Thoughts on chances at top programs?

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Wow, let me start by saying congratulations on a terrific turnaround! I have never sat on an adcom but I think if you get some good rec letters and again get a good step 2 score that you should match at a very good program. The second year repeat does raise a red flag and would leave me wondering (if I were reviewing your app) what might have gone wrong and whether there was a significant chance of things derailing again. Your subsequent performance, however, paints a very positive picture and will likely overshadow the second year issue. The pubs also help provide a significant nudge.

I think you should apply a little wider than someone with your stats normally would, but assuming you keep doing this well if you make a list of any 10 programs you are interested in you will probably match at one of them, and likely one of your real first choices (but send more applications just in case, you can always turn interviews down!).
 
I think you would have a shot.

MGH or UCSF would probably pass, but (based on the profiles of other students I know who have matriculated there) certainly UW, UCLA, Cambridge, Duke etc should be willing to take a look.
 
Yeah apply broadly. I thought I was a decent candidate with no red flags, but didn't hear back from many top tier programs. Applied to 29 programs. Got invites from about 24? (lost count). These last five or so have either given me a rejection, waitlist, or no response.

Yeah like Psychotic, I thought I would fare a little better with those big programs. Oh well. Maybe times are changing.
 
Like others have said, apply broadly. Psych is one of the better fields for second chances and looking at the individual as a person pretty closely. Your Step 1 shows that you obviously learned the material that your M2 failures would give concern for, and you seem to have done well since. Work hard on a good personal statement (be authentic and let your individual personality show) and you'll likely get interviews at many (but not all) top programs and if you interview well, you'll likely match at one of your top choices.
 
insanelyhighnut can you mention the programs that didn't give you interviews?
 
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