Matriculated Stats

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My bad guys! This was a pretty poorly written question. What I meant to ask was how much weight do I put on matriculated states when creating a prospective school list. I ask this because at some school my mcat is around the meadian of all accepted students. However it is in the top ten percentile of those that actually matriculated.
 
Knights256 said:
My bad guys! This was a pretty poorly written question. What I meant to ask was how much weight do I put on matriculated states when creating a prospective school list. I ask this because at some school my mcat is around the meadian of all accepted students. However it is in the top ten percentile of those that actually matriculated.
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Hang on... so you're saying that at these particular schools, the matriculated class is substantially inferior academically than the accepted class?
 
Knights256 said:
My bad guys! This was a pretty poorly written question. What I meant to ask was how much weight do I put on matriculated states when creating a prospective school list. I ask this because at some school my mcat is around the meadian of all accepted students. However it is in the top ten percentile of those that actually matriculated.
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In the example you’ve given either way that school is somewhere that your MCAT matches when creating a school list. Neither stat changes that. Give an example where it does and I think the question would may be more fitting.
 
I'd look at admits, not matrics. You're trying to figure out where you're likely to be offered a seat. Looking at matrics would instead be telling you about their yield on the upper end of those offers.
 
Knights256 said:
My bad guys! This was a pretty poorly written question. What I meant to ask was how much weight do I put on matriculated states when creating a prospective school list. I ask this because at some school my mcat is around the meadian of all accepted students. However it is in the top ten percentile of those that actually matriculated.
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I’d see this as increasing your shot at merit based aid at this school, should you get in. Also could mean you’ll be playing a long waitlist game while the highest scoring acceptees hold a seat in the class and wait for their top pick (But score isn’t everything and this hypothetical isn’t necessarily true).

As others have said, I’d look at both pairs of stats.
 
I think matric is more important than accepted at some places though. A lot of state schools, for example, have accepted stats waaaayy above matriculant stats because they take accept people who are overqualified, for lack of a better word, and then those people matriculate at more prestigious programs. This is actually the case at a lot of mid tier programs, not so much at lower tiers ( most people accepted to lower tiers, that's their only admit), and top programs ( those are the best of the best, so it doesn't get much better than that and most people accepted at at op place will matriculate there unless they have multiple top admits, in which case their profiles are insanely competitive anyway).

IDK if that makes sense but that's what I've noticed when looking through MSAR.
 
mwsapphire said:
I think matric is more important than accepted at some places though. A lot of state schools, for example, have accepted stats waaaayy above matriculant stats because they take accept people who are overqualified, for lack of a better word, and then those people matriculate at more prestigious programs. This is actually the case at a lot of mid tier programs, not so much at lower tiers ( most people accepted to lower tiers, that's their only admit), and top programs ( those are the best of the best, so it doesn't get much better than that and most people accepted at at op place will matriculate there unless they have multiple top admits, in which case their profiles are insanely competitive anyway).

IDK if that makes sense but that's what I've noticed when looking through MSAR.
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If you want to control for the instate/OOS differences, just look at the instate accepted stats or OOS accepted stats for that school.
 
efle said:
If you want to control for the instate/OOS differences, just look at the instate accepted stats or OOS accepted stats for that school.
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Some mid tier private programs have this, as well. I was just using state schools as en example.
 
mwsapphire said:
Some mid tier private programs have this, as well. I was just using state schools as en example.
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I still can't understand why anyone would look at matriculated stats to decide where to apply, even to a mid private.

You aren't answering the question "who gets in here" when you look at those numbers. You're answering "among those who get in, who chooses to attend vs goes elsewhere". People should clearly be using the first to build their school lists. You want to apply to places you'll likely get an admit, not to places where high stats students usually get admitted but turn it down.
 
If your question is "Will they offer me a spot?" then look at accepted students' scores.
If your questions are "Will I fit in there? How am I likely to perform relative to my classmates?" then look at matriculated students' scores.
 
efle said:
I still can't understand why anyone would look at matriculated stats to decide where to apply, even to a mid private.

You aren't answering the question "who gets in here" when you look at those numbers. You're answering "among those who get in, who chooses to attend vs goes elsewhere". People should clearly be using the first to build their school lists. You want to apply to places you'll likely get an admit, not to places where high stats students usually get admitted but turn it down.
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Okay , that's understandable, but couldn't you do some schools based on applicant metrics, and then maybe a few "reaches" based on where you're in the IQR for matriculants?
So say, 10 schools were you're in the IQR for acceptees , and 5 where you're in the IQR for matriculants? Would that be a poor school list?
 
Knights256 said:
My bad guys! This was a pretty poorly written question. What I meant to ask was how much weight do I put on matriculated states when creating a prospective school list. I ask this because at some school my mcat is around the meadian of all accepted students. However it is in the top ten percentile of those that actually matriculated.
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You should targets schools where your stats are closest tot he median, and preferably > their 10th %iles, and even better, > 25th %iles.

Also pay very careful attention to the IS/OOS ratios for OOS public schools!
 
Goro said:
You should targets schools where your stats are closest tot he median, and preferably > their 10th %iles, and even better, > 25th %iles.

Also pay very careful attention to the IS/OOS ratios for OOS public schools!
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But I think they're asking if you mean 10th+/25th+ for acceptees, or 10th+/25th+ for matriculants
 
mwsapphire said:
Okay , that's understandable, but couldn't you do some schools based on applicant metrics, and then maybe a few "reaches" based on where you're in the IQR for matriculants?
So say, 10 schools were you're in the IQR for acceptees , and 5 where you're in the IQR for matriculants? Would that be a poor school list?
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You'd make a better list by looking at admitted stats only, especially now that instate and out of state are separated. That is the answer to "who gets admitted here." I don't know why anyone would want to look at matrics at the list-building stage, other than because the ranges are shifted lower for matrics and they want to make themselves feel more competitive.
 
efle said:
You'd make a better list by looking at admitted stats only, especially now that instate and out of state are separated. That is the answer to "who gets admitted here." I don't know why anyone would want to look at matrics at the list-building stage, other than because the ranges are shifted lower for matrics and they want to make themselves feel more competitive.
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I don't think so, because if you're 25th for matriculants you're generally at least 10th+ for acceptees, so it's worth an application either way...?
IDK I'm just kind of surprised, not trying to be argumentative, I thought Goro would say that you should look at matriculants, so I'm just surprised to hear that's not as good of an idea.
 
I think it's fine to use matriculated, since being below the median for accepted students may give you a false impression that you're not competitive for the school, if matriculated stats are significantly lower than accepted stats. Median accepted stats don't say whether you're likely to gain admittance, as many other factors influence admission decisions. They simply indicate whether you're competitive for the school. But med schools need to fill up their class size. So if accepted stats are significantly greater than accepted stats, median accepted stats overestimate what it takes to be competitive for the school. Since a school needs to fill up its class, comparing your stats to the median matriculated stats necessarily indicates whether you're competitive.
 
DubbiDoctor said:
I think it's fine to use matriculated, since being below the median for accepted students may give you a false impression that you're not competitive for the school, if matriculated stats are significantly lower than accepted stats. Median accepted stats don't say whether you're likely to gain admittance, as many other factors influence admission decisions. They simply indicate whether you're competitive for the school. But med schools need to fill up their class size. So if accepted stats are significantly greater than accepted stats, median accepted stats overestimate what it takes to be competitive for the school. Since a school needs to fill up its class, comparing your stats to the median matriculated stats necessarily indicates whether you're competitive.
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Yes.Exactly.
When there's a big disparity, what's the point of being waaayy above what the students who fill the class? I mean, if you're higher up you'd likely gain an acceptance earlier ( say, earlier in the cycle or never being wait listed), but it doesn't mean you won't get in.
 
Oh my god, no, that isn't how it works. The median accepted MCAT is not an overestimate of what the middle of the pack looks like that gets admitted. By definition. It's only an overestimate of what the class composition would be like if you chose to attend.

This is like being out of state and looking at the instate stats. It's not the right demographic. You aren't asking how you'd compare if you rolled up to class day one. You're asking if you'd get the chance to make that decision.
 
mwsapphire said:
Yes.Exactly.
When there's a big disparity, what's the point of being waaayy above what the students who fill the class? I mean, if you're higher up you'd likely gain an acceptance earlier ( say, earlier in the cycle or never being wait listed), but it doesn't mean you won't get in.
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Because that's who they admit - students way above the average of the actual class. It shows they're OK with a low yield if it means snagging a few high stats kids. It does not mean a lower end score is more likely to get admitted than the admitted range would indicate. The one thing you might glean by comparing like this is that it's especially worth applying if you have high stats, because they are desperately trying to get people like that.
 
I looked at matriculation stats for some schools only b/c my MCAT was significantly higher than my GPA and I wanted to know if there was any way my GPA was even within a range that had been accepted at ALL in the history of that school . It would have helped to know, for example, that it was below the absolute lowest accepted GPA for one of the schools I applied to when my MCAT was above the median. But I think the outliers have to get pretty creative when looking at information - I was going to be outside the 90th percentile on MCAT or below the 10th percentile on GPA (or both), so it only gave me an idea of whether there was even a remote chance of having my application reviewed. Otherwise the accepted data gives a better idea of what you’re looking at.

Keep in mind that all of this is stuff we discuss ad nauseum, but sometimes it seems there are days they use a dartboard to determine who to interview.


Sent from my iPad using SDN mobile
 
efle said:
Oh my god, no, that isn't how it works. The median accepted MCAT is not an overestimate of what the middle of the pack looks like that gets admitted. By definition. It's only an overestimate of what the class composition would be like if you chose to attend.

This is like being out of state and looking at the instate stats. It's not the right demographic. You aren't asking how you'd compare if you rolled up to class day one. You're asking if you'd get the chance to make that decision.
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I didn't say that the accepted median may overestimate what the accepted median stats are. That would be ******ed. I said that the accepted median stats may overestimate the stats you need to be competitive for the school. If the accepted median MCAT for a school is 517 but the matriculated median is 513, then someone with a 513 MCAT would be competitive, since the median student who actually attends the school has a 513. That doesn't imply that the 517 student wouldn't also be competitive - or more competitive. MSAR doesn't give an acceptance rate based on stats. It seems likely that if you had median accepted stats you'd be more likely to gain admittance than if you had the median matriculated stats. Still, if your stats are at the matriculated median, you're competitive for the school, so it's an indicator worth looking at.
 
efle said:
Oh my god, no, that isn't how it works. The median accepted MCAT is not an overestimate of what the middle of the pack looks like that gets admitted. By definition. It's only an overestimate of what the class composition would be like if you chose to attend.

This is like being out of state and looking at the instate stats. It's not the right demographic. You aren't asking how you'd compare if you rolled up to class day one. You're asking if you'd get the chance to make that decision.
Click to expand...

efle said:
Because that's who they admit - students way above the average of the actual class. It shows they're OK with a low yield if it means snagging a few high stats kids. It does not mean a lower end score is more likely to get admitted than the admitted range would indicate. The one thing you might glean by comparing like this is that it's especially worth applying if you have high stats, because they are desperately trying to get people like that.
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Okay, okay, I see what you're saying. Tbh, if/when I plan my school list I'd use accepted and IQR ( not 10th-90th), because I'm actually kinda cynical IRL and just generally more conservative when it comes to making decisions. I was just always under the impression that you didn't need to use that metric, this is the first I'm hearing that accepted is more reliable than matriculant.

Looking at matriculant while plotting a school list is just the wrong cohort to look at, I didn't really think of it that way.

What do you think the point of publishing matriculant stats is, then?
 
accepted seems like the schools wishes for what metrics it wants in a student, and of course that means trying to bump up the median to improve the schools metrics. matriculated is more of the realistic population of students that actually ends up at the school after being accepted at X number of schools and then picking the one they think is the best. It's like a battle between what the student wants and what the school wants. Both are obviously important though because you don't have a chance at a school if they won't accept you, and a school needs to be realistic about who it accepts if they want matriculants..
 
DubbiDoctor said:
I didn't say that the accepted median may overestimate what the accepted median stats are. That would be ******ed. I said that the accepted median stats may overestimate the stats you need to be competitive for the school. If the accepted median MCAT for a school is 517 but the matriculated median is 513, then someone with a 513 MCAT would be competitive, since the median student who actually attends the school has a 513. That doesn't imply that the 517 student wouldn't also be competitive - or more competitive. MSAR doesn't give an acceptance rate based on stats. It seems likely that if you had median accepted stats you'd be more likely to gain admittance than if you had the median matriculated stats. Still, if your stats are at the matriculated median, you're competitive for the school, so it's an indicator worth looking at.
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I don't know how many other ways I can phrase it. Maybe using an example.

School A has an admit IQR of 513-519 and a matriculant IQR of 513-519.
School B has an admit IQR of 513-519 and a matriculant IQR of 510-515.

In which case is a 513 or lower being admitted a more common event?

Answer: They are the same, at both places exactly 1 in 4 admits carries a 513 or lower. When you're making your list the question you are asking is "do 513s rarely/commonly get in here?" And the answer is the same at both. The fact that School B has a lower mIQR does not mean they admit more or less 513s. All that it means is that the higher stats admits usually choose their other options over B.

mwsapphire said:
What do you think the point of publishing matriculant stats is, then?
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I don't think they reason out the value of what they publish. Remember a couple years ago, they published applicant ranges for schools. That was a disaster. If you weren't paying close attention, it looked like a 510 was suddenly very competitive for WashU.

Edit: The above could actually be used as another way of thinking about the topic. Suppose someone says they're very excited with their 513 MCAT because that's around the average applicant MCAT to places like WashU and Penn.

You try to tell them that's the wrong data to look at - look at the admitted student ranges instead, since you want to know how you measure up to their typical admits not to the typical applicant attempting it.

The parallel suggests itself
 
Last edited:
efle said:
I don't know how many other ways I can phrase it. Maybe using an example.

School A has an admit IQR of 513-519 and a matriculant IQR of 513-519.
School B has an admit IQR of 513-519 and a matriculant IQR of 510-515.

In which case is a 513 or lower being admitted a more common event?

Answer: They are the same, at both places exactly 1 in 4 admits carries a 513 or lower. When you're making your list the question you are asking is "do 513s rarely/commonly get in here?" And the answer is the same at both. The fact that School B has a lower mIQR does not mean they admit more or less 513s. All that it means is that the higher stats admits usually choose their other options over B.


I don't think they reason out the value of what they publish. Remember a couple years ago, they published applicant ranges for schools. That was a disaster. If you weren't paying close attention, it looked like a 510 was suddenly very competitive for WashU.

Edit: The above could actually be used as another way of thinking about the topic. Suppose someone says they're very excited with their 513 MCAT because that's around the average applicant MCAT to places like WashU and Penn.

You try to tell them that's the wrong data to look at - look at the admitted student ranges instead, since you want to know how you measure up to their typical admits not to the typical applicant attempting it.

The parallel suggests itself
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upload_2018-4-12_9-37-17.png
 
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