Hi there,
It is way too early to start putting any specialty that interests you out of reach. While optho, derm, ortho, rads and others are very competitive, you still have lots of school ahead of you and lots of things that are under your control. If you know that you really want to go into a competitive specialty, you can start to do whatever it takes to get your grades higher and you can prepare well for USMLE when the time comes.
It is very easy to talk yourself out of achieving in medical school. It is very difficult to do the problem-solving and do whatever it takes to get the grades that you need. You have resources: peer tutors, review courses, faculty and upper classmen who can help you. Ask for help and keep asking until you get what you need. Why pay thousands in medical school tuition and not utilize every resourse to get the grades that you need to do whatever specialty that you want not the specialty that you think you should "settle for".
If you were sitting at the end of third year with the same performance, you might not have as many options. At this point, there are many things that you can turn around. Don't settle at this point but be proactive. If you do very well from here on out, no specialty is out of your reach. By then, you can choose what you want.
I have seen cases where even with the competitive specialties, desire, interest and turning around a poor early performance has enabled matches. Medical school is a bit like football in that "is isn't over until it is over and there are fourth-quarter comebacks".
njbmd 🙂