Read Before Freaking Out about Numbers!

[Wiingy]

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So I found this on the Pre-Allo thread (much credit to whoever found it first) and it did A LOT to alleviate my fears. This table essentially takes the guesswork out of "will my MCAT make up for my GPA/vice versa?" type questions. Please keep in mind that this does NOT mean that this chart means you have x% of getting in somewhere, nor does it take into account any factors like EC's, URM status, or family history. Like all statistics, take with a grain of salt, and don't get lulled into a sense of complacency and stop working on your app. Enjoy....

http://www.aamc.org/data/facts/2008/mcatgpa-grid-3yrs-app-accpt.htm

 

[Mobius1985]

This looks like a good place to add the graphical representation of the data:

Put it in an excel graph real quick:

What does this mean? It seems that there is a big jump in acceptance when you reach 3.4 in your GPA. The jumps are smaller after that.

Meaning, it seems medical schools tend to look for a minimum of 3.4 as evidence of enough capability so that GPA isn't a huge hinderence. Obviously, higher the better as with anything else, but there isn't a huge difference after 3.6, and probably not worth worrying too much about improving your GPA once you hit that number.

MCAT, there is a big benefit of every point until about 32-33. Then it starts to drop off, so much so that after 36, there seems to be very little benefit in getting that extra point and not worth worrying about improving the MCAT after 35.

What does this mean from strategy perspective? If your GPA is below 3.4, you should first spend some time to get it up to that point. After that, if you have a choice between GPA and MCAT, your best bet is to focus on the MCAT until it is around 33. Conversely, if your MCAT is 33+, then your highest yield might be spending a year and trying to get your GPA to 3.4. If your GPA is already a 3.6, and/or your MCAT is a 33, you should focus on another part of your application.

3.6 and 35 seem to be the points where you get diminishing returns, while 3.4 and 30 seem to be the 'big' jump points for minimum qualification.

Pretty much stuff we had guessed, but it seems to be validated by data.

 

[Mobius1985]

I would add that ereryone from low to upper stat folks should use caution in looking at this data. It does not include mitigating factors, like stand-out extracurriculars, non-traditional age, legacy factor, membership of an underrepresented population group, non-native English speakers, interest in rural med, first family member to attend college, economic disadvantage, etc. Those whose data make up the successful applicant statistics are likely those who did everything they could to make their applications the best they could be. It would be a mistake to look at the grid and decide that your chances were good enough, and to cease efforts at improving your application in every way possible.

 

[flip26]

I would add that lower stat folks should use caution in looking at this data. It does not include mitigating factors, like great extracurriculars, non-traditional age, legacy factor, membership of an underrepresented population group, non-native English speakers, interest in rural med, first family member to attend college, economic disadvantage, etc. Those whose data make up the successful applicant statistics are likely those who did everything they could to make their applications the best they could be. It would be a mistake to look at the grid and decide that your chances were good enough, and to cease efforts at improving your application in every way possible.

Agreed.

At the low end for GPA and/or MCAT, there is a lot of "self selection" by applicants - applicants who know they have some other compelling or mitigating factors in their app such as a PhD after a weak undergrad.

In other words, the stats in the chart for a particular GPA / MCAT combo apply only to the people who actually applied with those stats, not the universe of people who have those same stats but chose to NOT apply for what should be fairly obvious reasons.

For that reason, I believe that the actual "odds" for people on the low end of the GPA and MCAT scales are much lower than this AAMC chart suggests.

 

[cubssox2000]

In the other tread, there were a lot of people who were misinterpreting the data. Here is the post I made to explain things. This should explain why it looks like a high percentage of people get in with lower score.

I am not a statistics person, but I would have to say that the sample size is a bit small in comparison to the rest of the chart.

In the example by the OP, 20% of people with 3.8+ and and 18-20 MCAT get accepted. Looking at the chart, 99 people out of 515 got accepted from this category. But, looking at total applicants, there were 784 applicants at under 20 MCAT and 3.8+ GPA out of 23850 total in the 3.8+ range. This means that out of all the applicants, 3.29% had an MCAT of 20 or less and a GPA of 3.8+. Now, if we look at the total number of people who got accepted with a 3.8+, we see that MCAT scores of 20 and less make up 119 acceptees out of 17676, which equals .673%. So in reality, people who have an MCAT of under 20 make up only slightly more than half a percent of accepted people. I think that shows that your MCAT really makes a difference, regardless of what your GPA might be.

Moving to 29 and under with 3.8+, there are 5753 acceptances out of the 17676. This equals 32.5%. So this chart actually shows that with an MCAT score of 30, you still have only ~35% chance of getting accepted regardless of GPA.

I think that this is the most telling part of the chart, along with the excel graph. 20% of people is a lot, except when it is out of 515, and that 515 is out of 17676 total acceptances in the range. When you think about, 20% of 3.29% is not very significant in any way.

If I made a miscalculation, please correct me.

 

[Lokhtar]

Wow, I'm getting quoted now? 😛

 

[sindadel]

Interesting data - thanks for graphing it, Lokhtar!

 

[Mobius1985]

Further refinement of this data can be found at: http://forums.studentdoctor.net/showthread.php?t=606875 .