Oversaturation in the field

[HawkJ2010]

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According to Wikipedia (the most credible site ever) & CAPTE there are approximately 210 accredited DPT programs in the US that produce roughly 26,000 students a year.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics reports that there will be around 77,500 new jobs by the end of 2020.

My math may be off but is it safe to say that the career field of Physical Therapy will become extremely over-saturated within the next 5 years? How does this play into your decisions of pursuing PT?

I don't know where ya'll are from but it does seem like everyone and their mothers are enrolling in Exercise Science, Biomechanics, and Kinesthesiology Bachelor's programs, with probable hopes of entering a DPT program. Thoughts?

Thank you.

 

[Azimuthal]

Too many variables to know for certain. Although there are predicted figures for new jobs, existing ones must be replaced also. Your prediction is in Figure 3 in the link below. However, there are also many other scenarios.

http://www.apta.org/WorkforceData/ModelDescriptionFigures/

For a pre-dental student, you sure have broad concerns.

 

[GTT4DPT]

there are approximately 210 accredited DPT programs in the US that produce roughly 26,000 students a year.

If this is true, than that means that each school's graduating class averages 124 students, which seems off (26,000/210 = 123.8). That number might refer to total DPT students. So spread across three years, that's an average of 41 per graduating class. So now we're talking about 8,700 new DPTs each year.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics reports that there will be around 77,500 new jobs by the end of 2020.

My math may be off but is it safe to say that the career field of Physical Therapy will become extremely over-saturated within the next 5 years? How does this play into your decisions of pursuing PT?

Assuming no current PTs leave the workforce and 8,700 new DPTs each year, it'll take 9 years to fill the 77,500 new jobs. Depending on when those projections were made, that seems to fit the anticipated needs quite well.

If a bunch of new programs were getting accredited, I could see that being a cause for concern, but I haven't heard about that being an issue. The barriers to entry seem to be getting higher and higher: Time, expense, competitiveness. As bad as that is when we're on the outside, it's a sign of a profession on the rise (I guess those things and the low unemployment rate....lots of people bent over backwards to become lawyers and ended up getting a JD and no job).

But then I remember being in college in the late '90s. Everyone was going to become a programmer and work somewhere that had free beer in the refrigerator. 4 years and an economic bubble later, everything had changed. So who knows? At the very least, it'll be difficult to outsource physical therapy jobs abroad.

 

[djb051]

I am glad you brought this up, I was thinking about this the other day. Like someone mentioned above though, there are a lot of variables, and it is hard to predict what will happen in the future for PT.
I was talking to a PT about this though, and they were also telling me how there were many PTs in the 1990's and not as much demand.

 

[HawkJ2010]

If this is true, than that means that each school's graduating class averages 124 students, which seems off (26,000/210 = 123.8). That number might refer to total DPT students. So spread across three years, that's an average of 41 per graduating class. So now we're talking about 8,700 new DPTs each year.

Assuming no current PTs leave the workforce and 8,700 new DPTs each year, it'll take 9 years to fill the 77,500 new jobs. Depending on when those projections were made, that seems to fit the anticipated needs quite well.

If a bunch of new programs were getting accredited, I could see that being a cause for concern, but I haven't heard about that being an issue. The barriers to entry seem to be getting higher and higher: Time, expense, competitiveness. As bad as that is when we're on the outside, it's a sign of a profession on the rise (I guess those things and the low unemployment rate....lots of people bent over backwards to become lawyers and ended up getting a JD and no job).

But then I remember being in college in the late '90s. Everyone was going to become a programmer and work somewhere that had free beer in the refrigerator. 4 years and an economic bubble later, everything had changed. So who knows? At the very least, it'll be difficult to outsource physical therapy jobs abroad.

Nice to see that my math was off, good thing I'm not going into accounting! Haha. I do agree with you that the entrance requirements are becoming more competitive and extensive over the years. However, will it still be worth it if the rate continues? I have seen a lot of talk on this forum that individuals from the past would have pursued a different route if DPT was required back when they were in school.

For a pre-dental student, you sure have broad concerns.

I sure do. I have my own issues to deal with in the Dental realm. My fiancee, on the other hand, is heavily considering PT vs. OT as a career.

A final question (that is sort of off topic). My fiancee had just finished her Bachelor's in English (not much science background) and is going back to school in the fall to meet the requirements for admission into an OT/PT graduate school. She feels there is better job security in the healthcare field, as did I. If she has an average GPA (I think 3.5+), GRE score, and the necessary shadowing time will a program be likely to interview/accept her if she is taking the Physics, A&P, and Chemistry requirements this upcoming year? Seeing as how she has a degree and is taking these classes to finish up I wonder if she should apply this year or what until next (although there will be a gap year).

Thanks.

 

[GMA2013]

You can only have at the most 3 per reqs to do prior to applying so she most likely will need to wait till next year

 

[GTT4DPT]

However, will it still be worth it if the rate continues? I have seen a lot of talk on this forum that individuals from the past would have pursued a different route if DPT was required back when they were in school.

Yeah, it's madness. Of the handful of PTs that I've gotten to know well, the ones who have all their debt paid off love their jobs. For those who are still cutting a check every month to pay off loans from years ago...I think there's much more ambivalence.

Seeing as how she has a degree and is taking these classes to finish up I wonder if she should apply this year or what until next (although there will be a gap year).

I'm in a similar situation. I'll have a few pre-req's hanging in the Spring of 2013. I emailed schools, gave them my game plan for pre-reqs and asked if they saw any problems with it. One school made it clear that given when they make decisions, I wouldn't really have enough of my grades in to get a thumbs up. They suggested I was applying a year too early.

Most of the others though were more laid back and indicated that it wouldn't be a problem. The specific schedule for decision making (selecting interviewees, conducting interviews, early acceptance and all that) seems different for each school. It might be worth reaching out to programs individually with the anticipated course schedule to get their assessment.

 

[HawkJ2010]

Yeah, it's madness. Of the handful of PTs that I've gotten to know well, the ones who have all their debt paid off love their jobs. For those who are still cutting a check every month to pay off loans from years ago...I think there's much more ambivalence.

I'm in a similar situation. I'll have a few pre-req's hanging in the Spring of 2013. I emailed schools, gave them my game plan for pre-reqs and asked if they saw any problems with it. One school made it clear that given when they make decisions, I wouldn't really have enough of my grades in to get a thumbs up. They suggested I was applying a year too early.

Most of the others though were more laid back and indicated that it wouldn't be a problem. The specific schedule for decision making (selecting interviewees, conducting interviews, early acceptance and all that) seems different for each school. It might be worth reaching out to programs individually with the anticipated course schedule to get their assessment.

I hope they still enjoy the career that they have ahead of them. One of the reasons my fiancee had contemplated OT over PT is that the tuition is cheaper (due to the need for a Master's Degree), even though there isn't an incredibly large orthopedic/sports rehab aspect in PT.

Do you mind me asking which courses you have left to take this year? Just curious to see where you compare with the Miss.

Thanks.

 

[GTT4DPT]

Do you mind me asking which courses you have left to take this year? Just curious to see where you compare with the Miss.

I just finished up a summer time Chem 1 course. In the Fall I'll be taking Chem 2, Physics 1 and Anatomy. In the Spring it'll be Physics 2, Physiology, and an upper division Medical Physiology course online.

 

[HawkJ2010]

Interesting, my fiancee will be taking the same the same exact courses this upcoming year except that she has yet to start Chem 1. That may put you a tad bit ahead of the curve. Also, it seems as though your college is on the semester system whereas she will be attending a community college on the quarter system. Therefore when application time rolls around she will most likely have completed Chem 1, A&P 1, Physics 1, and have the second and third course remaining.

 

[Merlin777]

My friend, who is a pharmacist from India currently trying to get his license in the USA, and working as a Pharm. assistant, says that if Obamacare passes then there will be much greater demand for all sorts of medical care INCLUDING PHYSICAL THERAPY.

What does everyone think about this claim?

 

[Azimuthal]

My friend, who is a pharmacist from India currently trying to get his license in the USA, and working as a Pharm. assistant, says that if Obamacare passes then there will be much greater demand for all sorts of medical care INCLUDING PHYSICAL THERAPY.

What does everyone think about this claim?

I think it's more complicated than that. Law of Supply and Demand 2 [second part of your friend's approach] The shift of demand changes due to extension of care. This could [will] mean that the government will then start reducing Medicare reimbursement rates to try and control a bloated system. A rate in which insurance companies have historically followed. This potentially means that you will need to see 14 patients a day, whereas 10 patients pre-reform would have garnered the same reimbursement. Yes, demand will increase. But will it be worth it for students to continue pursuing an profession that is usually attached to high-student loans? Or will this be another barrier of entry to increase the demand of a shortage of PTs, thus increasing salaries? No one knows.

Just my 0.02. Too many variables to know for sure and the think tanks have mostly kept their mouths shut.

 

[apod823]

So what happens in 2025? I imagine we will still be pumping out thousands of DPTs and growth can't possibly be sustained that this level right?