# of applications expected

[Dr.BadVibes]

---

Members don't see this ad.

Some more stats I was able to get from Temple:

Two years ago when i applied there were 2300 applications. This last cycle that number jumped to 2900 applications.....they are forecasting this next cycle to be 3300 applications!!! 😱

But seeing the chaos that is going on in these forums on AADSAS's first day, that number might go up way more!!! HOLY AADSAS BATMAN!

 

[rocknightmare]

i remember last year when i was applying everybody expected the # of applicants to be over 10k well guess what happened only 9k+ applied. so i wouldn't hold expectations that great.. i think what is happening is that people are become more "gunners" and are applying earlier confusing adcom about how many applicants they will be recieveing.

 

[Dr.BadVibes]

I dunno...but I thought a jump from 2300 to 2900 in just one cycle is insane!

 

[beannaithe]

Man that's ridiculous. I hope my stats are good enough to get in there. It's my top choice. 😛

 

[DDSdude]

From what I have heard, read, seen, watched, dreamed about, hoped for, and the people I have spoken with who know people who know other people, they anticipate around 1.2 million applicants this year. Not too bad if you look at the entire population in the world is much much higher than that.

Seriously though, GOOD LUCK TO ALL this time around!! 👍 😀

 

[gabrielmeraz]

I have a couple of my friends who will be applying this semester and both of them have a 3.6+ GPAs. Man! It will be competitive this time around

 

[ryche22]

how big is temple's D1 class around?

 

[Dr.BadVibes]

how big is temple's D1 class around?

125

 

[ianwright]

Something tells me that application to dental school will become more competitive than medical school in the near future.

I actually think that we are begining to see that transision take place now! Dental school admission will probably be as competitive as medical school admission.

What do you guys think?

Those of you applying to dental school realize the advantages of dentistry over medicine - right? I feel that medical students are catching on - and soon dentistry will loose its 'mojo'.

Just my theory - what do you guys think?

 

[demonicr]

It could also be the fact that more people are applying to temple, or applying to more schools, not necassary that more students are actually applying. the 2005 cycle, people are jumping to conclusion that the application number will go above 10000, but in actuality it just went over 9000. i think the application number are not increasing by that much, i think people are applying to more schools which gives people the impression that a lot more students are applying.

 

[ianwright]

It could also be the fact that more people are applying to temple, or applying to more schools, not necassary that more students are actually applying. the 2005 cycle, people are jumping to conclusion that the application number will go above 10000, but in actuality it just went over 9000. i think the application number are not increasing by that much, i think people are applying to more schools which gives people the impression that more students are applying.

VERY GOOD INSIGHT !!! 🙂

 

[Rezdawg]

It could also be the fact that more people are applying to temple, or applying to more schools, not necassary that more students are actually applying. the 2005 cycle, people are jumping to conclusion that the application number will go above 10000, but in actuality it just went over 9000. i think the application number are not increasing by that much, i think people are applying to more schools which gives people the impression that more students are applying.

Applications still went up from the previous year. And they will go up again for this cycle. Maybe the jump isnt as great, but applications are rising.

 

[ianwright]

why is everyone concerned about temple - what do you guys think about the overall number of students applying to dental school? Definately on the rise. The question is by how much though. 4500 get in - 9000 apply. I can live with a 50-50. What about eveyone else?

 

[mochafreak]

Not to freak everyone out, but I thought that last year's cycle was technically more competitive than med school with less than 50% being accepted. I could be wrong though.

 

[demonicr]

Applications still went up from the previous year. And they will go up again for this cycle. Maybe the jump isnt as great, but applications are rising.

yes, the total number of applications are obvious on the rise, but from what i can see, the overall applications has rise less than 10%, but the number of applicants per school has increased by ~25%, said by some schools. so this gives me the impression that students are applying to more schools rather than more a lot more stundets are applying. by a 20% jump in number of applicants at temple, does not eqivalent to a 20% jump in the total number of AADSAS applicants.

 

[jk5177]

After reading through these messages in the thread, I came to the realization that it is all fluff air, and that I learned nothing other than people speculating how many applicants there will be this year. Great. I suppose this is social science and also why I left it in the first place.

 

[2pac]

You guys are wasting your time thinking about these things. Who cares about the pool of applicants? The only thing u should be worried about is yourself and ur credentials. 👍

 

[nothen2do]

why is everyone concerned about temple - what do you guys think about the overall number of students applying to dental school? Definately on the rise. The question is by how much though. 4500 get in - 9000 apply. I can live with a 50-50. What about eveyone else?

thats not how it works. If you apply to every single school, then thats your chances (of course depending on your stats). Look at the individual school stats. UCSF had in '04 1248 applicants for 82 spots, something like 130 students were accepted I believe. Thats a 10% acceptance rate, so the 50-50 idea is a distortion of the fact.

 

[ianwright]

thats not how it works. If you apply to every single school, then thats your chances (of course depending on your stats). Look at the individual school stats. UCSF had in '04 1248 applicants for 82 spots, something like 130 students were accepted I believe. Thats a 10% acceptance rate, so the 50-50 idea is a distortion of the fact.

Are you kidding me? I have never been direct on this forum to anyone, on the contrary, I've been understanding. But I believe you have your facts absolutely wrong.

Let me explain:

1248 applicants for 82 spots - those who didn't make it into this particular school probably got accepted somewhere else.

Lay man terms:

There are ten buses. Each bus fills 50 people. Therefore there are a total of 500 seat available.

IF YOU DID NOT CATCH ON: BUSES = dental schools PEOPLE= students

Say there are 1000 People total. Each person applies for a ticket to ride each of the ten buses. Therefore each bus will recieve 1000 reservations.

Reservations = applications

HOWEVER - common sense tells you that 50% (500/1000) of the People will get a seat on a bus.

Seat = acceptance.

HOW WAS THAT?

 

[beannaithe]

Okay...anyway...back to Temple. 😛

Out all of the people applied who got offered seats?

Thanks! 😀

 

[ianwright]

Okay...anyway...back to Temple. 😛

Out all of the people applied who got offered seats?

Thanks! 😀

are we still talking about temple?

 

[aceking]

Are you kidding me? I have never been direct on this forum to anyone, on the contrary, I've been understanding. But I believe you have your facts absolutely wrong.

Let me explain:

1248 applicants for 82 spots - those who didn't make it into this particular school probably got accepted somewhere else.

Lay man terms:

There are ten buses. Each bus fills 50 people. Therefore there are a total of 500 seat available.

IF YOU DID NOT CATCH ON: BUSES = dental schools PEOPLE= students

Say there are 1000 People total. Each person applies for a ticket to ride each of the ten buses. Therefore each bus will recieve 1000 reservations.

Reservations = applications

HOWEVER - common sense tells you that 50% (500/1000) of the People will get a seat on a bus.

Seat = acceptance.

HOW WAS THAT?

haha
are u serious?
you think all those 4000 spots from private schools?? Only probably little over half of the seats are given a chance to all applicants and then rest are just public schools that only apply to a couple hundred local students for each state of regional(e.g. UW, UCLA, UCSF, Neb, Ill, Oreg, etc) and just few public schools that accept a good amount of out of state students(e.g. Temple).
So cut the crap about it...
taking about buses and tickets.
u think this is like poker or something taking about it like a coin flip?
peace bro

 

[Bullfan16]

haha
are u serious?
you think all those 4000 spots from private schools?? Only probably little over half of the seats are given a chance to all applicants and then rest are just public schools that only apply to a couple hundred local students for each state of regional(e.g. UW, UCLA, UCSF, Neb, Ill, Oreg, etc) and just few public schools that accept a good amount of out of state students(e.g. Temple).
So cut the crap about it...
taking about buses and tickets.
u think this is like poker or something taking about it like a coin flip?
peace bro

Well said...thing is yeah there are 4500 seats but you have to take into account the in state/out of state issue. If any of those people applied to a school that didnt accept any out of staters....then iamwright is clearly wrong. While I dont think the actual ratio is 50% or 10%, it is probably somewhere closer to 30% if you account for students who apply to traditionally in state-admissions oriented schools. Someone from CA who applies to Colorado has no chance to get in just like anyone who applies to UIC who is not from IL HAS NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER TO GET IN (AT ALL)! Point is, you have to take these schools into consideration and cant assume every school will admit every person from any geographic location in the country. Really, there are approximately 10-15 privates and the rest public (this is an assumption)...so the odds are stacked against those who have 0-1 dental school in their state (except for the IDEP/WICHE people and certain schools who hold seats for states that dont have a dental school). The admissions game is more like a crapshoot than any other form of gambling out there....

 

[Rezdawg]

I think you guys are getting too technical here. The original model was breaking down the process in the most simplest of terms. Yes, if you look at each individual school or each individual applicant, the model fails. However, the bottom line is that there is approximately 1 spot for every 2 applicants. Thats the fact. The bus scenario revolves around this fact.

In other words, half of the people who apply to dental school will begin in the fall. The other half will go home empty handed. The original scenario by ianwright shows this.

 

[Dr.Smiley-OR]

Are you kidding me? I have never been direct on this forum to anyone, on the contrary, I've been understanding. But I believe you have your facts absolutely wrong.

Let me explain:

1248 applicants for 82 spots - those who didn't make it into this particular school probably got accepted somewhere else.

Lay man terms:

There are ten buses. Each bus fills 50 people. Therefore there are a total of 500 seat available.

IF YOU DID NOT CATCH ON: BUSES = dental schools PEOPLE= students

Say there are 1000 People total. Each person applies for a ticket to ride each of the ten buses. Therefore each bus will recieve 1000 reservations.

Reservations = applications

HOWEVER - common sense tells you that 50% (500/1000) of the People will get a seat on a bus.

Seat = acceptance.

HOW WAS THAT?

Your explanation is contradicting itself and support other's points. Your statement "if each person applies for a ticket to ride each of the ten buses" could be translated to "if each person apply to AADSAS for a 1 ticket to a dental school and AADSAS will send the person' s application to all dental schools available (to all 10 BUS available in your case)." You are assuming that by "applying" (or buying a ticket) you have the access to all dental schools (to all the bus) here. That is not true! Rarely anyone will apply to all 54 schools. Therefore, 50/50 chance is not at all correct.
If your stat (LOR, GPA, DAT, Essays, etc.....all combined) is good, you should have a high chance of getting in. If your stat is low, you have lower chance. That is the obvious fact.
Another way to look at this percentage is assume you are a good candidate, and you will get into a dental school, then the formula would be:

[# of schools applied / 54 ] x [4,500 available / total # of applicants] x 100 = X %

This will tell you the percentage you will get into at least ONE dental school.

Two factors are used to determine this percentage:
1) your probability to get into just 1 school if you are the only one apply and the school will either say yes or no to you (they do not need to accept because they have to fill up their class).
1) your probability to get into a dental school when compared to positions available/people applied.

Thus for me:
5/54 x 4,500/9000 = 4.6% I will get into at least 1 dental school
This percentage is the minimal percentage.

54/54 x 4500/9000= 50% I will get into at least 1 dental school
This percentage is the maximal percentage.

Therefore my chance of getting into a dental school is between 4.6% to 50%.

 

[jk5177]

[# of schools applied / 54 ] x [4,500 available / total # of applicants] x 100 = X %

This will tell you the percentage you will get into at least ONE dental school.

Two factors are used to determine this percentage:
1) your probability to get into just 1 school if you are the only one apply and the school will either say yes or no to you (they do not need to accept because they have to fill up their class).
1) your probability to get into a dental school when compared to positions available/people applied.

Thus for me:
5/54 x 4,500/9000 = 4.6% I will get into at least 1 dental school
This percentage is the minimal percentage.

54/54 x 4500/9000= 50% I will get into at least 1 dental school
This percentage is the maximal percentage.

Therefore my chance of getting into a dental school is between 4.6% to 50%.

Also, the 4,500 seat aren't all reserved for you. Half of them are for woman and the other half for man, so shouldn't it be 2250/9000 as oppose to 4500?

 

[netsn06]

Also, the 4,500 seat aren't all reserved for you. Half of them are for woman and the other half for man, so shouldn't it be 2250/9000 as oppose to 4500?

i think this topic is getting a bit hackneyed, as i keep viewing this thread in hopes of finding insightful facts on applicant numbers.

i think these are the overall conclusions we're drawing:
-there are no true odds for acceptance, since every applicant's odds depends on the quality of the applicant, time of application, and urm status.
-generically, there is ~50% chance of getting in if you do look at purely numbers (# students accepted/# students applying).

all these other arguments dont make much sense. ie:
-"half for women, half for men means 2250/9000." this doesnt take into account there are only about half men applicants as well, so it goes back down to 2250/4500.
-"state programs take mainly in-state residents, so that scews all the numbers." arent the in-state applicants factored into the 9000 total applicant pool? you can account for this "in-state phenomena," couple it w/ "regular applicants" applying to private schools and "regular applicants" applying to out-of-state schools where they have very little chance, and the ultimate numbers result in 4500 of 9000 getting in.
-"the highest probability of getting in is 50%, but is most likely lower because no one applies to all the schools." sure many people's chances range from 4-50%. but then again some people get into 9 of 10 schools as well. so in the end it all balances out to the statistic (fact) of 4500 of 9000 get in.

we all know that stat is meaningless because we're all different and have vastly varied chances, but whichever way we look at it those are the numbers.

hopefully we can get back to some interesting info again rather than a lot of illogical speculation. and hopefully i dont offend anyone w/ my quick-to-the-keyboard comments. it's not personal.

 

[Tzips]

Not to freak everyone out, but I thought that last year's cycle was technically more competitive than med school with less than 50% being accepted. I could be wrong though.

Isn't the number for med schools more like 1/10, in tems of (total # applicants)/(total # seats)? In any case, I still consider 1/2 (or thereabouts) very nice, indeed.