congrats!! i got one last week too. based on the stats from the ADEA book...1150 californians applied, 150 got an interview, and 57 got accepted. so we basically have a 33% chance if we get an interview. good luck to us!!
it says that 147 people were accepted provisionally and 85 enrolled.
I don't know how many people got invited for an interview so I can't tell you the percentages.
but if you have an interview in oct/nov, your chances are probably higher than if you had an interview in the spring. so your chances are probably much better than 30%.