Stats of the unmatched in 2010 NRMP

[liliequist]

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I'm posting this not because I'm trying to be a downer the day before everyone finds out if they matched or not. I'm posting this for those who don't match tomorrow. Personally I know that I want hard data, stats and a general lay of the land to process being unmatched if this happens to me. And I assume there are others out there that might feel the same.
Apologies if you've seen this already.

Here's a study of the 2010 NRMP that polled academic deans of medical schools for stats on their unmatched seniors and those who still didn't match after the scramble. Punchline in case you don't feel like downloading:

"After the 2010 NRMP, there were for the first time more unmatched US MD seniors (1078) than available PGY-1 positions (1060)."

"The rate of unmatched US seniors has been stable at 6-7% during the past 5 years, however the number of unfilled PGY-1 positions has decreased."

"1.2% of qualified US seniors did not match into a PGY-1 position after the scramble."

"The leading reasons reported for qualified students' failure to obtain a PGY-1 position were "not competitive for first-choice specialty" and "USMLE score issues."

 

[Law2Doc]

I'm posting this not because I'm trying to be a downer the day before everyone finds out if they matched or not. I'm posting this for those who don't match tomorrow. Personally I know that I want hard data, stats and a general lay of the land to process being unmatched if this happens to me. And I assume there are others out there that might feel the same.
Apologies if you've seen this already.

Here's a study of the 2010 NRMP that polled academic deans of medical schools for stats on their unmatched seniors and those who still didn't match after the scramble. Punchline in case you don't feel like downloading:

"After the 2010 NRMP, there were for the first time more unmatched US MD seniors (1078) than available PGY-1 positions (1060)."

"The rate of unmatched US seniors has been stable at 6-7% during the past 5 years, however the number of unfilled PGY-1 positions has decreased."

"1.2% of qualified US seniors did not match into a PGY-1 position after the scramble."

"The leading reasons reported for qualified students' failure to obtain a PGY-1 position were "not competitive for first-choice specialty" and "USMLE score issues."

I'm betting that with class sizes continuing to outpace residency slots, these stats will be marginally worse in 2011. Just means folks have to be realistic about the specialty they choose and the number of places they interview at. Bear in mind that even given the stats above, 93% of US seniors still match, and most match into one of their top choices. But if you find yourself in the scramble, just bear in mind that you will have more peers than in prior years, and so being realistic and fast will be a good idea.

 

[NOsquid]

Yeah, match was a bloodbath last year 🙁 per the numbers, seems like just an unfortunate time to be a senior. Bigger classes but residency spots haven't caught up.

 

[Eat Oatmeal]

I found it somewhat relieving that 77% of the US scramblers found a position at the end. My impression was that it was difficult to find a spot. period.

 

[notdeadyet]

Yeah, match was a bloodbath last year 🙁 per the numbers, seems like just an unfortunate time to be a senior. Bigger classes but residency spots haven't caught up.

I don't see that changing. The point of increasing medical school enrollment was to fill unfilled residency slots without relying on international recruits.

 

[McGillGrad]

I don't see that changing. The point of increasing medical school enrollment was to fill unfilled residency slots without relying on international recruits.

Exactly, because the US is not going to:

1) outright ban 99% of IMGs (which the UK has recently done) or;

2) make it impossible for non-Canadian IMGs to find a spot (such as in Canada). Not to mention that there is almost 1 candidate per spot already in Canada.

 

[NOsquid]

I don't see that changing. The point of increasing medical school enrollment was to fill unfilled residency slots without relying on international recruits.

I did not know this. Yikes.