Percentage of applicants getting their #1?

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snowkhat said:
I was wondering if anyone has any accurate data on how many or what percentage of applicants that get their number one match rank?
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No simple answer to that question. Data is published based on US MDs vs everyone else.

http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2009v3.pdf

That will break down 2009 results based on specialty, number of places ranked (and if they matched or not), Step scores, Research etc.

If you ranked only 1 program as a US MD, you had just shy of an 85% chance of matching. About a 30% for everyone else.

Hope that's helpful. We are all wondering. But even stats don't tell the whole story.
 
rss56 said:
No simple answer to that question. Data is published based on US MDs vs everyone else.

http://www.nrmp.org/data/chartingoutcomes2009v3.pdf

That will break down 2009 results based on specialty, number of places ranked (and if they matched or not), Step scores, Research etc.

If you ranked only 1 program as a US MD, you had just shy of an 85% chance of matching. About a 30% for everyone else.

Hope that's helpful. We are all wondering. But even stats don't tell the whole story.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm pretty familiar with charting outcomes. But it doesn't have information regarding how many folks got their #1 pick.
 
snowkhat said:
I was wondering if anyone has any accurate data on how many or what percentage of applicants that get their number one match rank?
Click to expand...

This is not helpful information. Suppose someone gave you the following statistic: "98% of applicants get into their #1 choice residency program." If you thought to yourself, whew at least I know I have a good shot at getting into my #1 rank, then you would be wrong to think so. Such a statistic is really meaningless. People only rank the programs where they interviewed at, and they only interview the programs where they applied, and they only apply to the programs where they think they have a shot at getting in (unless they have bad career counseling or are willing to throw away money on a roll of the dice).

-AT.
 
atsai3 said:
This is not helpful information. Suppose someone gave you the following statistic: "98% of applicants get into their #1 choice residency program." If you thought to yourself, whew at least I know I have a good shot at getting into my #1 rank, then you would be wrong to think so. Such a statistic is really meaningless. People only rank the programs where they interviewed at, and they only interview the programs where they applied, and they only apply to the programs where they think they have a shot at getting in (unless they have bad career counseling or are willing to throw away money on a roll of the dice).

-AT.
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It may be somewhat more than not helpful considering he/she has already applied and interviewed and probably has a better idea how it may or may not apply to his/her situation.
 
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64%.

But you should know that 42% of all statistics are pulled out of thin air. 😉

I have no idea, and really the NRMP would be the only one with this info. If it's not readily available on their site, it's probably not out there.
 
Not really a comprehensive answer to your question, but from my 2009 match poll, of those who responded (41), 61% got their top choice.
 
snowkhat said:
How many people, after interviewing and submitting their ROL get their #1?
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The answer is probably more meaningful if you identify what your #1 pick is.

The percentage of people who got their #1 is pretty low if their #1 was Penn.
The percentage of people who got their #1 is pretty high if their #1 was Backwater State Community Health.
 
I think this is a good question. It gives you a strong idea of who got exactly what they wanted. Who cares if it was Penn or Backwater State, if you ranked it number one, it was for a reason, and I think it would be an interesting stat to know.

And thanks for the poll result. I know its a small sample size but 83% of people got one of their top 3 choice. That's amazing.
 
zac16125 said:
I think this is a good question. It gives you a strong idea of who got exactly what they wanted. Who cares if it was Penn or Backwater State, if you ranked it number one, it was for a reason, and I think it would be an interesting stat to know.

And thanks for the poll result. I know its a small sample size but 83% of people got one of their top 3 choice. That's amazing.
Click to expand...

Just keep in mind that there is a selection bias at work.
Top 3 on your ROL is after you've been coached by faculty on where to apply where you'll have a chance, followed by where you interviewed (you're not ranking places you didn't get an interview).
 
nitemagi said:
Just keep in mind that there is a selection bias at work.
Top 3 on your ROL is after you've been coached by faculty on where to apply where you'll have a chance, followed by where you interviewed (you're not ranking places you didn't get an interview).
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Which is excellent in my case since most the places I'm eyeballing are at less-competitive programs in flyover country.
 
nitemagi said:
Just keep in mind that there is a selection bias at work.
Top 3 on your ROL is after you've been coached by faculty on where to apply where you'll have a chance, followed by where you interviewed (you're not ranking places you didn't get an interview).
Click to expand...

I know these things, but its still impressive because you've got to figure that if people do have their "reach" programs they are almost certainly going to rank them in the top 3, otherwise why have reach programs. Its just encouraging to see people landing where they want to be.

I think the match is a really effective system in a lot of different ways.
 
zac16125 said:
I think this is a good question. It gives you a strong idea of who got exactly what they wanted. Who cares if it was Penn or Backwater State, if you ranked it number one, it was for a reason, and I think it would be an interesting stat to know.

And thanks for the poll result. I know its a small sample size but 83% of people got one of their top 3 choice. That's amazing.
Click to expand...

Then you should rank Backwater State #1. Then the probability of your getting your first choice will be close to 100%.

-AT.
 
notdeadyet said:
The answer is probably more meaningful if you identify what your #1 pick is.

The percentage of people who got their #1 is pretty low if their #1 was Penn.
The percentage of people who got their #1 is pretty high if their #1 was Backwater State Community Health.
Click to expand...

Seen the other way: 100% of residents at Penn got their #1. Or at least that's what they told me when I was there. 😉
 
nitemagi said:
Just keep in mind that there is a selection bias at work.
Top 3 on your ROL is after you've been coached by faculty on where to apply where you'll have a chance, followed by where you interviewed (you're not ranking places you didn't get an interview).
Click to expand...

You're assuming we really get help with the original choice of places to apply. I didn't . . . not much, anyway. Nobody had a clue where I had a chance in psychiatry because most of the psychiatrists here trained here and didn't know much about the residency selection process elsewhere. I was told to talk to our PD here about this but because I wanted a chance here, I didn't really want to discuss with him all the other east coast programs I was applying to.

As far as where you got interviews: yes, I agree, that's probably the bottleneck that makes "56% get their first choice" a questionable statistic. If my first choice was really program X, and program X didn't offer me an interview, my real preferences wouldn't be reflected in my match list.
 
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atsai3 said:
Then you should rank Backwater State #1. Then the probability of your getting your first choice will be close to 100%.

-AT.
Click to expand...

I think you're missing my point.
 
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