What I heard last year from some programs I interviewed at was that there were a lot more "good students" applying to path residency. This went along with a general increase in the number of applicants from US med schools.
I also heard, however, that if you are a highly competitive candidate, things really didn't change much. A lot of the increase came from the "average" medical student population. I know that sounds a bit trite and condescending, but in truth the "average" medical student is very smart, will do well, and is the kind of person most residencies want to have. What it means for programs is that they have an easier time filling their full quota with people who they are happy to have with them.
Almost every interview I went on, I asked program directors (or someone on the admissions committee) if they thought that the increasing #s of applicants meant that it would be harder to match into pathology. Most of them said no. They said they thought it meant that both applicants and programs would be able to be more selective and pick the one (the applicant or the program, depending on who you are) that was right for them. I was told that for top candidates, it is still a "buyers' market," that is, the candidate is the one who has the advantage and is more likely to get what they want.
It has always been tough for applicants to match into top programs, that is unlikely to change. And, top candidates have always been able to get one of their top choices. That is also unlikely to change.
What it does mean, I think, is that it may start to get tougher for IMGs to find a residency spot, especially at university programs and better community programs where traditionally there have been lots. There are lots of path programs out there, don't forget, and despite the increase last year there were still quite a few unfilled spots after the match.
BTW, if we had had a "Pathology interest meeting" at my med school for my class, the only people that would have shown up would have been me and a couple of gunners who thought their grades would get better if they showed up. I was the only one in my class, although one other person did think seriously about it.
And another BTW - when the "CSI bounce" happens in a couple of years things may get more competitive, I'm not sure (like the ER bounce, everyone who sees these TV shows now wants a career like that, so just as ER residency seemingly became more popular overnight, and people went to med school for the express purpose of going into ER, I am wondering if the same is going to happen with forensics...). Maybe when people realize that being a forensic pathologist very rarely involves going to crime scenes, chasing criminals, going undercover at strip clubs, and being shot at, they may reconsider though.