yes, and even if that doesn’t happen, all it takes is the fear of it happening to drastically change applicant preferences. Pretty soon, I suspect general surgery will have a <50% match rate with many of the sub specialties being <30% for MDs with virtually no DOs matching aside from historic DO programs
How is it lack of insight? My school literally published the results of the survey with this year and past year data
How were you able to come up with such “accurate” head count?
Please post the link to the paper, or to the survey results so that we may independently review. You used the word “assume” in the initial post. If the survey stated that the reason behind students’ specialty choices included fear of AI in non-surgical specialties, then you wouldn’t need to assume. So presumably the survey just told you what prior classes matched into.
Pretty much finished with core rotations
Ophthalmology is a non-surgical field?
Sorry, just slipped with that. Yes it is lol.
No, they want to apply to surgical subspecialties because they are extremely lucrative, and they want to pay off their medical school debts as fast as possible.
The second order effect of AI is likely going to be seeing more patients is my guess as economic forces are going to astutely realize there is underutilized labor on the table (less note writing time). Not sure if it’s worse than what we have. Regardless, it makes things interesting.
Oh yeah most definitely. If I had good generative AI doing all my notes I’d add an hour at least of clinic per day and still be done earlier than I am now. Add in an AI that chart reviews for me and gives me a truly meaningful highlight reel of their story would save me even more time.
What exactly do you mean "AI fears??"
If you do a post history search, OP has multiple posts that they believe the majority of non-proceduralist doctors will be replaced by AI or AI + NP/PA within the next decade.
So you're now an expert on all the non surgical fields
No but hospitals will do whatever it takes to save money and for the next patient you see put their history, vitals, physical, lab and see how well it does with assessment and plan. In 90/100 cases it’s spot on
Even with your wild assumptions that can’t be substantiated, all this training if you haven’t realized yet is for that 10/100 that need an expert.
Bro, literally 85 of the 115 in my starting med school class stood up and announced they were going to be surgeons (half of those were claiming ortho) at the beginning orientation when we were asked to introduce ourselves. I literally counted because I wanted to see how many actually ended up surgeons.
Every student who is aiming for a competitive specialty should have a backup plan. This was true before Step 1 went P/F.
True but I feel like it’s much harder to bomb step 2. I think the Median is like 256 and standard deviation is super low
You encourage them to see that there are still doors open to them to be a doctor, even though others are closed, and then let them make the decision.
The good thing about step 1 is that it is typically earlier in the process so you have more time to adjust your research moving forward as well as 4th year curriculum , letters and aways etc. The worry I have is step 2 is after 3rd year and so it does not give much time to recover. Also if you did not do well on Step 1 but did really well in Step 2 it would still give you a shot at a competitive field .
outpatient medicine..... I know most surgeons fail to think life outside the hospital exists (well aside from ent, uro, plastics, and some nsgy/ortho) but outpatient medicine free from hospitals is a thing and a large component of medicine lol
Take step 2 earlier
Those days are gone. Time to move on.
So the vaccines are bad after all, it's just that they cause singleness, not autism. 😉
I don't see how it would be a good pubmed study based on your hearsay, but hey, power to you if you can find nationwide evidence of that (my guess is, you won't)
Easy…. survey aboht pre and post ai specialty preferences. Literally like 75% of medicine pubs rn are these type of stupid surveys
My point is that I doubt your results are born out anywhere else. And your results likely don't account for people after rotations, when due to exposure/lifestyle/competiveness many of your classmates will suddenly find newfound interests in IM or primary care.
Im an intern that is still in touch w friend below me, we have 15 applying rads as M4s
You sure seem addicted to the idea that your classmates are somehow representative of all the other classes in the 140 + MD schools in the United States. One can see a great deal of variation even between one class and the next at a single medical school in their specialty choices.
While I generally agree with everyone that AI will not take over or take our jobs, but this statement alone says there will be less of a need for rad in the future.
Perhaps.
It’s likely a large enough sample to be statistically significant. Also the most recent eras data supports it. Gen surg/subs all up while radiology -7% in applications
1. A 1 year dip does not a trend make - consider the changes from 2020 to 2023, where the number of unmatched applicants doubled in the field. And while you may be correct about surgery applicant #s increasing, you're falling for the correlation does not equal causation trap. You have no proof that this 1 year "drop" in radiology is causing an increase in surgical specialties.
