Speculation about stats from 2014-2015 cycle

[F1rstGen]

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I've noticed that this cycle has been overwhelmed by early applicants and was curious if everyone thought this was a result of:
1. Increasingly more students following the advice to apply early as well as an increased total number of applicants or...
2. Increased average applicant pool stats and neuroticism leading to the schools offering more interview invites early in the cycle.
3. [Insert your own speculation/opinion below]

I base my curiosity on one ADCOM in another thread who stated that this cycle had more July completed files than ever before. I also notice that my state school has already filed all interview slots earlier than December. Is this unusual or commonplace? I'm interested to see the AAMC report of the average MCAT/gpa following this cycle b/c it seems that a 34/3.9 accepted average is not outside the realm of possibility.

 

[Alfie99]

There is no way the averages would jump that much in a year. According to this: https://www.aamc.org/download/321494/data/2013factstable17.pdf the total MCAT for matriculants hasn't really budged in four years and it has taken eleven years to go up 1.7 points. I think there is a tendency for those with better stats to post their stats. Plus, the students who frequently read and post on student doctor network do not represent the total population. There was over 48,000 students who applied to medical school last year and although I am not sure about the number of applicants posting here, I am sure it would only be a small percentage of that number.

 

[ColorfulBlue]

I think that there may be a larger number of applicants (with a full spectrum of stats) applying this year. I have noticed some of the threads have are getting much more attention this early in the cycle compared to last year. For example, the interview invite thread has at least 5 pages and it is only mid-August.

 

[ThisCouldBeYou]

I think that there may be a larger number of applicants (with a full spectrum of stats) applying this year. I have noticed some of the threads have are getting much more attention this early in the cycle compared to last year. For example, the interview invite thread has at least 5 pages and it is only mid-August.

My theory is that the interviews are in cycles, of sorts. The first one included many more schools early on because applications came in so early. I haven't gone over there to check the interview thread out, but are there more schools listed, or it is simply the thread shows repeats again and again, with each new post adding only one school a time? These two reasons can explain why that post is now on page 5.

I think the reason why applicants applied early is because of what happened last year. The AMCAS delay of ~ a week affected not only the anxiety of applying, but also led the schools and AMCAS timing to be more responsive.

I also speculate the number of applicants is about the same from last year, but each applicant is applying to many more schools. Plus, applicants are applying "more broadly", so the "lower tier schools" are getting far more applications than in years past. By contrast, top schools applications will not show as large an increase in the number of applications.