Predictability of NBMEs

[YeahNoMind]

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I've pondered for a really long time the reason why NBMEs are for the most part, great predictors of a score [ok plus or minus 5-7 points, don't freak out]

I'm writing the real deal in 5 weeks, and I know how tired my brain gets in the last 75 questions of an NBME. The last 10-15 questions I'm physically and mentally tired.

This may just be my lack of stamina, compared to other test takers, but the real deal is 132 questions longer than any NBME. I'm sure there are more joke easy questions when you factor in that many more questions but I guess I just want to understand
HOW an exam so much shorter than the real deal can be such an accurate predictor for so many people.

Me so far

Uwsa: 188 [online] 12 weeks out

Nbme 1: 227 [offline]

Nbme 2: 239 [offline]

Nbme 3: 244 [offline]

Free 138: 86%

Uworld: 69%

Nbme 13: 234 (5.5 weeks out)

 

[tantacles]

I've pondered for a really long time the reason why NBMEs are for the most part, great predictors of a score [ok plus or minus 5-7 points, don't freak out]

I'm writing the real deal in 5 weeks, and I know how tired my brain gets in the last 75 questions of an NBME. The last 10-15 questions I'm physically and mentally tired.

This may just be my lack of stamina, compared to other test takers, but the real deal is 132 questions longer than any NBME. I'm sure there are more joke easy questions when you factor in that many more questions but I guess I just want to understand
HOW an exam so much shorter than the real deal can be such an accurate predictor for so many people.

Me so far

Uwsa: 188 [online] 12 weeks out

Nbme 1: 227 [offline]

Nbme 2: 239 [offline]

Nbme 3: 244 [offline]

Free 138: 86%

Uworld: 69%

Nbme 13: 234 (5.5 weeks out)

It can be a good predictor because it's likely that mental fatigue, like board scores, follows an approximately normal distribution. And what I mean by that is that since everyone has the same extension in exam time after taking an NBME, mental fatigue has little effect on your score compared to that of an NBME.

 

[YeahNoMind]

It can be a good predictor because it's likely that mental fatigue, like board scores, follows an approximately normal distribution. And what I mean by that is that since everyone has the same extension in exam time after taking an NBME, mental fatigue has little effect on your score compared to that of an NBME.

That's Interesting. I guess one of the traits of a "good test taker" would be the ability to ward off fatigue in those last 6th and 7th blocks.

 

[J ROD]

Best we got. I know the fatigue factor is real but it is real for all of us. I guess you could work on like 4 blocks straight to build endurance. But, I think eye and brain fatigue would still kick in. Might help some.

The main thing to me is to use your breaks wisely. Use them more towards the end. So, do not load up on fluids before you start...lol.

 

[YeahNoMind]

There was a guy on this thread a few months ago who used to do 8 blocks of questions a day to build up stamina. Think about that man, 8 blocks.
I think he did well, but can you say masochism?
Not gonna lie though, if that's what it took to join the 255-260 mile high club
I'd do it.

 

[kween]

i think the adrenaline will keep you going on the real deal as well.
i feel like we are just a tad bit chilled/relaxed with nbmes as opposed to at a prometric center

 

[Donald Juan]

Do you miss more questions in the end? I find that I start feeling fatigued/just ready to get it over with near the end of an NBME, but I don't do any worse. That goes the same for doing a block of a qbank late at night after studying all day. I feel like I'm probably not thinking through things enough and zoning out more, but my scores don't go down at all.

 

[CherryRedDracul]

Stock up on caffeine on the real thing if you need to. A lunchtime Red Bull had me wide awake to finish the last few blocks with time to spare. I had the energy to do a few more blocks, but my mind was trashed by mind****ery at the end of it. Believe me, although I am pretty good at standardized tests, I was worried about the fatigue, too, but if you time your breaks wisely and get a caffeine boost as needed, the adrenaline will carry you through.

But don't overdo the caffeine or you'll get too jittery to focus. Gotta have that balance.

 

[YeahNoMind]

Do you miss more questions in the end? I find that I start feeling fatigued/just ready to get it over with near the end of an NBME, but I don't do any worse. That goes the same for doing a block of a qbank late at night after studying all day. I feel like I'm probably not thinking through things enough and zoning out more, but my scores don't go down at all.

I don't do worse at the end necessarily, but after the first 110 questions my ability to keep mentally clear starts going downhill slowly, then ridiculously fast.

I never do questions at night man. I tried that when I was doing uworld. I thought could get 4-4.5 blocks done in a day by doing half in the morning and half before bed. The difference in performance was staggering. I'd be in the 65-73% range in the morning, and get around 45% at night. I stopped doing that after a few days of feeling really dumb.

Also, after an NBME, even if it went well, I'm shot for the rest of the day. I really cannot study anything

I'll probably watch a funny movie, or some documentary on Vice