NBME overestimate?

[bowlofmushypeas]

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I know people tend to say that NBMEs predict your score to ~within 5 points..how reliable is this honestly? I just got a score that was way above my goal but I really felt like I was second guessing a lot of it. My test is in less than a week and I'm worried that it was a giant fluke. Anyone heard of the worst overestimate on an NBME?

 

[fahimaz7]

I know people tend to say that NBMEs predict your score to ~within 5 points..how reliable is this honestly? I just got a score that was way above my goal but I really felt like I was second guessing a lot of it. My test is in less than a week and I'm worried that it was a giant fluke. Anyone heard of the worst overestimate on an NBME?

It's different for every person. If it predicted a higher score, be happy that it's not predicting a lower score than you want.

 

[samson simpson]

I know people tend to say that NBMEs predict your score to ~within 5 points..how reliable is this honestly? I just got a score that was way above my goal but I really felt like I was second guessing a lot of it. My test is in less than a week and I'm worried that it was a giant fluke. Anyone heard of the worst overestimate on an NBME?

Yeah, I'm in the same boat, and I'd like to see some statistics on this as well.

For those of you that have read these forums a bit, what is a typical range? If I found out for example that the vast majority of people were within 10 points or something, that'd probably put my mind at ease.

Thanks

 

[combat]

real exam has 7 blocks and nbme has 4 blocks, so how can this predict real usmle score? So is NBME harder then usmle?

 

[tco]

The NBMEs are not meant to be predictive exams. I don't know why this concept is so difficult for such intelligent people to understand.

 

[neulite30]

The NBMEs are not meant to be predictive exams. I don't know why this concept is so difficult for such intelligent people to understand.

No need to get snippy. For those that want the stats, 2 articles have been published regarding your concerns. To find them look at the bottom of your NBME practice exam report (they are referenced). Here is a link to the most recent:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20881715

(for the full text, click Lippincott link top right, but log in under your school's website if your school gives you journal access)

Objectively, they are good predictors.

 

[bowlofmushypeas]

Haha, um this was meant to be a light hearted post. Just curious if anyone's heard of a 20 point drop or something from their latest NBME (i.e., within a week of the test) to the real thing.

 

[fahimaz7]

Interesting paper for sure.

 

[neulite30]

Haha, um this was meant to be a light hearted post. Just curious if anyone's heard of a 20 point drop or something from their latest NBME (i.e., within a week of the test) to the real thing.

I was referring to the post by tco. That's why I quoted his/her post in my original one.

 

[bowlofmushypeas]

yeah sorry for the confusion, i meant to quote em too 🙂

 

[hyrule]

All anecdotal, but from what I've seen, the NBMEs seem to predict scores pretty well. So many people maxing out UW (265s), getting lower scores on the NBMEs and getting scores close to that.

 

[MossPoh]

real exam has 7 blocks and nbme has 4 blocks, so how can this predict real usmle score? So is NBME harder then usmle?

Because there are only so many questions one can ask as well. I did two NBME exams side by side and got a 245 and a 256. Out of those, one was a little heavier in biochem and I just made stupid mistakes early on. Either way, that is within 10 of each other, which seems more than reasonable.

 

[combat]

Because there are only so many questions one can ask as well. I did two NBME exams side by side and got a 245 and a 256. Out of those, one was a little heavier in biochem and I just made stupid mistakes early on. Either way, that is within 10 of each other, which seems more than reasonable.

Got it 👍

 

[tco]

Sorry about being a jerk earlier. Blame it on fatigue.

 

[2012mdc]

All anecdotal, but from what I've seen, the NBMEs seem to predict scores pretty well. So many people maxing out UW (265s), getting lower scores on the NBMEs and getting scores close to that.

FWIW I took NBME 7 and UWSA on the same day about 5 days out from my exam and the scores were within 2 points of each other. Same for the real exam.

NBME's can accurately predict your score if you don't make a lot of silly mistakes. The curve can be very unforgiving (95% was a 264 on one of the NBME's. Do that on the real thing and you're at least 270 maybe even 280) but the questions are definitely easier than UWSA or the real thing. If you make a lot of silly mistakes (some of which will be eliminated by increased focus on the day of the real exam) NBME will underestimate your score

UWSA's curve is very friendly so if you make a ton of silly mistakes it may overestimate your score.

 

[Step1Hash]

FWIW I took NBME 7 and UWSA on the same day about 5 days out from my exam and the scores were within 2 points of each other. Same for the real exam.

NBME's can accurately predict your score if you don't make a lot of silly mistakes. The curve can be very unforgiving (95% was a 264 on one of the NBME's. Do that on the real thing and you're at least 270 maybe even 280) but the questions are definitely easier than UWSA or the real thing. If you make a lot of silly mistakes (some of which will be eliminated by increased focus on the day of the real exam) NBME will underestimate your score

UWSA's curve is very friendly so if you make a ton of silly mistakes it may overestimate your score.

I really hope this is right lol

 

[neulite30]

All anecdotal, but from what I've seen, the NBMEs seem to predict scores pretty well. So many people maxing out UW (265s), getting lower scores on the NBMEs and getting scores close to that.

Anecdotal? Everyone, read the PUBLISHED articles on this issue. They are peer reviewed and provide all of the statistical information you will need regarding the NBME and the USMLE.

 

[combat]

FWIW I took NBME 7 and UWSA on the same day about 5 days out from my exam and the scores were within 2 points of each other. Same for the real exam.

NBME's can accurately predict your score if you don't make a lot of silly mistakes. The curve can be very unforgiving (95% was a 264 on one of the NBME's. Do that on the real thing and you're at least 270 maybe even 280) but the questions are definitely easier than UWSA or the real thing. If you make a lot of silly mistakes (some of which will be eliminated by increased focus on the day of the real exam) NBME will underestimate your score

UWSA's curve is very friendly so if you make a ton of silly mistakes it may overestimate your score.

Man you are so ryte, i just did it today uwsa 2 and nbme7 mine is +7points. I just hope it remains same lol, my exam is 7 days i am freaking out already, i feel like i am forgetting stuff and i am hallucinating lol

 

[bowlofmushypeas]

I'm sure NBMEs are approximately accurate for most but I'm just wondering what the worst overprediction you've heard of has been. And if I beat that in a month, I'll post 🙂

 

[2012mdc]

I'm sure NBMEs are approximately accurate for most but I'm just wondering what the worst overprediction you've heard of has been. And if I beat that in a month, I'll post 🙂

I've heard somewhere around 30 pts

 

[dannyboy1]

FWIW I took NBME 7 and UWSA on the same day about 5 days out from my exam and the scores were within 2 points of each other. Same for the real exam.

NBME's can accurately predict your score if you don't make a lot of silly mistakes. The curve can be very unforgiving (95% was a 264 on one of the NBME's. Do that on the real thing and you're at least 270 maybe even 280) but the questions are definitely easier than UWSA or the real thing. If you make a lot of silly mistakes (some of which will be eliminated by increased focus on the day of the real exam) NBME will underestimate your score

UWSA's curve is very friendly so if you make a ton of silly mistakes it may overestimate your score.

how about making stupid mistakes on the real thing due to nerves. i made about 5 or 6 really ******* mistakes on the real thing but was doing really well on the NMBE's

 

[2012mdc]

how about making stupid mistakes on the real thing due to nerves. i made about 5 or 6 really ******* mistakes on the real thing but was doing really well on the NMBE's

I can't imagine 5 or 6 q's changing your score by more than a few points