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When you're trying to estimate your chances based off of other people's stats, bear in mind that there are so many factors that are incaculable and/or pertinent. As you well know, most premeds are intense, highly driven, and above all, insane. Just like you don't necessarily tell everyone your whole life story, neither do other people. That guy that you heard about that got into XYZ school with so and such crappy GPA and blah MCAT score may be in a unique situation that they don't readily discuss with others. Maybe they're a veteran? Maybe they're an URM? Maybe they've got some really great LOR? We don't know why or how each individual committee will make their decision, likewise the composition of the committee on any given day.
Just some food for thought.
Just some food for thought.