MSAR Acceptance Rate vs. School Acceptance

[ns0]

---

Members do not see this ad.

I've been reviewing the MSAR guide and a few things caught my attention. One is that most schools have all really low acceptance rates < 10% easily.

However, it seemed (and granted I could be interpreting the data wrong) that most people >60% of students are accepted to a school, maybe not their first choice.

This seemed to make intuitive sense. If I had 30 medical schools and had 30 students who all applied to all 30 schools with only 1 spot open, each school would have an acceptance or (more accurately) a matriculation rate of 3% even though every student would get into a school.

So i'm wondering if there's a fairly good source for acceptance rates by GPA/MCAT adjusted (normalized) for the amount of multiple student applications.

 

[aSagacious]

http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=838625

 

[aSagacious]

overall med school acceptance rate is not 60% its more like 20%.. in order for 60% of ppl who apply to get in we would need like 20,000 more spots in med schools.

Try 44%, plus the spillover into DO schools which would easily bring it over 50%.

 

[ns0]

Try 44%, plus the spillover into DO schools which would easily bring it over 50%.

The best bet at measuring your odds would be MCAT/GPA against matriculation (since your really can't attend two schools at the same time) rather than acceptance.

Lesson to be learned though: apply to the same amount of schools that all other students are.

 

[aSagacious]

The best bet at measuring your odds would be MCAT/GPA against matriculation (since your really can't attend two schools at the same time) rather than acceptance.

Correct

Lesson to be learned though: apply to the same amount of schools that all other students are.

Yes, and for the record this is ~14

 

[chronicidal]

The best bet at measuring your odds would be MCAT/GPA against matriculation (since your really can't attend two schools at the same time) rather than acceptance.

Lesson to be learned though: apply to the same amount of schools that all other students are.

Acceptance data are relevant to your odds at a specific school. The aggregate acceptance posted above are relevant to your odds of getting into any school.

I am a little skeptical of the effect of a longer list of schools on acceptance. The AAMC has no data published on this matter.

For the residency match, matched applicants have roughly twice as many programs on their rank order list than unmatched applicants. However, medical school application is a somewhat more statistically complicated process -- some applicants get multiple acceptances.

 

[FSUseminoleEM1]

Acceptance data are relevant to your odds at a specific school. The aggregate acceptance posted above are relevant to your odds of getting into any school.

I am a little skeptical of the effect of a longer list of schools on acceptance. The AAMC has no data published on this matter.

For the residency match, matched applicants have roughly twice as many programs on their rank order list than unmatched applicants. However, medical school application is a somewhat more statistically complicated process -- some applicants get multiple acceptances.

Yes, me too, because each school is an "independent event" as we would say in statistics. Your application at one school has no bearing on another (aside from Early-Decision time restrictions). The only common factor is your AMCAS, but even a person's AMCAS primary is interpreted differently among schools dependent upon its mission/focus.

 

[aSagacious]

These data should be used for approximations at best, not predictors. For our use, suffice it so say that increasing the number of schools on one's list increases one's chances and the converse is also true. No reason to read into the data any further.

 

[gbmd15]

I've been reviewing the MSAR guide and a few things caught my attention. One is that most schools have all really low acceptance rates < 10% easily.

However, it seemed (and granted I could be interpreting the data wrong) that most people >60% of students are accepted to a school, maybe not their first choice.

This seemed to make intuitive sense. If I had 30 medical schools and had 30 students who all applied to all 30 schools with only 1 spot open, each school would have an acceptance or (more accurately) a matriculation rate of 3% even though every student would get into a school.

So i'm wondering if there's a fairly good source for acceptance rates by GPA/MCAT adjusted (normalized) for the amount of multiple student applications.

I'm not sure if this is what you are getting at, but schools do "over accept" because obviously not every person is going to say yes to the acceptance offer. For example, 3000 applied, 600 interviewed, 200 accepted, 130 matriculate. So therefore acceptance rate is different than matriculation rate (which would be much smaller) and I believe the MSAR reports matriculants.

As far as I know, the only place where acceptance rates are published is the US News and Review, but you must pay for that feature. If anyone else knows otherwise, I'd love to know where!

 

[HatWobble]

I'm not sure if this is what you are getting at, but schools do "over accept" because obviously not every person is going to say yes to the acceptance offer. For example, 3000 applied, 600 interviewed, 200 accepted, 130 matriculate. So therefore acceptance rate is different than matriculation rate (which would be much smaller) and I believe the MSAR reports matriculants.

As far as I know, the only place where acceptance rates are published is the US News and Review, but you must pay for that feature. If anyone else knows otherwise, I'd love to know where!

Yes, thanks for pointing this out for the OP.

One of the most dramatic instances of this, I think, is in UCLA's in-state and out-of-state figures. Their matriculants are 85% in-state, which would lead you to believe that they are heavily biased in-state. However, their website claims that they do not give in-state preference, and their acceptances are about a 50/50 split in-state vs. out-of-state, according to US News. It's just that their in-state yield is much higher than their out-of-state yield.

 

[xATB]

Does US news consider the number of applications as the number of primaries or the number of secondaries submitted? I think the MSAR considers the number of submitted secondaries, but I might be wrong (don't have the MSAR with me right now). This could definitely lead to some discrepancies.

 

[sector9]

Does US news consider the number of applications as the number of primaries or the number of secondaries submitted? I think the MSAR considers the number of submitted secondaries, but I might be wrong (don't have the MSAR with me right now). This could definitely lead to some discrepancies.

MSAR considers you an applicant if your verified primary application is sent to a school. No idea about US News though

 

[CodeBlu]

MSAR considers you an applicant if your verified primary application is sent to a school. No idea about US News though

I wonder how many people don't complete secondaries... hmmmmm.....

I'd love to get my hands on school specific statistics. Anyone wanna stage a heist?

 

[aSagacious]

I'd love to get my hands on school specific statistics. Anyone wanna stage a heist?

Count me in... it'll be like SDN's Eleven (over course with a sequel to follow)

 

[CodeBlu]

Count me in... it'll be like SDN's Eleven (over course with a sequel to follow)

SDN's Eleven.... I like where this is going.

 

[Whatyousay]

Yes, me too, because each school is an "independent event" as we would say in statistics. Your application at one school has no bearing on another (aside from Early-Decision time restrictions). The only common factor is your AMCAS, but even a person's AMCAS primary is interpreted differently among schools dependent upon its mission/focus.

lolwut.

Even if each school is an independent event, the odds of being rejected from 15 schools versus the odds of being rejected from 1 school still favor applying to a broad range of schools.

p(15) = (Probability of being rejected)^# number schools < p(1) = (Probability of being rejected)

*** This is a gross oversimplification, since the odds of rejection differ between schools, but the point remains the same.

All of this is assuming, of course, that the person applying isn't a derp with a 2.5/20 gunning for JHU, HMS, and Yale.

 

[FSUseminoleEM1]

lolwut.

Even if each school is an independent event, the odds of being rejected from 15 schools versus the odds of being rejected from 1 school still favor applying to a broad range of schools.

p(15) = (Probability of being rejected)^# number schools < p(1) = (Probability of being rejected)

*** This is a gross oversimplification, since the odds of rejection differ between schools, but the point remains the same.

All of this is assuming, of course, that the person applying isn't a derp with a 2.5/20 gunning for JHU, HMS, and Yale.

I said that in regards to getting into one specific school. Not just dipping into the pot hoping to get anything...