Two interviews left; need help

[WiseGuy1]

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I really need help deciding if I should go to my last two interviews. I have already been on 11-12 interviews and I am really tired of travelling. If I were to match at my top 4-5 choices, I would be quite happy, but if I were to drop past #5, I would be very disappointed. These last two schools would probably be 5-6 on my list. I know for a fact these last two programs wouldn't crack my top three, but I would definitely prefer to go to one of these two programs than to match at a program ranked lower on my list.

If it helps any, I go to a great school, but I am a very average applicant. Applying to IM.

Also, of the remaining two programs, one is a solid top 15 program (but would be ranked lower solely based on location) and the other is a middle-of-the-road university program.
Thanks for all the replies.

 

[armybound]

When I was starting to burn out and looking at whether or not I wanted to go to my last interviews, I thought about whether I needed those programs on my rank list to improve my chances of matching at all, then debated where I would put them on my list and compared that to what it would cost.

It sounds to me like you should take at least one of them. It seems like you need to flesh out that "almost top" area of your rank list, and if one of those programs is going to fill that spot, you should do it. If you feel good having just one of them on there, cancel the other.

Like you, I was debating a fairly good program that would be solidly in the middle of my list, but it was going to cost me way more than I wanted to pay to go there. I already had 6-7 options I'd be quite happy with and felt my chances in my top 3 were pretty good, so I declined the interview.

 

[Noegrus]

No one else can make that decision but you. It's always 'what if I don't match!'. I am doing three more just for that goddamn reason - to have backups. I canceled my two tail-end interviews because I was just too exhausted from all the traveling and waking up at 3 am to catch the train/plane and I have other things to worry about around the end of interview season.

 

[Sheldor]

Per the NRMP data that I saw referenced once 85% match in their top 5. So if you want to be analytical about it, you know the odds, so the question is how comfortable are you that there is a 15% chance you could match at a program you aren't excited about?

 

[duckie99]

For IM your chances of matching do not significantly increase when you start ranking more than 6 programs. In fact, a higher percentage of people who ranked 7 matched compared to people who ranked 8.

So if you don't want to go below your current #5 I would interview at the one you think may be #5. That way you'd be happy with your top 6 and will very likely match into one of them. For what it's worth I only interviewed at 6 programs for IM (3 high quality, 1 medium-high, 2 mediumish) as a decent applicant overall I feel pretty comfortable. I think only one is considered competitive. I'm generally happy with my top 4 and turned down all remaining interviews due to cost and likelihood that I wouldn't rank them very high. Regardless IM isn't hard to match. Remember most programs have 40 some odd spots so chances are you'll match in your top 3. The majority do.

 

[shan564]

For IM your chances of matching do not significantly increase when you start ranking more than 6 programs. In fact, a higher percentage of people who ranked 7 matched compared to people who ranked 8..

I think the reason for that is because IMGs tend to rank more places and have lower match rates... so once you get up to about 8-10, you probably have a lot of IMGs on the list that artificially deflate the numbers. If you look at American grads alone, I'm sure that an increased number of programs ranked would translate to a higher match rate.

Also, I've noticed that some people have longer rank lists because they're applying to multiple specialties. I don't think the NRMP data makes a distinction in that regard. So a person might match into a different specialty, and they're recorded as "unmatched".

 

[duckie99]

I think the reason for that is because IMGs tend to rank more places and have lower match rates... so once you get up to about 8-10, you probably have a lot of IMGs on the list that artificially deflate the numbers. If you look at American grads alone, I'm sure that an increased number of programs ranked would translate to a higher match rate.

Also, I've noticed that some people have longer rank lists because they're applying to multiple specialties. I don't think the NRMP data makes a distinction in that regard. So a person might match into a different specialty, and they're recorded as "unmatched".

"Charting outcomes in the match" distinguishes between US seniors and independent applicants. It's available online for all to see and the next one will be out in august. So my statement that those who rank 7 have a higher percentage that match compared to those who rank 8 applies to US grads... Now I think the reason for this is that generally less competitive applicants will rank more programs, naturally. But my original point of the number of programs you rank not really making a difference after 6 still stands.

I'm not totally clear how the NRMP counts those who rank multiple fields.

 

[shan564]

Oh yeah, forgot about that.

 

[Law2Doc]

Per the NRMP data that I saw referenced once 85% match in their top 5. So if you want to be analytical about it, you know the odds, so the question is how comfortable are you that there is a 15% chance you could match at a program you aren't excited about?

First, I believe it's 85% of those US allo grads who match, so the 7% who end up in SOAP have to be added to this? It's not a 15% chance, it's a 22% chance of matching at a less desirable place or not at all. Second, you are lumping together specialties, so this figure is not really helpful. If 100% of people going into X specialty and Y specialty get one of their first three choices, then someone applying to Z specialty may have worse statistics for getting one of their top three. Speaking anecdotally, I knew quite a few people who ended up going pretty deep on their rank lists.

So if the places you are looking at might be 5th or 6th, I think you have to go. If you told us they would be 13th or 14th, then my answer might be different, depending on your level of competitiveness for the specialty you seek.