Sorry to resurrect this topic. I was looking at the MAVERICK trial and the question popped up:
Why do we need a randomized trial for this question as a first step?
I fully understand that randomized trials are the best way to prove or disprove something, but the experimental arm has never been properly examined in a non-randomized manner. The experimental arm (omission of PCI) is therapy deescalation, s.o.c. is to deliver PCI in LD-SCLC.
There are however a number of questions that are still open, for instance what is the rate of isolated brain recurrence in patients who do not receive PCI and have PR/CR at after CRT for LD-SCLC? How many of these patients reccur with one lesion vs. multiple lesions? What is the optimal regime to observe those patients with MRI of the brain (MRI every 3 or 6 months or wait for symptoms?).
We have done single-arm deescalation trials before, think of the single arm trials testing no adjuvant RT in DCIS of the breast, for instance
this one.
Wouldn't it have been wiser to first conduct a Phase-II single-arm trial testing MRI-surveillance instead of PCI in LD-SCLC with PR/CR after CRT?
We know that 25-35% of all LD-SCLC are disease-free and alive at 5 years with Turrisi-fractionation full CRT + PCI (depends on which graph you look - Turrisi vs. CONVERT and there's certainly the effect of stage migration that made CONVERT results look better).
Now let's do that regime, but simply drop the PCI.
Imagine such a trial would show a 20+% rate of isolated brain recurrence. I couldn't find data for isolated brain recurrence following PCI for LD-SCLC, but I presume it's low, maybe even <5%.
Woulnd't that be enough to "bury" a randomized trial trying to prove non-inferiority of deferring PCI? I don't think anyone believes you can still "rescue" those excessive 15+% patients recurring with brain mets using SRS +/- WBRT. You may be able to salvage some, but in the end half of those patients who didn't get PCI and recurred in the brain are going to die because of those brain mets, which basically means the test regime would result in at least 7% worse survival than s.o.c.
I am hearing some of you saying it's tough to randomize patients in MAVERICK, so perhaps this could have been an interesting approach.
It would definetely need less patients and accrual would be easier (since many patients, as it appears, do not want PCI anyhow!).
"Oh, you do not want PCI? That's great, we have just the right trial for you! I can guarantee you, you are not getting PCI."
And sure, if the rate of isolated brain recurrence would be very low (<10%) without PCI, then you don't even need the randomized trial. You can make the point that PCI shouldn't be done anymore, since few patients reccur anyhow and by salvaging them, the number-needed-to-treat with PCI is just to high to justify it.
The only "problem" would arise if the rate of isolated brain recurrence without PCI was somewhere around 15%, you would then probably need a randomized trial to prove non-inferiority.
I fear the MAVERICK trial may be rushing things a bit...