?

This is why such a zoomed out perspective is not the most useful. I'm guessing most of the Alaska population--patients and dentists--is in a handful of towns in the south. My calculation (and therefore color of the state) is then representative mostly of those areas, while the rest of that *huge* state has lots of underserved places. In other words, a better representation of Alaska would be a few blue dots in the south with vast areas of white... it's just that they all get lumped into one number and one color.
 
Just saw this ad on Facebook today.

Population growth in Texas is concentrated in the 4 largest cities, where there is already plenty of competition, as I think this ad reflects.

I don't think you'll find Texas to be the land of dental opportunity unless you want to go rural, in which case many other states will also suffice.
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Just saw this ad on Facebook today.

Population growth in Texas is concentrated in the 4 largest cities, where there is already plenty of competition, as I think this ad reflects.

I don't think you'll find Texas to be the land of dental opportunity unless you want to go rural, in which case many other states will also suffice.
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That might be the most depressing thing I've seen this week.
 
Just saw this ad on Facebook today.

Population growth in Texas is concentrated in the 4 largest cities, where there is already plenty of competition, as I think this ad reflects.

I don't think you'll find Texas to be the land of dental opportunity unless you want to go rural, in which case many other states will also suffice.
View attachment 204633
Wow. That's an upsetting picture.
 
That might be the most depressing thing I've seen this week.
Wow. That's an upsetting picture.

Yep.
Obviously the "braces special" as a whole is upsetting, but I especially hate seeing dental offices that are open 7 days/week, and advertise as such. And with weekend evening hours to boot.

The more you market yourself like a Walmart (as opposed to a professional health care office), the more the general population will view and treat you like a Walmart.
 
Yep.
Obviously the "braces special" as a whole is upsetting, but I especially hate seeing dental offices that are open 7 days/week, and advertise as such. And with weekend evening hours to boot.

The more you market yourself like a Walmart (as opposed to a professional health care office), the more the general population will view and treat you like a Walmart.
Hey man, you do what you can to stay competitive. Would I rather work 32 hours a week and enjoy my weekends? Sure, but I'm not kidding myself. Patients these days are different than they were 20 years ago. They will shop around and find what's most convenient. And you can't tell me that only being open during typical work hours is convenient for a patient that is working those same hours. If you can find a practice that can support a lot of growth with typical hours, that's awesome. I hope I can too. But I'm willing to grind out some late afternoons and weekends to accelerate practice growth.

Sure, it may suck for us. But you know what? The dentists posting on here that dentistry is doomed are the ones that aren't willing to adapt to this changing market.
 
Hey man, you do what you can to stay competitive. Would I rather work 32 hours a week and enjoy my weekends? Sure, but I'm not kidding myself. Patients these days are different than they were 20 years ago. They will shop around and find what's most convenient. And you can't tell me that only being open during typical work hours is convenient for a patient that is working those same hours. If you can find a practice that can support a lot of growth with typical hours, that's awesome. I hope I can too. But I'm willing to grind out some late afternoons and weekends to accelerate practice growth.

Sure, it may suck for us. But you know what? The dentists posting on here that dentistry is doomed are the ones that aren't willing to adapt to this changing market.

Yeah, I understand it's a tough situation in competitive markets. I'm not blaming or pointing fingers, I'm just saying that it's something I'm seeing more and more of these days, and it totally sucks.

I'd like to ask you about your statement: "But I'm willing to grind out some late afternoons and weekends to accelerate practice growth." To accelerate practice growth... Does this mean you will do this until you acquire a certain number of new patients and then you intend to cut those hours in the future? If so, what keeps those patients from just moving on to the next dentist that still has a 6pm Saturday appointment slot? Or do you mean you'll do it for however long you need to reach a certain financial goal (say, pay off loans) and then you'll stop? Or would you have no patients otherwise because you're in an area that's already saturated with more senior dentists with loyal patients? Basically, what's the issue and what's the end goal? Genuinely interested. Thanks.
 
Yeah, I understand it's a tough situation in competitive markets. I'm not blaming or pointing fingers, I'm just saying that it's something I'm seeing more and more of these days, and it totally sucks.

I'd like to ask you about your statement: "But I'm willing to grind out some late afternoons and weekends to accelerate practice growth." To accelerate practice growth... Does this mean you will do this until you acquire a certain number of new patients and then you intend to cut those hours in the future? If so, what keeps those patients from just moving on to the next dentist that still has a 6pm Saturday appointment slot? Or do you mean you'll do it for however long you need to reach a certain financial goal (say, pay off loans) and then you'll stop? Or would you have no patients otherwise because you're in an area that's already saturated with more senior dentists with loyal patients? Basically, what's the issue and what's the end goal? Genuinely interested. Thanks.

I will do this initially to accelerate practice growth. Not many places where I plan on practicing do this, so it may be a "niche" offering. The market is mostly older retiring dentists, but the growth of the city is leading to the influx of DSO's such as Heartland and Pacific. This is actually promising to me, because if the DSO's demographics show that this is a good place to set up shop, it must be.
Once new patient flow is sustained, and our recall system is on point so that we don't lose many patients, I will hire an associate or bring on a partner, splitting the late hours between us. If these extended hours make for a successful practice, it should be an attractive opportunity for a like-minded partner. Or, an associate fresh out of school who is willing to work late for a slightly higher pay than the local averages.

If an associate covers these later hours, they will take care of the bread and butter dentistry, while I can cover higher production procedures during normal hours, such as molar endo, implants, sleep apnea, etc. People will be much more willing to take time off work for "big" procedures, than for just getting a 20 minute filling.

Now, I have set personal financial goals, upon which I will reward myself by cutting back my hours and staffing more associates. Let's say I'm working 40 hours a week until age 35, where I finish paying off student loans. I will cut back to 32 hours. Then I pay off practice loan by 40. Cut back a few more hours.

My goal is to work 2 days a week, but have a practice open for as many hours as possible to keep some passive income rolling in. It's always cheaper to extend hours in one location than to open a second location. I'm willing to work hard now when I'm young an have energy, and be rewarded later in life.
 
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