My worst nightmare came true - Step2CK was a disaster, and I only got a 235. All my practice tests predicted 250+. My Step 1 was also in the low 230s. So far, I am interested in Gas, EM, and IM. The various dean and program director all stated that Step 2 CK score should be 10 pts higher than Step 1. Since my Step 2CK is almost 10 points below the national average for those specialties and show no improvement over Step 1 - do you think this will hinder me during the match next year? Thanks!!
According to NRMP Charting Outcomes (2016):
Gas
-Step 1 scores between 231-240: 221 matched, 3 unmatched
-Step 2CK scores between 231-240: 214 matched, 6 unmatched
-Mean Step 1 score (matched): 232
-Mean Step 1 score (unmatched): 209
-Mean Step 2CK score (matched): 242
-Mean Step 2CK score (unmatched): 224
EM
-Step 1 scores between 231-240: 323 matched, 19 unmatched
-Step 2CK scores between 231-240: 297 matched, 33 unmatched
-Mean Step 1 score (matched): 233
-Mean Step 1 score (unmatched): 220
-Mean Step 2CK score (matched): 245
-Mean Step 2CK score (unmatched): 232
IM
-Step 1 scores between 231-240: 592 matched, 3 unmatched
-Step 2CK scores between 231-240: 534 matched, 8 unmatched
-Mean Step 1 score (matched): 233
-Mean Step 1 score (unmatched): 210
-Mean Step 2CK score (matched): 246
-Mean Step 2CK score (unmatched): 225
You probably have a strong chance of matching if you're geographically flexible and interview well enough, though it looks like EM is slightly tougher than gas and IM.
Also, getting 230s in Step 1 and 2CK shouldn't be your "worst nightmare c[o]me true"! It's still a respectable score (outside of SDN at least). There are people who do worse and still match in gas, EM, or IM. You're right around the mean for all three specialties in Step 1, and you're just below the mean for Step 2CK. But the mean is just that, and again there are people who fall below the mean.