Probability of matching into your top choice (residency)

[yellowcocopuffs]

I have heard stats from various people that say, in peds you will "most likely" match into one of your top 4 choices. Anyone else hear something similar? Or know anything about such statistics? Is this all just a saying, not much evidence to hack it up?

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[BB8m8]

http://www.nrmp.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Main-Match-Results-and-Data-2015_final.pdf

 

[Omar Little]

Hey, I'm in the same position you are and I don't have any special insight into this, but I think it varies so much that you won't really get a good answer. The numbers above are reassuring, I guess, but there are just too many variables. Some variables I can think of are:

-How good of an interviewer you are and your social skills
-The quality or desirability of the program itself -- my guess is that if your top 4 are all highly competitive and desirable programs it will make it harder to match there. Conversely, might be easier to hit your #1 if it is a smaller, less known program
-The number of interview invites a program grants -- a program that interviews a ton of people might make it harder for you to get your #1 choice
-Specific program directives -- are they looking for a 'diverse' class, lots of phds, geographic variability

I think the biggest factors is probably #1 and thankfully the one you could have controlled the most. I know its really stressful, but there's nothing we can do about it anymore. Speaking personally, my top 4 seem to be liked by many other people on the interview trail, so I'm not holding my breath and would be really surprised if I matched in my top 4

As for the stress, I'm trying to remember why I wanted to be a pediatrician in the first place (remember, its not about where you train, but what kind of doctor you are). this is not working so I'm drinking a lot of beer, watching netflix, spending way too much time on sdn, and drinking more beer.

 

[pedzboom]

I think it truly largely depends on how high/low you shoot. When the NRMP says that 50% get their top choice.... their have to be a lot of people nationally that are simply safely staying at their home institution and ranking it #1 (in all kinds of specialties).

Although it is telling that still, a lot of people shooting for the stars still get top 4. Keep in mind that this is a MATCH. Unfortunately it is getting more competitive and starting to resemble more like med school/grad school apps - but it is still largely a system where there are ton of quality spots, and assuming that competitive applicants differ in their preferences... its like shuffling a deck of cards and putting everyone where they want to be. With that being said, I truly wonder if programs do vary in their competitiveness from year to year - i.e. this was the year EVERYONE wanted peds program xyz and it totally threw off the balance of things. It would be fascinating if a program xyz normally dips down to ~150 on their ROL but one anomalous year only dipped down to #60. In peds and IM - I think hype and buzz are definitely things year to year.

I also really feel that you can look to where you got invites for a clue as to where you will match. If you only got invited by one elite program.... ok you might not match there. But if every elite program sent you an invite them CLEARLY you are what they are looking for and would probably actually be much less likely to fall below #1.

 

[member000000000]

Do they have this information for each school? Or would you have to contact the school directly? I haven't been able to find this information.

 

[Cytarabine]

Do they have this information for each school? Or would you have to contact the school directly? I haven't been able to find this information.

I don't believe schools know their students' ROLs, but I may be wrong

 

[Omar Little]

Hey, I'm in the same position you are and I don't have any special insight into this, but I think it varies so much that you won't really get a good answer. The numbers above are reassuring, I guess, but there are just too many variables. Some variables I can think of are:

-How good of an interviewer you are and your social skills
-The quality or desirability of the program itself -- my guess is that if your top 4 are all highly competitive and desirable programs it will make it harder to match there. Conversely, might be easier to hit your #1 if it is a smaller, less known program
-The number of interview invites a program grants -- a program that interviews a ton of people might make it harder for you to get your #1 choice
-Specific program directives -- are they looking for a 'diverse' class, lots of phds, geographic variability

I think the biggest factors is probably #1 and thankfully the one you could have controlled the most. I know its really stressful, but there's nothing we can do about it anymore. Speaking personally, my top 4 seem to be liked by many other people on the interview trail, so I'm not holding my breath and would be really surprised if I matched in my top 4

As for the stress, I'm trying to remember why I wanted to be a pediatrician in the first place (remember, its not about where you train, but what kind of doctor you are). this is not working so I'm drinking a lot of beer, watching netflix, spending way too much time on sdn, and drinking more beer.

#2! 🙂